2. Bundesliga 2026/27: all 18 clubs on the same numbers
Projection built 2026-08-06 13:24 UTC; everything else read 2026-08-06 13:33 UTC · every figure
per game or per cent, so clubs from divisions with different fixture counts sit in one table.
The 18 clubs starting this season did not all come from the same place:
13 from the 2. Bundesliga · 3 from the Bundesliga · 2 from the 3. Liga. The club order is the same in all eight tables, sorted by our projection, so you can
follow one club straight down the page — from what it did last season to what we expect of it.
Projected points per game with the error we measured on the method itself
(±0.225 a game). The bands overlap almost everywhere, which is the honest picture of
what a projection for this division can and cannot tell you.
1 · Where they come from, and last season's record
Club
Came from
Pos
Played
W–D–L
Pts/game
Home pts/g
Away pts/g
Last 6 pts/g
Wolfsburg
Bundesliga
16
34
7–8–19
0.85
0.59
1.12
1.33
St. Pauli
Bundesliga
18
34
6–8–20
0.77
1.00
0.53
0.17
Heidenheim
Bundesliga
17
34
6–8–20
0.77
1.00
0.53
1.67
Hannover
2. Bundesliga
4
34
16–12–6
1.76
1.59
1.94
1.67
Bochum
2. Bundesliga
9
34
11–11–12
1.29
1.71
0.88
1.83
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga
12
34
11–8–15
1.21
1.29
1.12
2.00
Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga
6
34
16–4–14
1.53
2.00
1.06
1.50
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga
10
34
12–8–14
1.29
1.76
0.82
1.17
Darmstadt
2. Bundesliga
5
34
13–13–8
1.53
2.06
1.00
0.33
Hertha BSC
2. Bundesliga
7
34
14–9–11
1.50
1.35
1.65
0.67
1. FC Nürnberg
2. Bundesliga
8
34
12–10–12
1.35
1.82
0.88
1.50
Magdeburg
2. Bundesliga
14
34
12–3–19
1.15
1.00
1.29
1.50
Greuther Fürth
2. Bundesliga
16
34
10–7–17
1.09
1.35
0.82
1.33
Braunschweig
2. Bundesliga
15
34
10–7–17
1.09
1.35
0.82
1.17
Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga
13
34
10–9–15
1.15
1.53
0.76
1.33
Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga
11
34
11–8–15
1.21
1.41
1.00
2.00
VfL Osnabrück
3. Liga
1
38
24–8–6
2.10
2.00
2.21
2.67
Energie Cottbus
3. Liga
2
38
21–9–8
1.90
2.11
1.68
2.00
These rows are not like for like, and that is the point.
The clubs down from a higher division made their numbers against stronger opposition; the ones
promoted made theirs against weaker, over a different number of games. The projection in the last
table is where that is corrected — it applies the measured move between divisions rather than
taking last season at face value.
