The Bundesliga 2026/27: a projection built from the players, club by club

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GoalSoon · built 05 September 2026 · every figure is our own calculation

18 clubs, 522 players currently registered with them, and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and published: ±9 points.

How to read the number

On this page: how it works · how wrong it is · the 18 clubs · where it disagrees with last season · where the minutes were played · club by club

The idea

A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every player registered with the 18 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.

The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on 8,628 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale. The zero has to sit somewhere and we put it on League One, so every number below reads as “this much above or below a League One season”:

DivisionLevel, in rating zMoves seen
the Premier League+1.461015
La Liga+1.181247
the Bundesliga+1.07918
Serie A+1.031524
Ligue 1+0.831139
the Championship+0.611189
the Belgian Pro League+0.44628
the Eredivisie+0.36731
the Segunda+0.351288
the Primeira Liga+0.35652
the 2. Bundesliga+0.26590
Serie B+0.231120
the Scottish Premiership+0.02408
Ligue 2+0.00662
League One+0.001560
the 3. Liga-0.18270
the HNL-0.21279
League Two-0.271267
the Challenger Pro League-0.27228
the Eerste Divisie-0.36515

The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in (+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not charged to the divisions.

What goes into a club’s number

Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:

InputWeightWhat it is
squad quality+0.446Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale.
the club’s own last season+0.165What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one.
attacking end+0.158The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in.
ball-winning+0.090Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale.
minutes from the Championship or above-0.010How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division rated above League One — the Championship, the Premier League or a foreign division at that level. The threshold is fixed at League One for every page, so the input means the same thing wherever it is used. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly.

Fitted on 104 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.

How wrong it is

Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is scored on data it was fitted on:

ApproachError, pts/gameOver 34 games
Give every club the division average0.374 ±12.7
Repeat last season, adjusted for level0.308 ±10.5
This model, from the players0.251 ±8.5

So it is worth about 4 points of accuracy over knowing nothing, and about 2 points over assuming last season repeats. That is a real edge and a small one — on 104 club-seasons it holds against the division average at p < 0.001. One thing that number does not say on its own: this method was carried over from three English divisions and tested on thirteen more before any of them got a page. Seven failed and have none — almost all of them second tiers, where a squad explains far less of a season. This division is one that passed, so read the figure as a division that survived a selection, not as a single test. The whole projected range across the division is 43 points and the error on any one club is ±9, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered, and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 18 clubs 1 to 18 in August is not measuring their own error.

The same model run on goals rather than points gives 0.275 of a goal per game of error on goals scored against 0.407 for the division average, and 0.209 against 0.250 on goals conceded. So the attacking half reads off a squad list and the defensive half barely does — a defence is harder to see in a list of players than an attack.

The 18 clubs

ClubProjected ptsBandScored/gameConceded/game SquadNo dataAgeMins from aboveMins from below Last season ptsWhere
Bayern Munich7566–832.561.12351427.80%0%89the Bundesliga
Dortmund6455–732.251.3027926.30%0%73the Bundesliga
RB Leipzig6253–702.131.3428625.27%0%65the Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen5950–672.031.4032925.90%8%59the Bundesliga
Stuttgart5446–631.791.4035424.60%31%62the Bundesliga
Hoffenheim4940–581.661.5130825.30%27%61the Bundesliga
Augsburg4739–561.621.5927826.30%0%43the Bundesliga
Eintracht Frankfurt4536–531.471.61281025.20%17%44the Bundesliga
Freiburg4536–531.481.6328426.50%15%47the Bundesliga
FC Koln4436–531.421.6521526.40%19%32the Bundesliga
Mainz4435–521.461.6530527.70%16%40the Bundesliga
Werder Bremen4335–521.481.6628825.60%22%32the Bundesliga
B. Monchengladbach4233–501.431.6729726.50%27%38the Bundesliga
Hamburger SV4031–481.361.6828726.40%27%38the Bundesliga
Schalke3628–451.261.72311027.10%93%70the 2. Bundesliga
Union Berlin3628–451.101.75301125.50%17%39the Bundesliga
Elversberg3224–411.101.7826625.80%100%62the 2. Bundesliga
Paderborn3223–401.071.7629724.60%100%62the 2. Bundesliga

▲ upper group   ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection ± half the measured error, not by predicted position. Age is the squad’s average age weighted by the minutes each man played last season, so it describes the side that actually plays rather than the registration list. Mins from above and from below are the shares of last season’s measured minutes played in a division rated higher or lower than this one; the rest were played at this level or in a division we cannot place.

Where it disagrees with last season

The plainest rival to this model is “whatever the club did last season, corrected for the division it did it in” — the second row of the error table above. Here is that number next to ours, club by club. Where the two agree, the squad has not really changed. Where they part, the summer did something the table cannot see:

ClubLast seasonRepeat it, level-adjustedThis model Difference
Schalke70 pts, the 2. Bundesliga, 1st5836-21
Paderborn62 pts, the 2. Bundesliga, 3rd5032-18
Elversberg62 pts, the 2. Bundesliga, 2nd5032-17
Bayern Munich89 pts, the Bundesliga, 1st8975-14
FC Koln32 pts, the Bundesliga, 14th3244+12
Hoffenheim61 pts, the Bundesliga, 5th6149-12
Werder Bremen32 pts, the Bundesliga, 15th3243+11
Dortmund73 pts, the Bundesliga, 2nd7364-9
Stuttgart62 pts, the Bundesliga, 4th6254-8
Augsburg43 pts, the Bundesliga, 9th4347+4
B. Monchengladbach38 pts, the Bundesliga, 12th3842+4
Mainz40 pts, the Bundesliga, 10th4044+4
RB Leipzig65 pts, the Bundesliga, 3rd6562-3
Union Berlin39 pts, the Bundesliga, 11th3936-3
Freiburg47 pts, the Bundesliga, 7th4745-2
Hamburger SV38 pts, the Bundesliga, 13th3840+2
Eintracht Frankfurt44 pts, the Bundesliga, 8th4445+1
Bayer Leverkusen59 pts, the Bundesliga, 6th5959-0

Sorted by the size of the disagreement. The level adjustment is why a club promoted from League One does not simply keep its 25/26 points total: a point won a division lower is worth less here, and the size of that discount is the measured one from the transfers table above, not a guess.

