Projection built 2026-08-06 13:25 UTC; everything else read 2026-08-06 13:33 UTC · every figure
per game or per cent, so clubs from divisions with different fixture counts sit in one table.
The 20 clubs starting this season did not all come from the same place:
14 from the 3. Liga · 2 from the 2. Bundesliga. The club order is the same in all eight tables, sorted by our projection, so you can
follow one club straight down the page — from what it did last season to what we expect of it.
Projected points per game with the error we measured on the method itself
(±0.251 a game). The bands overlap almost everywhere, which is the honest picture of
what a projection for this division can and cannot tell you.
1 · Where they come from, and last season's record
Club
Came from
Pos
Played
W–D–L
Pts/game
Home pts/g
Away pts/g
Last 6 pts/g
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2. Bundesliga
17
34
11–4–19
1.09
1.41
0.76
1.00
Preußen Münster
2. Bundesliga
18
34
6–12–16
0.88
1.00
0.76
0.50
Hansa Rostock
3. Liga
5
38
18–13–7
1.76
1.68
1.84
1.83
RW Essen
3. Liga
3
38
20–10–8
1.84
2.11
1.58
1.50
Duisburg
3. Liga
4
38
19–11–8
1.79
2.47
1.11
1.83
SC Verl
3. Liga
6
38
18–10–10
1.68
2.11
1.26
1.67
Wehen Wiesbaden
3. Liga
9
38
15–8–15
1.40
1.84
0.95
0.83
Alemannia Aachen
3. Liga
7
38
19–7–12
1.68
1.53
1.84
2.67
1. FC Saarbrücken
3. Liga
15
38
10–14–14
1.16
1.63
0.68
1.17
Viktoria Köln
3. Liga
11
38
15–6–17
1.34
1.42
1.26
1.17
Ingolstadt
3. Liga
12
38
13–10–15
1.29
1.21
1.37
1.50
Waldhof Mannheim
3. Liga
10
38
15–7–16
1.37
1.79
0.95
0.83
Stuttgart II
3. Liga
14
38
13–7–18
1.21
1.63
0.79
0.67
Hoffenheim II
3. Liga
16
38
12–7–19
1.13
1.21
1.05
0.67
Jahn Regensburg
3. Liga
13
38
14–7–17
1.29
1.58
1.00
1.17
TSV Havelse
3. Liga
17
38
9–8–21
0.92
1.32
0.53
1.50
Fortuna Köln
outside our data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
outside our data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
SV Meppen
outside our data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Würzburger Kickers
outside our data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
These rows are not like for like, and that is the point.
The clubs down from a higher division made their numbers against stronger opposition; the ones
promoted made theirs against weaker, over a different number of games. The projection in the last
table is where that is corrected — it applies the measured move between divisions rather than
taking last season at face value.