2 · Goals against expected goals
Club
Scored /g
xG /g
Scored − xG
Conceded /g
xGA /g
Conceded − xGA
Goal diff /g
Stats from
Wolfsburg
1.32
1.41
-0.09
2.03
1.81
+0.21
-0.70
34 of 34
St. Pauli
0.85
0.92
-0.06
1.76
1.68
+0.08
-0.91
34 of 34
Heidenheim
1.21
1.41
-0.20
2.12
1.89
+0.23
-0.91
34 of 34
Hannover
1.76
1.75
+0.01
1.29
1.21
+0.09
+0.47
33 of 34
Bochum
1.44
1.65
-0.21
1.38
1.52
-0.14
+0.06
34 of 34
Holstein Kiel
1.29
1.23
+0.06
1.41
1.69
-0.28
-0.12
34 of 34
Kaiserslautern
1.53
1.43
+0.10
1.38
1.51
-0.13
+0.15
34 of 34
Karlsruher SC
1.56
1.30
+0.26
1.88
2.02
-0.14
-0.32
34 of 34
Darmstadt
1.68
1.79
-0.11
1.32
1.69
-0.37
+0.35
34 of 34
Hertha BSC
1.38
1.44
-0.05
1.29
1.72
-0.43
+0.09
34 of 34
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
1.27
+0.11
1.32
1.41
-0.08
+0.06
33 of 34
Magdeburg
1.53
1.82
-0.29
1.71
1.49
+0.21
-0.18
33 of 34
Greuther Fürth
1.44
1.29
+0.15
2.00
1.62
+0.38
-0.56
34 of 34
Braunschweig
1.06
1.25
-0.19
1.59
1.47
+0.12
-0.53
34 of 34
Arminia Bielefeld
1.56
1.59
-0.03
1.50
1.36
+0.14
+0.06
34 of 34
Dynamo Dresden
1.59
1.48
+0.11
1.56
1.33
+0.23
+0.03
34 of 34
VfL Osnabrück
1.74
1.58
+0.16
0.90
1.14
-0.25
+0.84
30 of 38
Energie Cottbus
1.90
1.92
-0.03
1.34
1.37
-0.03
+0.55
30 of 38
A club scoring above its xG finished better than the chances it made; a club
conceding above its xGA was punished more than the chances it gave up. It is a description of last
season, not a forecast of the next one, and the last column says on how many games the underlying
figures were actually measured.
3 · What their matches looked like
Club
Clean sheets
Failed to score
Both scored
3+ goals
Goals/game
Biggest win
Heaviest defeat
Longest unbeaten
Longest winless
Wolfsburg
6%
24%
74%
65%
3.35
3–1
1–8
3
12
St. Pauli
15%
38%
56%
56%
2.62
2–0
0–5
3
10
Heidenheim
3%
35%
62%
68%
3.32
3–1
0–6
3
15
Hannover
29%
12%
65%
68%
3.06
3–0
0–3
9
4
Bochum
24%
15%
68%
50%
2.82
3–0
1–4
10
6
Holstein Kiel
26%
15%
62%
53%
2.71
3–0
1–4
6
8
Kaiserslautern
26%
29%
47%
59%
2.91
3–0
0–4
4
3
Karlsruher SC
15%
29%
62%
76%
3.44
4–1
0–4
5
6
Darmstadt
29%
18%
62%
56%
3.00
4–0
1–3
13
9
Hertha BSC
35%
26%
47%
47%
2.68
3–0
1–6
6
6
1. FC Nürnberg
15%
26%
62%
53%
2.71
5–1
0–3
6
5
Magdeburg
21%
35%
47%
53%
3.24
3–0
0–4
5
7
Greuther Fürth
15%
29%
62%
68%
3.44
3–0
0–6
4
7
Braunschweig
18%
26%
59%
50%
2.65
2–0
1–4
4
6
Arminia Bielefeld
18%
21%
65%
53%
3.06
6–1
1–4
4
8
Dynamo Dresden
18%
15%
71%
71%
3.15
6–0
0–2
4
9
VfL Osnabrück
50%
18%
42%
45%
2.63
4–0
0–4
12
2
Energie Cottbus
26%
16%
66%
68%
3.24
5–0
1–4
10
3
Computed from our own match records, with promotion and relegation play-off legs
excluded so the games are the league season and nothing else.