Where the minutes were played

Every club number on this page is built out of last season’s minutes, so it is worth seeing where those minutes come from. Across the division, the 522 registered players carry 6,950 full games of measured playing time from 2025/26, split like this:

Division those minutes were played inMinutesShare Level, in rating z
the Bundesliga435,16269.6%+1.07
the 2. Bundesliga133,48321.3%+0.26
the 3. Liga18,6353.0%-0.18
the Belgian Pro League11,9841.9%+0.44
Ligue 15,0400.8%+0.83
the Eerste Divisie4,3570.7%-0.36
the Segunda3,1600.5%+0.35
the Eredivisie2,9540.5%+0.36
Ligue 22,9050.5%+0.00
the Premier League2,6670.4%+1.46
the Championship2,0210.3%+0.61
Serie A1,8930.3%+1.03
the Scottish Premiership1,2800.2%+0.02

Only divisions we hold match-level player data for appear here; minutes played outside them are in the “no measured season” count instead, which is 138 of the 522 registered players. Per-club splits are on each club card below.

Club by club

Bayern Munichprojected 75 pts · band 66–83 · 2.56 scored and 1.12 conceded per game · Vincent Kompany
squad age (by minutes) 27.8minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 99%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 100%.

We project 75 points (66–83), against a division average of 47. Last season: 89 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: squad quality (+16), the club’s own last season (+7), attacking end (+6) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 14 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €1012.3m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+16.2
the club’s own last season+6.6
attacking end+6.0
ball-winning-1.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Ismael Saibari PSV · 2026-07-01
  • Alexander Nubel Stuttgart · 2026-06-30
  • Daniel Peretz Southampton · 2026-06-30
  • Arijon Ibrahimovic Heidenheim · 2026-06-30
  • Maurice Krattenmacher Hertha Berlin · 2026-06-30
  • Bryan Zaragoza AS Roma · 2026-06-30
  • Noel Aseko-Nkili Hannover · 2026-06-30
  • Armindo Sieb Mainz · 2026-06-30
  • Sacha Boey Galatasaray · 2026-06-30
  • Grayson Dettoni Darmstadt · 2026-06-30
  • Paul Scholl Karlsruher SC · 2026-06-30
  • Deniz Ofli Karlsruher SC · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Daniel Peretz Southampton · 2026-07-01
  • Maurice Krattenmacher Elversberg · 2026-07-01
  • Grayson Dettoni Darmstadt · 2026-07-01
  • Paul Scholl Karlsruher SC · 2026-07-01
  • Deniz Ofli Karlsruher SC · 2026-07-04
  • Alexander Nubel Besiktas · 2026-07-08
  • Nicolas Jackson Chelsea · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Harry KaneFBayern Munichthe Bundesliga238232365100
Michael OliseMBayern Munichthe Bundesliga2317331519100
Joshua KimmichMBayern Munichthe Bundesliga2280302899
Luis DiazMBayern Munichthe Bundesliga245032151498
Jonathan TahDBayern Munichthe Bundesliga2024332195
Leon GoretzkaMBayern Munichthe Bundesliga1954345392
Dortmundprojected 64 pts · band 55–73 · 2.25 scored and 1.30 conceded per game · Niko Kovac
squad age (by minutes) 26.3minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 91%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 100%.

We project 64 points (55–73), against a division average of 47. Last season: 73 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+11), the club’s own last season (+4), attacking end (+2) points. Of the 22 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 9 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €427.7m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+10.6
the club’s own last season+3.8
attacking end+1.5
ball-winning+1.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Justin Lerma Ind. del Valle · 2026-06-30
  • Joane Gadou Salzburg · 2026-06-30
  • Julien Duranville Basel · 2026-06-29
  • Kjell Watjen Bochum · 2026-06-29
  • Cole Campbell Hoffenheim · 2026-06-29
  • Diant Ramaj Heidenheim · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Anastasios Kitos Paderborn · 2026-06-29
  • Thierry Fidjeu-Tazemeta Kaiserslautern · 2026-06-29
  • Julien Duranville Lyon · 2026-06-29
  • Tony Reitz Magdeburg · 2026-06-29
  • Babis Drakas Bochum · 2026-06-29
  • Salih Ozcan Besiktas · 2026-06-29
  • Julian Brandt no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Niklas Sule no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Taycan Etcibasi Hannover · 2026-07-01
  • Cole Campbell Elversberg · 2026-07-07
  • Kjell Watjen Midtjylland · 2026-07-11
  • Karim Adeyemi Barcelona · 2026-07-23

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Nico SchlotterbeckDDortmundthe Bundesliga25202851100
Waldemar AntonDDortmundthe Bundesliga2880322094
Julian RyersonDDortmundthe Bundesliga22723301588
Ramy BensebainiDDortmundthe Bundesliga1529255299
Serhou GuirassyFDortmundthe Bundesliga23483417180
Felix NmechaMDortmundthe Bundesliga2184292382
RB Leipzigprojected 62 pts · band 53–70 · 2.13 scored and 1.34 conceded per game · Martin Demichelis
squad age (by minutes) 25.2minutes from above 7%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 93%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 93%, the Premier League 7%.