2 · Goals against expected goals
Club
Scored /g
xG /g
Scored − xG
Conceded /g
xGA /g
Conceded − xGA
Goal diff /g
Stats from
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0.97
1.20
-0.22
1.56
1.50
+0.06
-0.59
34 of 34
Preußen Münster
1.12
1.19
-0.07
1.79
1.77
+0.03
-0.68
34 of 34
Hansa Rostock
1.95
2.04
-0.10
1.29
1.48
-0.20
+0.66
30 of 38
RW Essen
2.05
1.69
+0.36
1.74
1.65
+0.08
+0.32
29 of 38
Duisburg
1.74
1.52
+0.22
1.29
1.23
+0.06
+0.45
30 of 38
SC Verl
2.16
1.56
+0.59
1.26
1.18
+0.08
+0.90
30 of 38
Wehen Wiesbaden
1.42
1.51
-0.09
1.37
1.53
-0.16
+0.05
31 of 38
Alemannia Aachen
2.00
1.43
+0.57
1.50
1.65
-0.15
+0.50
31 of 38
1. FC Saarbrücken
1.34
1.74
-0.40
1.50
1.64
-0.14
-0.16
30 of 38
Viktoria Köln
1.34
1.39
-0.05
1.40
1.42
-0.02
-0.05
31 of 38
Ingolstadt
1.71
1.79
-0.08
1.47
1.48
-0.01
+0.24
30 of 38
Waldhof Mannheim
1.55
1.60
-0.04
1.90
1.48
+0.42
-0.34
30 of 38
Stuttgart II
1.50
1.69
-0.19
1.82
1.86
-0.05
-0.32
30 of 38
Hoffenheim II
1.71
1.78
-0.07
1.87
2.05
-0.18
-0.16
31 of 38
Jahn Regensburg
1.42
1.63
-0.21
1.53
1.62
-0.10
-0.10
31 of 38
TSV Havelse
1.50
1.43
+0.07
2.34
2.27
+0.08
-0.84
29 of 38
Fortuna Köln
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
SV Meppen
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Würzburger Kickers
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
A club scoring above its xG finished better than the chances it made; a club
conceding above its xGA was punished more than the chances it gave up. It is a description of last
season, not a forecast of the next one, and the last column says on how many games the underlying
figures were actually measured.
3 · What their matches looked like
Club
Clean sheets
Failed to score
Both scored
3+ goals
Goals/game
Biggest win
Heaviest defeat
Longest unbeaten
Longest winless
Fortuna Düsseldorf
15%
38%
53%
56%
2.53
3–1
1–5
3
5
Preußen Münster
12%
29%
71%
62%
2.91
3–1
0–6
3
10
Hansa Rostock
32%
21%
58%
63%
3.24
5–0
0–3
12
4
RW Essen
16%
5%
82%
68%
3.79
3–0
1–6
9
3
Duisburg
29%
21%
66%
63%
3.03
4–0
1–6
10
5
SC Verl
26%
13%
66%
74%
3.42
5–0
0–2
12
4
Wehen Wiesbaden
29%
24%
55%
55%
2.79
6–1
0–3
5
9
Alemannia Aachen
13%
18%
71%
74%
3.50
6–1
0–3
12
6
1. FC Saarbrücken
18%
26%
63%
45%
2.84
4–1
0–3
7
16
Viktoria Köln
29%
32%
47%
53%
2.74
3–0
1–5
4
4
Ingolstadt
18%
16%
74%
71%
3.18
6–2
1–4
7
5
Waldhof Mannheim
11%
21%
68%
68%
3.45
6–1
0–4
3
6
Stuttgart II
13%
21%
71%
71%
3.32
6–1
0–5
3
4
Hoffenheim II
13%
16%
74%
71%
3.58
5–1
0–4
4
7
Jahn Regensburg
21%
32%
50%
55%
2.95
4–0
0–4
3
4
TSV Havelse
8%
18%
76%
71%
3.84
4–0
0–5
4
14
Fortuna Köln
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
SV Meppen
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Würzburger Kickers
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Computed from our own match records, with promotion and relegation play-off legs
excluded so the games are the league season and nothing else.