4 · Halves, first goals and half-time positions
Club
Scored 1st/2nd half
After the break
Conceded 1st/2nd
Avg 1st goal
Avg 1st conceded
Led at HT
Of those, won
Trailed at HT
Of those, won
Wolfsburg
22/23
51%
26/43
43'
54'
10
50%
12
0
St. Pauli
11/18
62%
23/37
54'
50'
7
71%
16
0
Heidenheim
16/25
61%
33/39
54'
52'
7
43%
15
2
Hannover
27/31
53%
18/25
49'
52'
13
69%
6
2
Bochum
22/27
55%
21/26
52'
51'
9
78%
11
0
Holstein Kiel
21/23
52%
24/24
54'
48'
10
70%
10
0
Kaiserslautern
22/30
58%
19/28
52'
56'
10
90%
9
0
Karlsruher SC
17/36
68%
27/37
56'
51'
7
71%
13
1
Darmstadt
23/34
60%
25/20
50'
43'
6
50%
9
2
Hertha BSC
22/25
53%
17/27
53'
55'
12
58%
7
0
1. FC Nürnberg
22/22
50%
18/26
48'
57'
10
60%
6
1
Magdeburg
24/27
53%
24/32
55'
56'
9
89%
13
0
Greuther Fürth
21/28
57%
29/39
53'
49'
8
75%
13
0
Braunschweig
19/17
47%
24/30
48'
52'
9
78%
15
0
Arminia Bielefeld
21/32
60%
24/27
50'
45'
9
56%
12
2
Dynamo Dresden
32/22
41%
23/30
46'
52'
15
60%
9
0
VfL Osnabrück
21/34
62%
15/16
52'
44'
11
91%
8
3
Energie Cottbus
22/30
58%
15/24
53'
50'
11
64%
5
2
5 · Style and discipline
Club
Possession
Shots /g
On target /g
Accuracy
Corners /g
Offsides /g
Fouls /g
Yellows /g
Reds, season
Wolfsburg
45.3%
11.9
4.2
35%
4.4
1.3
11.5
2.00
6
St. Pauli
44.4%
10.3
3.4
33%
4.7
2.0
9.6
1.59
5
Heidenheim
42.3%
11.4
3.6
32%
4.5
1.9
9.8
1.50
3
Hannover
56.6%
14.0
5.4
39%
6.3
1.9
12.4
2.00
5
Bochum
45.8%
13.9
4.6
33%
5.0
1.6
13.4
3.16
3
Holstein Kiel
51.7%
11.9
3.6
31%
5.2
1.5
14.3
2.91
8
Kaiserslautern
47.6%
12.7
4.6
36%
4.7
1.3
12.2
2.55
6
Karlsruher SC
48.4%
11.9
4.2
35%
4.6
1.6
12.2
2.65
5
Darmstadt
51.4%
13.9
4.9
35%
4.8
1.4
11.5
1.85
9
Hertha BSC
48.7%
12.5
4.3
35%
4.4
1.9
12.4
2.39
7
1. FC Nürnberg
49.4%
12.3
4.3
35%
5.1
1.1
12.1
2.33
3
Magdeburg
54.1%
15.4
5.3
34%
5.2
1.8
11.4
2.45
4
Greuther Fürth
47.5%
11.9
4.1
34%
4.5
1.7
11.2
2.03
4
Braunschweig
43.8%
12.2
3.7
30%
4.7
1.6
12.5
2.24
12
Arminia Bielefeld
51.9%
14.8
4.6
31%
6.1
2.1
12.9
2.06
7
Dynamo Dresden
50.1%
12.9
4.3
33%
5.0
1.6
10.8
1.94
7
VfL Osnabrück
45.5%
12.3
4.9
40%
5.3
1.6
12.4
1.90
0
Energie Cottbus
52.4%
13.7
5.0
37%
6.2
1.1
12.2
1.90
6
6 · Who is in the squad now
Club
Players
Avg age
23 or under
Nationalities
Top scorer last season
Most minutes last season
Avg rating
Ratings known
Wolfsburg
34
25.7
14
14
Mohamed El Amine Amoura (8)
Kamil Grabara (3060)
6.67
30 of 37
St. Pauli
26
25.6
7
12
Danel Sinani (5)
Nikola Vasilj (3060)
6.67
24 of 32
Heidenheim
28
25.8
8
5
Budu Zivzivadze (6)
Patrick Mainka (3060)
6.74
28 of 33
Hannover
28
23.5
13
10
Benjamin Källman (14)
Nahuel Noll (2970)
6.83
26 of 29
Bochum
26
25.7
10
8
Philipp Hofmann (12)
Timo Horn (3060)
6.78
32 of 39
Holstein Kiel