We project 62 points (53–70), against a division average of 47. Last season: 65 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+9), attacking end (+2), the club’s own last season (+2) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 6 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €521.7m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+9.0
attacking end+2.5
the club’s own last season+2.4
ball-winning+1.0
minutes from the Championship or above-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Ota Yamamoto Kashiwa Reysol · 2026-06-30
  • Rocco Reitz B. Monchengladbach · 2026-06-30
  • Maxime Esteve Burnley · 2026-07-16
  • Benno Kaltefleiter New York Red Bulls · 2026-06-29
  • Abdoul Kone Reims · 2026-06-29
  • Joyeux Masanka Bungi New York Red Bulls · 2026-06-29
  • Robert Ramsak Sandhausen · 2026-06-29
  • Timo Schlieck Greuther Furth · 2026-06-29
  • Arthur Vermeeren Marseille · 2026-06-29
  • Frederik Jakel Braunschweig · 2026-06-29
  • Lutsharel Geertruida Sunderland · 2026-06-29
  • Lois Openda Juventus · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Faik Sakar Augsburg · 2026-06-29
  • Jamie Schuldes Utrecht · 2026-06-29
  • Frederik Jakel Braunschweig · 2026-06-29
  • Lois Openda Juventus · 2026-06-29
  • Xaver Schlager no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Ota Yamamoto Omiya Ardija · 2026-07-01
  • Timo Schlieck Verl · 2026-07-02
  • Kosta Nedeljkovic Aston Villa · 2026-06-29
  • Brajan Gruda Brighton · 2027-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Yan DiomandeFRB Leipzigthe Bundesliga24763312899
Willi OrbanDRB Leipzigthe Bundesliga2950332096
David RaumDRB Leipzigthe Bundesliga2556313798
Antonio NusaFRB Leipzigthe Bundesliga2035314397
Christoph BaumgartnerMRB Leipzigthe Bundesliga27893313879
Castello LukebaDRB Leipzigthe Bundesliga2177281088
Bayer Leverkusenprojected 59 pts · band 50–67 · 2.03 scored and 1.40 conceded per game · Kasper Hjulmand
squad age (by minutes) 25.9minutes from above 0%from below 8%last season’s minutes retained 92%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 92%, Ligue 1 5%, the 2. Bundesliga 3%.

We project 59 points (50–67), against a division average of 47. Last season: 59 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 6th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+8), attacking end (+2), the club’s own last season (+1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 9 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €447.8m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+8.3
attacking end+1.7
the club’s own last season+1.4
ball-winning+0.4
minutes from the Championship or above-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Ndjicoura Bomba Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-06-30
  • Kennet Eichhorn Hertha Berlin · 2026-06-30
  • Aleksa Damjanovic Crvena zvezda · 2026-06-30
  • Kerim Alajbegovic Salzburg · 2026-06-30
  • Afonso Moreira Lyon · 2026-06-30
  • Abdoulaye Faye Lorient · 2026-06-29
  • Andrea Natali AZ Alkmaar · 2026-06-29
  • Artem Stepanov Utrecht · 2026-06-29
  • Francis Onyeka Bochum · 2026-06-29
  • Ken Izekor Braunschweig · 2026-06-29
  • Alejo Sarco B. Monchengladbach · 2026-06-29
  • Farid Alfa-Ruprecht Bochum · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Chigozle Owen Emmanuel Utrecht · 2026-06-29
  • Ferdinand Pohl Utrecht · 2026-06-29
  • Piero Hincapie Arsenal · 2026-06-29
  • Matej Kovar PSV · 2026-06-29
  • Alejandro Grimaldo Atl. Madrid · 2026-06-29
  • Francis Onyeka Elversberg · 2026-06-30
  • Issa Traore Trencin · 2026-07-05
  • Ken Izekor Alemannia Aachen · 2026-07-07
  • Jonas Omlin B. Monchengladbach · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Aleix GarciaMBayer Leverkusenthe Bundesliga2676333899
Edmond TapsobaDBayer Leverkusenthe Bundesliga2576295390
Ibrahim MazaMBayer Leverkusenthe Bundesliga1859303492
Patrik SchickFBayer Leverkusenthe Bundesliga19952816389
Loic BadeDBayer Leverkusenthe Bundesliga1659270093
Robert AndrichMBayer Leverkusenthe Bundesliga2547332069
Stuttgartprojected 54 pts · band 46–63 · 1.79 scored and 1.40 conceded per game · Sebastian Hoeness
squad age (by minutes) 24.6minutes from above 0%from below 31%last season’s minutes retained 90%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 69%, the 3. Liga 14%, the 2. Bundesliga 13%.