4 · Halves, first goals and half-time positions
Club
Scored 1st/2nd half
After the break
Conceded 1st/2nd
Avg 1st goal
Avg 1st conceded
Led at HT
Of those, won
Trailed at HT
Of those, won
Fortuna Düsseldorf
14/19
58%
20/33
51'
56'
8
88%
11
2
Preußen Münster
15/24
62%
31/30
54'
49'
5
40%
15
1
Hansa Rostock
31/31
50%
17/19
51'
47'
9
89%
4
1
RW Essen
26/27
51%
19/32
50'
59'
11
82%
6
0
Duisburg
22/25
53%
22/20
50'
53'
8
100%
8
0
SC Verl
31/34
52%
16/21
44'
52'
14
57%
7
1
Wehen Wiesbaden
21/25
54%
17/27
57'
53'
9
78%
8
1
Alemannia Aachen
33/30
48%
18/26
43'
56'
13
69%
6
1
1. FC Saarbrücken
17/20
54%
26/22
41'
42'
7
71%
10
0
Viktoria Köln
18/24
57%
19/25
51'
47'
9
56%
10
1
Ingolstadt
23/29
56%
19/23
53'
50'
8
38%
8
1
Waldhof Mannheim
11/30
73%
27/33
56'
46'
8
62%
12
2
Stuttgart II
18/31
63%
16/35
53'
59'
5
100%
5
1
Hoffenheim II
26/24
48%
29/32
43'
47'
5
80%
10
0
Jahn Regensburg
22/20
48%
18/27
46'
53'
12
75%
8
0
TSV Havelse
11/35
76%
25/37
60'
52'
6
67%
11
2
Fortuna Köln
—/—
—
—/—
—'
—'
—
—
—
—
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
—/—
—
—/—
—'
—'
—
—
—
—
SV Meppen
—/—
—
—/—
—'
—'
—
—
—
—
Würzburger Kickers
—/—
—
—/—
—'
—'
—
—
—
—
5 · Style and discipline
Club
Possession
Shots /g
On target /g
Accuracy
Corners /g
Offsides /g
Fouls /g
Yellows /g
Reds, season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
49.3%
12.6
3.9
31%
4.4
1.8
12.3
2.90
7
Preußen Münster
51.4%
11.8
3.9
33%
4.2
1.1
13.8
2.97
7
Hansa Rostock
55.9%
14.2
5.5
39%
6.3
1.1
12.5
2.10
7
RW Essen
50.2%
14.8
5.7
38%
5.3
0.8
11.0
2.03
5
Duisburg
46.9%
11.4
4.4
38%
5.0
1.2
13.6
2.13
3
SC Verl
65.7%
14.4
5.3
37%
6.1
1.7
9.7
1.97
6
Wehen Wiesbaden
47.4%
12.5
4.8
38%
5.4
1.0
14.1
2.71
6
Alemannia Aachen
44.3%
11.7
4.7
40%
5.0
1.9
13.5
2.77
4
1. FC Saarbrücken
48.5%
15.0
4.9
33%
8.0
1.3
12.2
2.27
3
Viktoria Köln
50.9%
11.5
4.7
41%
4.5
1.1
14.1
2.61
2
Ingolstadt
47.6%
13.3
5.0
37%
4.3
2.0
11.7
1.90
3
Waldhof Mannheim
48.4%
13.2
4.5
34%
5.2
1.1
13.2
2.50
6
Stuttgart II
56.2%
13.9
4.9
35%
5.1
1.4
13.7
2.70
3
Hoffenheim II
55.3%
13.6
5.5
40%
4.2
1.2
11.4
2.48
4
Jahn Regensburg
46.2%
12.8
4.8
38%
5.3
1.4
13.4
2.52
3
TSV Havelse
44.1%
11.6
4.0
34%
4.4
0.9
12.2
2.17
3
Fortuna Köln
—%
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
—%
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
SV Meppen
—%
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Würzburger Kickers
—%
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
6 · Who is in the squad now
Club
Players
Avg age
23 or under
Nationalities
Top scorer last season
Most minutes last season
Avg rating
Ratings known
Fortuna Düsseldorf
22
24.5
11
3
Cédric Itten (15)
Florian Kastenmeier (2880)
6.74
34 of 41
Preußen Münster
24
25.1
13
4
Etienne Amenyido (6)
Jano ter Horst (2825)
6.70
47 of 60
Hansa Rostock
24
25.9
10
5
Emil Holten (11)
Benjamin Uphoff (2160)
6.91
27 of 27
RW Essen
23
24.4
9
2
Marek Janssen (9)