32
23.5
17
10
Phil Harres (10)
David Zec (2734)
6.78
31 of 35
Kaiserslautern
27
24.0
11
9
Ivan Prtajin (11)
Julian Krahl (2880)
6.72
34 of 36
Karlsruher SC
27
23.8
15
7
Marvin Wanitzek (15)
Marvin Wanitzek (3060)
6.66
29 of 30
Darmstadt
23
25.7
5
11
Isac Lidberg (17)
Marcel Schuhen (3060)
6.85
27 of 30
Hertha BSC
23
24.1
12
6
Fabian Reese (10)
Tjark Ernst (2970)
6.77
31 of 38
1. FC Nürnberg
26
23.2
16
6
Mohamed Ali Zoma (14)
Jan Reichert (2880)
6.79
52 of 62
Magdeburg
24
25.5
10
7
Mateusz Żukowski (17)
Dominik Reimann (2970)
6.79
29 of 37
Greuther Fürth
29
24.2
14
5
Noel Futkeu (19)
Branimir Hrgota (2765)
6.64
34 of 42
Braunschweig
29
23.6
16
5
Mehmet Aydın (5)
Ron-Thorben Hoffmann (2880)
6.62
34 of 39
Arminia Bielefeld
24
25.6
4
4
Joel Grodowski (12)
Mael Corboz (2978)
6.75
30 of 35
Dynamo Dresden
27
25.2
8
4
Vincent Vermeij (11)
Tim Schreiber (2430)
6.79
30 of 33
VfL Osnabrück
24
25.1
11
4
Robin Meißner (12)
Lukas Jonsson (2430)
6.86
25 of 25
Energie Cottbus
25
25.5
9
5
Erik Engelhardt (16)
Erik Engelhardt (2149)
6.88
30 of 32
Squad as our club feed holds it today, with last season's goals and minutes
attached to the players who are still there. Ratings exist for part of each squad only, so the
column next to them says how much of the club the average actually covers.
7 · Value and summer business
Club
Squad value
Most valuable
Values known
In
Back from loan
Out
Minutes retained
Wolfsburg
€186.3m
€24.0m
26 of 34
8
7
10
82%
St. Pauli
€41.1m
€9.7m
17 of 26
3
2
7
58%
Heidenheim
€31.7m
€3.2m
21 of 28
4
4
5
70%
Hannover
€23.1m
€3.7m
17 of 28
4
4
7
63%
Bochum
€14.4m
€2.9m
16 of 26
10
3
8
47%
Holstein Kiel
€26.3m
€3.2m
17 of 32
8
6
12
74%
Kaiserslautern
€23.6m
€5.2m
18 of 27
6
6
7
75%
Karlsruher SC
€24.2m
€10.8m
15 of 27
10
1
8
60%
Darmstadt
€19.9m
€3.3m
18 of 23
8
4
8
67%
Hertha BSC
€19.9m
€3.2m
16 of 23
0
3
12
52%
1. FC Nürnberg
€24.9m
€8.4m
13 of 26
6
8
10
51%
Magdeburg
€15.9m
€5.7m
15 of 24
8
1
11
53%
Greuther Fürth
€15.2m
€3.6m
18 of 29
8
6
10
45%
Braunschweig
€15.4m
€2.2m
16 of 29
12
5
8
74%
Arminia Bielefeld
€17.7m
€1.9m
22 of 24
3
5
6
84%
Dynamo Dresden
€13.7m
€2.7m
18 of 27
11
7
10
62%
VfL Osnabrück
€5.4m
€960k
12 of 24
9
4
11
77%
Energie Cottbus
€5.7m
€975k
15 of 25
9
0
12
58%
Squad value is the weakest column on this page. Values exist
for 310 of the 482 players in these squads and the gaps are not spread evenly — a club whose
total looks low may simply be a club we know less about, which is what "values known" is there to
tell you. Transfers are counted from 1 May, and our club feed returns only each club's most recent
movements, so the in/out counts are a floor rather than a full window.