We project 54 points (46–63), against a division average of 47. Last season: 62 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 4th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+3), squad quality (+2), the club’s own last season (+2) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 4 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 31. Squad value on our player feed: €361.2m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end+2.9
squad quality+2.5
the club’s own last season+1.9
minutes from the Championship or above+0.4
ball-winning-0.4

In since 1 May

  • Tim van der Leij Waalwijk · 2026-06-30
  • Bilal El Khannouss Leicester · 2026-06-30
  • Grischa Promel Hoffenheim · 2026-06-30
  • Marius Funk Cottbus · 2026-06-30
  • Jarzinho Malanga Elversberg · 2026-06-29
  • Dennis Seimen Paderborn · 2026-06-29
  • Eliot Bujupi Westerlo · 2026-06-29
  • Jovan Milosevic Werder Bremen · 2026-06-29
  • Laurin Ulrich Magdeburg · 2026-06-29
  • Leonidas Stergiou Heidenheim · 2026-06-29
  • Noah Darvich Elversberg · 2027-06-30
  • Florian Hellstern Greuther Furth · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Deli Hajdini Grossaspach · 2026-06-29
  • Ivan Knezevic Kaiserslautern · 2026-06-29
  • Kenny Fressle Walldorf · 2026-06-29
  • Tino Kaufmann Walldorf · 2026-06-29
  • Samuele Di Benedetto Braunschweig · 2026-06-29
  • Abdenego Nankishi Saarbrucken · 2026-06-29
  • Pascal Stenzel no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Florian Hellstern Greuther Furth · 2026-06-30
  • Noah Darvich Elversberg · 2026-06-30
  • Nuha Jatta Torreense · 2026-07-01
  • Alexandre Azevedo Ulm · 2026-07-02
  • Mohamed Sankoh Randers FC · 2026-07-04

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Angelo StillerMStuttgartthe Bundesliga2750342597
Deniz UndavFStuttgartthe Bundesliga22472919798
Jamie LewelingFStuttgartthe Bundesliga2375327993
Maximilian MittelstadtDStuttgartthe Bundesliga2195336492
Jeff ChabotDStuttgartthe Bundesliga2296320089
Chris FuhrichMStuttgartthe Bundesliga1723347793
Hoffenheimprojected 49 pts · band 40–58 · 1.66 scored and 1.51 conceded per game · Christian Ilzer
squad age (by minutes) 25.3minutes from above 0%from below 27%last season’s minutes retained 86%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 73%, the Eredivisie 7%, the Belgian Pro League 6%, the 2. Bundesliga 5%.

We project 49 points (40–58), against a division average of 47. Last season: 61 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 5th. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+2) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 8 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €270.3m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season+1.7
ball-winning-0.2
minutes from the Championship or above+0.1
squad quality+0.1
attacking end-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Alexandros Skender Omonia · 2026-06-30
  • Cajetan Lenz Bochum · 2026-06-30
  • Sean Dulic Munich 1860 · 2026-06-30
  • Konstantin Aleksa Austria Vienna · 2026-06-30
  • Alessandro Vogt St. Gallen · 2026-06-30
  • Mats Rots Twente · 2026-06-30
  • Patrick Wimmer Wolfsburg · 2026-06-30
  • Nathan De Cat Anderlecht · 2026-07-09
  • Precious Benjamin Altach · 2026-06-29
  • Hennes Behrens Heidenheim · 2026-06-29
  • Gift Orban Verona · 2026-06-29
  • Bambase Conte Elversberg · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Yannick Onohiol Kaiserslautern · 2026-06-29
  • Zidan Tairi Aarau · 2026-06-29
  • Yannik Luhrs Darmstadt · 2026-06-29
  • Stanley Nsoki Union Berlin · 2026-06-29
  • Grischa Promel Stuttgart · 2026-06-29
  • Ihlas Bebou no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Kevin Akpoguma no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Precious Benjamin A. Lustenau · 2026-06-30
  • Nahuel Noll Paderborn · 2026-06-30
  • Paul Hennrich Heidenheim · 2026-07-01
  • Bazoumana Toure Newcastle · 2026-07-03
  • Kelven Frees Kaiserslautern · 2026-07-06

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Vladimir CoufalDHoffenheimthe Bundesliga3017341889
Leon AvdullahuMHoffenheimthe Bundesliga2838330189
Andrej KramaricFHoffenheimthe Bundesliga22223414695
Wouter BurgerMHoffenheimthe Bundesliga2440304589
Albian HajdariDHoffenheimthe Bundesliga2440311285
BernardoDHoffenheimthe Bundesliga2318300069
Augsburgprojected 47 pts · band 39–56 · 1.62 scored and 1.59 conceded per game · Manuel Baum
squad age (by minutes) 26.3minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 96%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 100%.

We project 47 points (39–56), against a division average of 47. Last season: 43 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 9th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-1), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 8 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €147.2m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
ball-winning+2.1
the club’s own last season-1.4
attacking end-0.7
squad quality+0.4
minutes from the Championship or above-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Michael Gregoritsch Brondby · 2026-07-01
  • Rodrigo Ribeiro Sporting CP · 2026-07-01
  • Steve Mounie Alanyaspor · 2026-06-30
  • David Colina Osijek · 2026-06-30
  • Maximilian Bauer Arminia Bielefeld · 2026-06-30
  • Tim Breithaupt Dusseldorf · 2026-06-30
  • Nathanael Mbuku Montpellier · 2026-06-30
  • Henri Koudossou Nurnberg · 2026-06-30
  • Elias Saad Hannover · 2026-06-30
  • Kyliane Dong Bolton · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Elvis Rexhbecaj Wolfsburg · 2026-07-01
  • Maximilian Bauer Arminia Bielefeld · 2026-07-01
  • Henri Koudossou Arminia Bielefeld · 2026-07-01
  • Cedric Zesiger Young Boys · 2026-07-03
  • David Colina Zaglebie · 2026-07-03
  • Kyliane Dong Bolton · 2026-07-07
  • Michael Gregoritsch Brondby · 2026-06-30
  • Chaves Arthur Hoffenheim · 2026-06-30
  • Ismael Gharbi Braga · 2026-06-30
  • Rodrigo Ribeiro Sporting CP · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Robin FellhauerFAugsburgthe Bundesliga2810343276
Alexis Claude-MauriceFAugsburgthe Bundesliga2107305484
Keven SchlotterbeckDAugsburgthe Bundesliga2031310183
Fabian RiederMAugsburgthe Bundesliga2359326373
Han-Noah MassengoMAugsburgthe Bundesliga2435332168
Dimitrios GiannoulisDAugsburgthe Bundesliga1901272578
Eintracht Frankfurtprojected 45 pts · band 36–53 · 1.47 scored and 1.61 conceded per game · Adi Hutter
squad age (by minutes) 25.2minutes from above 0%from below 17%last season’s minutes retained 75%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 83%, the 2. Bundesliga 14%, the 3. Liga 3%.