José-Enrique Ríos Alonso (1980)
6.73
47 of 48
Duisburg
28
25.0
6
6
Conor Noß (7)
Maximilian Braune (2250)
6.79
28 of 29
SC Verl
22
23.2
13
2
Berkan Taz (13)
Philipp Schulze (2340)
6.84
24 of 25
Wehen Wiesbaden
32
24.7
10
4
Moritz Flotho (8)
Jordy Gillekens (2092)
6.84
32 of 32
Alemannia Aachen
24
26.6
8
7
Mika Schroers (15)
Lars Gindorf (2048)
6.76
31 of 31
1. FC Saarbrücken
37
26.1
13
4
Florian Pick (7)
Phillip Menzel (2250)
6.91
43 of 44
Viktoria Köln
22
23.0
12
3
David Otto (8)
Lucas Wolf (1975)
6.77
28 of 28
Ingolstadt
29
24.2
13
4
Marcel Costly (13)
Marcel Costly (2286)
6.79
28 of 28
Waldhof Mannheim
28
25.5
9
7
Felix Lohkemper (12)
Niklas Hoffmann (1797)
6.78
29 of 29
Stuttgart II
26
22.0
21
3
Noah Darvich (6)
Florian Hellstern (1620)
6.89
33 of 33
Hoffenheim II
34
20.7
32
4
Deniz Zeitler (11)
Yannik Luhrs (1934)
6.81
41 of 41
Jahn Regensburg
29
24.6
12
2
Eric Hottmann (9)
Felix Gebhardt (2160)
6.79
30 of 30
TSV Havelse
27
26.4
8
3
Marko Ilic (5)
Semi Belkahia (1671)
6.87
57 of 60
Fortuna Köln
18
25.7
6
—
—
—
—
0 of 0
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
—
—
0
—
—
—
—
0 of 0
SV Meppen
—
—
0
—
—
—
—
0 of 0
Würzburger Kickers
18
26.9
6
1
—
—
—
0 of 0
Squad as our club feed holds it today, with last season's goals and minutes
attached to the players who are still there. Ratings exist for part of each squad only, so the
column next to them says how much of the club the average actually covers.
7 · Value and summer business
Club
Squad value
Most valuable
Values known
In
Back from loan
Out
Minutes retained
Fortuna Düsseldorf
€6.5m
€940k
12 of 22
10
4
16
30%
Preußen Münster
€7.6m
€1.6m
13 of 24
5
3
9
54%
Hansa Rostock
€4.9m
€620k
14 of 24
3
2
4
70%
RW Essen
€5.1m
€750k
14 of 23
6
2
5
60%
Duisburg
€6.2m
€550k
17 of 28
5
3
4
99%
SC Verl
€2.7m
€495k
9 of 22
6
1
8
36%
Wehen Wiesbaden
€6.3m
€580k
20 of 32
2
0
4
91%
Alemannia Aachen
€4.4m
€695k
15 of 24
5
0
2
63%
1. FC Saarbrücken
€6.1m
€515k
19 of 37
12
0
5
77%
Viktoria Köln
€3.2m
€360k
12 of 22
3
1
6
61%
Ingolstadt
€4.5m
€620k
12 of 29
4
2
3
79%
Waldhof Mannheim
€4.3m
€440k
14 of 28
6
1
7
70%
Stuttgart II
€15.6m
€7.2m
11 of 26
3
1
1
62%
Hoffenheim II
€9.0m
€4.4m
7 of 34
3
2
3
53%
Jahn Regensburg
€5.6m
€1.4m
15 of 29
4
1
4
74%
TSV Havelse
€1.2m
€230k
7 of 27
4
0
6
85%
Fortuna Köln
—
—
0 of 18
4
1
2
—
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
—
—
0 of 0
0
0
0
—
SV Meppen
—
—
0 of 0
0
0
0
—
Würzburger Kickers
—
—
0 of 18
2
0
0
—
Squad value is the weakest column on this page. Values exist
for 211 of the 467 players in these squads and the gaps are not spread evenly — a club whose
total looks low may simply be a club we know less about, which is what "values known" is there to
tell you. Transfers are counted from 1 May, and our club feed returns only each club's most recent
movements, so the in/out counts are a floor rather than a full window.