8 · What our projection expects
Club
Projected pts/g
Over 34 games
Band, points
Ground
Capacity
Head coach
Wolfsburg
1.55
53
45–60
Volkswagen Arena
30 000
Dieter Hecking
St. Pauli
1.51
51
44–59
Millerntor-Stadion
29 564
Alexander Blessin
Heidenheim
1.51
51
44–59
Voith-Arena
15 000
Frank Schmidt
Hannover
1.43
49
41–56
Heinz von Heiden-Arena
49 951
Christian Titz
Bochum
1.43
49
41–56
Vonovia Ruhrstadion
27 599
Uwe Rosler
Holstein Kiel
1.41
48
40–56
Holstein-Stadion
15 034
Tim Walter
Kaiserslautern
1.40
48
40–55
Fritz-Walter-Stadion
49 327
Torsten Lieberknecht
Karlsruher SC
1.39
47
40–55
BBBank Wildpark
34 302
not recorded
Darmstadt
1.39
47
40–55
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
17 810
Florian Kohfeldt
Hertha BSC
1.39
47
39–55
Olympiastadion Berlin
74 667
Stefan Leitl
1. FC Nürnberg
1.37
47
39–54
Max-Morlock-Stadion
50 000
Miroslav Klose
Magdeburg
1.36
46
38–54
Avnet Arena
30 000
Petrik Sander
Greuther Fürth
1.33
45
38–53
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
18 000
Heiko Vogel
Braunschweig
1.31
45
37–52
Eintracht-Stadion
24 474
Lars Kornetka
Arminia Bielefeld
1.20
41
33–48
SchücoArena
27 300
Oliver Kirch
Dynamo Dresden
1.20
41
33–48
Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion
32 066
Thomas Stamm
VfL Osnabrück
1.13
38
31–46
Bremer Brücke
16 667
Timo Schultz
Energie Cottbus
1.06
36
29–44
LEAG Energie Stadion
22 528
Claus-Dieter Wollitz
How wrong this is, measured. Holding out one season at a time
and predicting it from the others, the projection misses by 0.225 points a game
— 7.7 points over 34 games. Handing every club the league average instead misses
by 0.252; assuming last season repeats misses by 0.374. The band is
that measured error, not a confidence interval and not a prediction of final position.
Who leads what
Points per game — VfL Osnabrück 2.10, Energie Cottbus 1.90, Hannover 1.76 (last season)
Expected goals made — Energie Cottbus 1.92, Magdeburg 1.82, Darmstadt 1.79 (xG per game)
Expected goals allowed — fewest — VfL Osnabrück 1.14, Hannover 1.21, Dynamo Dresden 1.33 (xGA per game)
Possession — Hannover 56.6, Magdeburg 54.1, Energie Cottbus 52.4 (%)
Shots on target — Hannover 5.4, Magdeburg 5.3, Energie Cottbus 5.0 (per game)
Fouls — fewest — St. Pauli 9.6, Heidenheim 9.8, Dynamo Dresden 10.8 (per game)
Yellow cards — fewest — Heidenheim 1.50, St. Pauli 1.59, Darmstadt 1.85 (per game)
Players aged 23 or under — Holstein Kiel 17, 1. FC Nürnberg 16, Braunschweig 16 (in the squad)
Nationalities in the squad — Wolfsburg 14, St. Pauli 12, Darmstadt 11 (recorded)
All from last season, in whichever division the club played it.
What these numbers do not know
No transfers are priced in beyond counting them, no injuries, no coaching
changes, no budgets, no pre-season. Attendances are not in our source for this division, so the
capacity column is the ground rather than the crowd. Pass accuracy is not shown because the figure
our source returns for it is not a percentage and we will not print a number we cannot stand
behind. And this is not a betting product: where we can check this family of model against closing
odds it loses to the market.
Club by club, with full squads and every recorded arrival and departure:
2. Bundesliga 2026/27 squads and projection.
The complete 2025/26 season for this division — every table, every match, every
player who played, in Excel and PDF — is in the free season packs.