We project 45 points (36–53), against a division average of 47. Last season: 44 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-2), the club’s own last season (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 10 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €324.4m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-1.7
the club’s own last season-1.2
attacking end+0.9
ball-winning-0.3
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Malik Pimpong Midtjylland · 2026-06-30
  • Noel Futkeu Greuther Furth · 2026-06-30
  • Kaan Inanoglu FC 08 Homburg · 2026-06-29
  • Noah Fenyo Ujpest · 2026-06-29
  • Simon Simoni Kaiserslautern · 2026-06-29
  • Elye Wahi Nice · 2026-06-29
  • Hrvoje Smolcic Kocaelispor · 2026-06-29
  • Niels Nkounkou Torino · 2026-06-29
  • Jessic Ngankam Wolfsberger AC · 2026-06-29
  • Junior Dina Ebimbe Brest · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Kaan Inanoglu SG Dynamo Dresden · 2026-06-29
  • Noah Fenyo Ujpest · 2026-06-29
  • Hrvoje Smolcic Corum · 2026-06-29
  • Rasmus Kristensen Midtjylland · 2026-06-29
  • Mahmoud Dahoud no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Alexander Staff Saarbrucken · 2026-06-30
  • Fousseny Doumbia Cottbus · 2026-06-30
  • Nathaniel Brown Bayern Munich · 2026-07-01
  • Aurele Amenda Coventry · 2026-07-14
  • Simon Simoni Luzern · 2026-07-21
  • Arnaud Kalimuendo Nottingham · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Robin KochDEintracht Frankfurtthe Bundesliga2835323182
Noel FutkeuFGreuther Furththe 2. Bundesliga27183419586
Ritsu DoanMEintracht Frankfurtthe Bundesliga2379325562
Jonathan BurkardtFEintracht Frankfurtthe Bundesliga13402213190
Can UzunMEintracht Frankfurtthe Bundesliga1172238494
Jean-Matteo BahoyaFEintracht Frankfurtthe Bundesliga1335293487
Freiburgprojected 45 pts · band 36–53 · 1.48 scored and 1.63 conceded per game · Julian Schuster
squad age (by minutes) 26.5minutes from above 0%from below 15%last season’s minutes retained 91%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 85%, the Belgian Pro League 15%.

We project 45 points (36–53), against a division average of 47. Last season: 47 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 7th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-2), the club’s own last season (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 4 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €229.7m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-1.8
the club’s own last season-0.7
attacking end+0.2
minutes from the Championship or above-0.1
ball-winning-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Keisuke Goto Anderlecht · 2026-06-30
  • Mio Backhaus Werder Bremen · 2026-06-30
  • Rihito Yamamoto St. Truiden · 2026-06-30
  • Yannik Engelhardt Como · 2026-07-17
  • Drew Murray Oberhausen · 2026-06-24
  • Yann Sturm Ingolstadt · 2026-06-29
  • Berkay Yilmaz Nurnberg · 2026-06-29
  • Robert Wagner SG Dynamo Dresden · 2026-06-29
  • Alessio Besio Verl · 2026-06-29
  • Merlin Rohl Everton · 2026-06-29
  • Eren Dinkci Heidenheim · 2026-06-29
  • Noah Weisshaupt Hannover · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Drew Murray Tirol · 2026-06-24
  • David Amegnaglo Westerlo · 2026-06-29
  • Yann Sturm Braunschweig · 2026-06-29
  • Robert Wagner SG Dynamo Dresden · 2026-06-29
  • Alessio Besio Wolfsburg · 2026-06-29
  • Merlin Rohl Everton · 2026-06-29
  • Noah Weisshaupt Darmstadt · 2026-06-29
  • Junior Adamu Schalke · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel-Kofi Kyereh no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Maximilian Philipp no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Johan Manzambi Aston Villa · 2026-07-15

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Rihito YamamotoFSt. Truidenthe Belgian Pro League3289385697
Matthias GinterDFreiburgthe Bundesliga2836323484
Maximilian EggesteinMFreiburgthe Bundesliga3060343167
Keisuke GotoFSt. Truidenthe Belgian Pro League28853811780
Vincenzo GrifoMFreiburgthe Bundesliga1720347486
Igor MatanovicFFreiburgthe Bundesliga15703211274
FC Kolnprojected 44 pts · band 36–53 · 1.42 scored and 1.65 conceded per game · Lukas Kwasniok
squad age (by minutes) 26.4minutes from above 0%from below 19%last season’s minutes retained 65%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 81%, the 2. Bundesliga 11%, Ligue 1 9%.