8 · What our projection expects
Club
Projected pts/g
Over 38 games
Band, points
Ground
Capacity
Head coach
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.59
61
51–70
Merkur Spiel-Arena
54 600
Alexander Ende
Preußen Münster
1.49
56
47–66
LVM-Preußenstadion
18 050
Kieran Schulze-Marmeling
Hansa Rostock
1.44
55
45–64
Ostseestadion
29 000
Daniel Brinkmann
RW Essen
1.43
54
45–64
Stadion an der Hafenstraße
20 650
not recorded
Duisburg
1.42
54
44–63
Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena
31 514
Dietmar Hirsch
SC Verl
1.41
54
44–63
SPORTCLUB Arena
5 207
Tobias Strobl
Wehen Wiesbaden
1.41
54
44–63
BRITA-Arena
13 144
Daniel Scherning
Alemannia Aachen
1.41
54
44–63
Tivoli
32 960
Mersad Selimbegovic
1. FC Saarbrücken
1.39
53
43–62
Stadion Ludwigspark
16 003
Argirios Giannikis
Viktoria Köln
1.39
53
43–62
Sportpark Höhenberg
10 001
Marian Wilhelm
Ingolstadt
1.38
53
43–62
Audi-Sportpark
15 729
Sabrina Wittmann
Waldhof Mannheim
1.37
52
43–62
Carl-Benz-Stadion
25 667
not recorded
Stuttgart II
1.37
52
42–61
WIRmachenDRUCK Arena
10 001
Nico Willig
Hoffenheim II
1.35
51
42–61
Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion
6 350
Stefan Kleineheismann
Jahn Regensburg
1.35
51
42–61
Jahnstadion Regensburg
15 224
Sascha Hildmann
TSV Havelse
1.34
51
41–61
Eilenriedestadion
5 001
Samir Ferchichi
Fortuna Köln
—
—
not projected
Südstadion
14 944
not recorded
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach
—
—
not projected
WIRmachenDRUCK Arena
10 001
not recorded
SV Meppen
—
—
not projected
Hänsch-Arena
16 500
Lucas Beniermann
Würzburger Kickers
—
—
not projected
AKON ARENA
13 080
Markus Zschiesche
How wrong this is, measured. Holding out one season at a time
and predicting it from the others, the projection misses by 0.251 points a game
— 9.5 points over 38 games. Handing every club the league average instead misses
by 0.259; assuming last season repeats misses by 0.312. The band is
that measured error, not a confidence interval and not a prediction of final position.
Who leads what
Points per game — RW Essen 1.84, Duisburg 1.79, Hansa Rostock 1.76 (last season)
Expected goals made — Hansa Rostock 2.04, Ingolstadt 1.79, Hoffenheim II 1.78 (xG per game)
Players aged 23 or under — Hoffenheim II 32, Stuttgart II 21, Preußen Münster 13 (in the squad)
Nationalities in the squad — Alemannia Aachen 7, Waldhof Mannheim 7, Duisburg 6 (recorded)
All from last season, in whichever division the club played it.
What these numbers do not know
No transfers are priced in beyond counting them, no injuries, no coaching
changes, no budgets, no pre-season. Attendances are not in our source for this division, so the
capacity column is the ground rather than the crowd. Pass accuracy is not shown because the figure
our source returns for it is not a percentage and we will not print a number we cannot stand
behind. And this is not a betting product: where we can check this family of model against closing
odds it loses to the market.
Club by club, with full squads and every recorded arrival and departure:
3. Liga 2026/27 squads and projection.
The complete 2025/26 season for this division — every table, every match, every
player who played, in Excel and PDF — is in the free season packs.