We project 44 points (36–53), against a division average of 47. Last season: 32 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 14th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+1), ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-3), squad quality (-2) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 15 are still on the list. 5 of the 21 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €128.4m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-3.3
squad quality-1.8
attacking end+1.2
ball-winning+0.9
minutes from the Championship or above-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Manchester City · 2026-06-30
  • Jakub Kaminski Wolfsburg · 2026-06-30
  • Tom Krauss Mainz · 2026-06-30
  • Luka Lochoshvili Nurnberg · 2026-07-01
  • Gideon Mensah Auxerre · 2026-07-10
  • Reigan Heskey Manchester City · 2026-07-17
  • Julian Pauli SG Dynamo Dresden · 2026-06-29
  • Elias Bakatukanda BW Linz · 2026-06-29
  • Emin Kujovic Wolfsberger AC · 2026-06-29
  • Jaka Cuber Potocnik RW Essen · 2026-06-29
  • Rasmus Carstensen Aarhus · 2026-06-29
  • Imad Rondic Preussen Munster · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Thierry Karadeniz Trabzonspor · 2026-06-29
  • Jason Ponente-Ramirez Karlsruher SC · 2026-06-29
  • Denis Huseinbasic Braga · 2026-06-29
  • Eric Martel Mainz · 2026-06-29
  • Luca Kilian no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Dominique Heintz Dusseldorf · 2026-06-29
  • Rasmus Carstensen Aarhus · 2026-07-06
  • Jusuf Gazibegovic Widzew Lodz · 2026-07-26
  • Jakub Kaminski Wolfsburg · 2026-06-29
  • Max Lippert Arminia Bielefeld · 2026-06-29
  • Felipe Chavez Bayern Munich · 2026-06-29
  • Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Manchester City · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Luka LochoshviliDNurnbergthe 2. Bundesliga2860325094
Said El MalaFFC Kolnthe Bundesliga19573413490
Marvin SchwabeGFC Kolnthe Bundesliga3060340052
Tom KraussMFC Kolnthe Bundesliga1801320276
Marius BulterFFC Kolnthe Bundesliga1606325482
Ragnar AcheFFC Kolnthe Bundesliga1724297477
Mainzprojected 44 pts · band 35–52 · 1.46 scored and 1.65 conceded per game · Urs Fischer
squad age (by minutes) 27.7minutes from above 0%from below 16%last season’s minutes retained 85%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 84%, the 2. Bundesliga 16%.

We project 44 points (35–52), against a division average of 47. Last season: 40 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 10th. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-2), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 5 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €154.0m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-1.9
squad quality-1.1
attacking end-0.4
minutes from the Championship or above-0.1
ball-winning+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Sota Kawasaki Kyoto · 2026-06-30
  • Fabio Gruber Nurnberg · 2026-06-30
  • Eric Martel FC Koln · 2026-06-30
  • Ransford Konigsdorffer Hamburger SV · 2026-06-30
  • Sheraldo Becker Osasuna · 2026-06-30
  • Konstantin Schopp Hartberg · 2026-06-29
  • Ben Bobzien SG Dynamo Dresden · 2026-06-29
  • Otto Ruoppi KuPS · 2026-06-29
  • Hyun-Seok Hong Gent · 2026-06-29
  • Tom Krauss FC Koln · 2026-06-29
  • Arnaud Nordin Rennes · 2026-06-29
  • Marco Richter Darmstadt · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Nikolas Veratschnig Salzburg · 2026-06-29
  • Niklas Tauer no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Tom Krauss FC Koln · 2026-06-29
  • Arnaud Nordin Rennes · 2026-06-29
  • Maxim Leitsch no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Batz B. Monchengladbach · 2026-06-29
  • Kasey Bos Excelsior · 2026-06-30
  • Daniel Gleiber Saarbrucken · 2026-06-30
  • Lasse Riess Dusseldorf · 2026-07-05
  • Maxim Dal Greuther Furth · 2026-07-11
  • Nelson Weiper Sturm Graz · 2026-07-17
  • Sota Kawasaki Kyoto · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Kaishu SanoMMainzthe Bundesliga3059341288
Nadiem AmiriMMainzthe Bundesliga20902612298
Fabio GruberDNurnbergthe 2. Bundesliga2707311190
Danny da CostaDMainzthe Bundesliga2697342363
Eric MartelMFC Kolnthe Bundesliga2564312266
Dominik KohrDMainzthe Bundesliga2345292062
Werder Bremenprojected 43 pts · band 35–52 · 1.48 scored and 1.66 conceded per game · Daniel Thioune
squad age (by minutes) 25.6minutes from above 0%from below 22%last season’s minutes retained 73%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 78%, the 2. Bundesliga 11%, the Segunda 7%.

We project 43 points (35–52), against a division average of 47. Last season: 32 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 15th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-3), attacking end (-1), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 8 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €152.4m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-3.3
ball-winning+1.6
attacking end-1.5
squad quality-0.8
minutes from the Championship or above-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Kenny Quetant Le Havre · 2026-06-30
  • Darwin Soylu Wolfsburg · 2026-06-30
  • Dariusz Stalmach Magdeburg · 2026-06-30
  • Chuki Valladolid · 2026-06-30
  • Karl Hein Arsenal · 2026-06-30
  • Cedric Itten Dusseldorf · 2026-06-30
  • Oskar Wojcik Cracovia · 2026-07-08
  • Alexander Schlager Salzburg · 2026-07-09
  • Leon Opitz Karlsruher SC · 2026-06-29
  • Skelly Alvero Amiens · 2026-06-29
  • Dawid Kownacki Hertha Berlin · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Kevin Manthey Magdeburg · 2026-06-29
  • Mio Backhaus Freiburg · 2026-06-29
  • Leonardo Bittencourt Cottbus · 2026-06-29
  • Wesley Adeh Preussen Munster · 2026-06-30
  • Leon Opitz VfL Osnabruck · 2026-06-30
  • Jovan Milosevic Stuttgart · 2026-06-29
  • Isaac Schmidt Leeds · 2026-06-29
  • Victor Boniface Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-06-29
  • Cameron Puertas Al Qadsiah · 2026-06-29
  • Karl Hein Arsenal · 2026-06-29
  • Yukinari Sugawara Southampton · 2026-06-29
  • Maximilian Wober Leeds · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Romano SchmidMWerder Brementhe Bundesliga2988344884
Jens StageMWerder Brementhe Bundesliga24682910288
Marco FriedlDWerder Brementhe Bundesliga2549301068
Senne LynenMWerder Brementhe Bundesliga2757310060
Cedric IttenFDusseldorfthe 2. Bundesliga26253015387
ChukiMValladolidthe Segunda2270347789
B. Monchengladbachprojected 42 pts · band 33–50 · 1.43 scored and 1.67 conceded per game · Eugen Polanski
squad age (by minutes) 26.5minutes from above 0%from below 27%last season’s minutes retained 74%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 73%, the 2. Bundesliga 24%.

We project 42 points (33–50), against a division average of 47. Last season: 38 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 12th. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-2), attacking end (-1), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 7 of the 29 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €103.0m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-2.3
attacking end-1.4
squad quality-1.3
ball-winning-0.4
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Jan Leszczynski Legia · 2026-06-30
  • Zento Uno Shimizu S-Pulse · 2026-06-30
  • Hugo Bolin Malmo FF · 2026-06-30
  • David Herold Karlsruher SC · 2026-06-30
  • Yukhym Konoplya Shakhtar Donetsk · 2026-06-30
  • Enzo Leopold Hannover · 2026-06-30
  • Isac Lidberg Darmstadt · 2026-06-30
  • Daniel Batz Mainz · 2026-06-30
  • Shio Fukuda Karlsruher SC · 2026-06-29
  • Winsley Boteli Sion · 2026-06-29
  • Ibrahim Digberekou Sporting Lokeren · 2026-06-29
  • Noah Pesch Magdeburg · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Yannick Michaelis Hansa Rostock · 2026-06-29
  • Shio Fukuda Karlsruher SC · 2026-06-29
  • Winsley Boteli Sion · 2026-06-29
  • Rocco Reitz RB Leipzig · 2026-06-29
  • Jonas Omlin Basel · 2026-06-29
  • Marvin Friedrich Union Berlin · 2026-06-29
  • Jan Urbich Braunschweig · 2026-06-30
  • Niklas Swider Viktoria Koln · 2026-06-30
  • Tiago Pereira Cardoso RAAL La Louviere · 2026-06-30
  • Noah Pesch RW Essen · 2026-07-01
  • Giovanni Reyna Strasbourg · 2026-08-04
  • Nathan Ngoumou Nice · 2026-08-17

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Enzo LeopoldMHannoverthe 2. Bundesliga2940332499
Nico ElvediDB. Monchengladbachthe Bundesliga2967330286
Moritz NicolasGB. Monchengladbachthe Bundesliga3060340079
Philipp SanderMB. Monchengladbachthe Bundesliga2454312087
Kevin DiksDB. Monchengladbachthe Bundesliga2467305080
Daniel BatzGMainzthe Bundesliga1890250083
Hamburger SVprojected 40 pts · band 31–48 · 1.36 scored and 1.68 conceded per game · Merlin Polzin
squad age (by minutes) 26.4minutes from above 0%from below 27%last season’s minutes retained 66%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 73%, the 2. Bundesliga 10%, Ligue 2 8%, the Championship 7%.

We project 40 points (31–48), against a division average of 47. Last season: 38 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 13th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), attacking end (-3), the club’s own last season (-2) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 7 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €166.5m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-4.4
attacking end-2.8
the club’s own last season-2.3
ball-winning+1.9
minutes from the Championship or above+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Andrej Vasiljevic MTK Budapest · 2026-06-30
  • Kofi Amoako SG Dynamo Dresden · 2026-06-30
  • Albert Gronbaek Rennes · 2026-06-30
  • Martin Adeline Troyes · 2026-07-12
  • Patson Daka Leicester · 2026-07-21
  • Bilal Nadir Marseille · 2026-07-23
  • Aboubaka Soumahoro St Etienne · 2026-06-29
  • Rohin Shivani Lubeck · 2026-06-29
  • Joel Agyekum Viktoria Koln · 2026-06-29
  • Lukasz Poreba Elversberg · 2026-06-29
  • Immanuel Pherai Elversberg · 2026-06-29
  • Emir Sahiti Maccabi Tel Aviv · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Moritz Reimers Holstein Kiel · 2026-06-29
  • Maurice Boakye Maritimo · 2026-06-29
  • Lukas Bornschein VfL Osnabruck · 2026-06-29
  • William Mikelbrencis no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Leonardo Posadas TSV Havelse · 2026-06-29
  • Ransford Konigsdorffer Mainz · 2026-06-29
  • Rohin Shivani Lotte · 2026-06-30
  • Hannes Hermann Regensburg · 2026-06-30
  • Noah Katterbach Braunschweig · 2026-06-30
  • Robert Glatzel Wolfsburg · 2026-07-01
  • Lukasz Poreba Elversberg · 2026-07-01
  • Aboubaka Soumahoro Mallorca · 2026-07-09

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Nicolai RembergMHamburger SVthe Bundesliga2880320283
Miro MuheimDHamburger SVthe Bundesliga2437290478
Daniel Heuer FernandesGHamburger SVthe Bundesliga2970340059
Sambi Lokonga AlbertMHamburger SVthe Bundesliga1712275084
Martin AdelineFTroyesLigue 2243733101090
Jean-Luc DompeFHamburger SVthe Bundesliga1136233094
Schalkeprojected 36 pts · band 28–45 · 1.26 scored and 1.72 conceded per game · Miron Muslic
squad age (by minutes) 27.1minutes from above 0%from below 93%last season’s minutes retained 89%

Last season those minutes were played in: the 2. Bundesliga 89%, Serie A 6%, the Scottish Premiership 4%.

We project 36 points (28–45), against a division average of 47. Last season: 70 points in the 2. Bundesliga, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-7), attacking end (-4), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 10 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €61.2m across 30 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-7.3
attacking end-3.6
the club’s own last season+1.2
ball-winning-0.9
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Satoshi Tanaka Dusseldorf · 2026-06-30
  • Junior Adamu Freiburg · 2026-06-30
  • Kevin Muller Heidenheim · 2026-07-07
  • Robin Gosens Fiorentina · 2026-07-16
  • Steve Noode Union Titus Petange · 2026-06-29
  • Mauro Zalazar Braga · 2026-06-29
  • Jakob Sachse Viktoria Koln · 2026-06-29
  • Martin Wasinski RFC Liege · 2026-06-29
  • Ilyes Hamache Amiens · 2026-06-29
  • Felipe Sanchez Santos Laguna · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Nick Bodon Braunschweig · 2026-06-29
  • Max Hauswirth Heracles · 2026-06-29
  • Ilyes Hamache Cambuur · 2026-06-29
  • Henning Matriciani no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Tim-Justin Dietrich Preussen Munster · 2026-06-29
  • Christopher Antwi-Adjei no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Edin Dzeko no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Peter Remmert Duisburg · 2026-06-30
  • Felipe Sanchez Santos Laguna · 2026-07-04
  • Luca Podlech Aalesund · 2026-07-13
  • Raphael Ott Viktoria Koln · 2026-06-29
  • Moussa N'Diaye Anderlecht · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Hasan KurucayDSchalkethe 2. Bundesliga2439314096
Soufian El-FaouziMSchalkethe 2. Bundesliga3007342586
Kenan KaramanFSchalkethe 2. Bundesliga27153214584
Robin GosensDFiorentinaSerie A1893303171
Nikola KaticDSchalkethe 2. Bundesliga2268261183
Vitalie BeckerMSchalkethe 2. Bundesliga1541232193
Union Berlinprojected 36 pts · band 28–45 · 1.10 scored and 1.75 conceded per game · Mauro Lustrinelli
squad age (by minutes) 25.5minutes from above 0%from below 17%last season’s minutes retained 70%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Bundesliga 83%, the Belgian Pro League 11%, the 3. Liga 3%.

We project 36 points (28–45), against a division average of 47. Last season: 39 points in the Bundesliga, finishing 11th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-9), the club’s own last season (-2) points. Of the 22 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 11 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €134.3m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-9.4
the club’s own last season-2.1
attacking end+0.3
ball-winning+0.1
minutes from the Championship or above-0.0

In since 1 May

  • Luka Vulin Union Berlin U19 · 2026-06-30
  • Oskar Engel Union Berlin · 2026-06-30
  • Zeno Van Den Bosch Antwerp · 2026-06-30
  • Stanley Nsoki Hoffenheim · 2026-06-30
  • Marvin Friedrich B. Monchengladbach · 2026-06-30
  • Julien Friedrich Altglienicke · 2026-06-29
  • Oluwaseun Ogbemudia Mannheim · 2026-06-29
  • Yannic Stein Babelsberg · 2026-06-29
  • Marin Ljubicic Dusseldorf · 2026-06-29
  • Chris Bedia Young Boys · 2026-06-29
  • Laszlo Benes Kayserispor · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Yannic Stein Hansa Rostock · 2026-06-29
  • Diogo Leite no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Alex Kral FC Copenhagen · 2026-06-29
  • Laszlo Benes Gent · 2026-06-29
  • Rani Khedira no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Christopher Trimmel no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Leon Prosche Aue · 2026-06-30
  • David Preu Stuttgart II · 2026-06-30
  • Tom Wisbereit Augsburg · 2026-07-12
  • Danilho Doekhi Lazio · 2026-07-12
  • Stanley Nsoki Hoffenheim · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Leopold QuerfeldDUnion Berlinthe Bundesliga2704333070
Andrej IlicFUnion Berlinthe Bundesliga2256325960
Zeno Van Den BoschDAntwerpthe Belgian Pro League3071360169
Oliver BurkeFUnion Berlinthe Bundesliga1691336267
Aljoscha KemleinMUnion Berlinthe Bundesliga1967340256
Derrick KohnDUnion Berlinthe Bundesliga1910311252
Elversbergprojected 32 pts · band 24–41 · 1.10 scored and 1.78 conceded per game · Vincent Wagner
squad age (by minutes) 25.8minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 86%

Last season those minutes were played in: the 2. Bundesliga 92%, the Eerste Divisie 4%, the 3. Liga 4%.

We project 32 points (24–41), against a division average of 47. Last season: 62 points in the 2. Bundesliga, finishing 2nd. What pulls them down: squad quality (-8), ball-winning (-4), attacking end (-3) points. Of the 22 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 6 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €53.2m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-7.7
ball-winning-3.9
attacking end-3.1
the club’s own last season-0.2
minutes from the Championship or above+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Francis Onyeka Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-06-30
  • Noah Darvich Stuttgart · 2026-06-30
  • Maurice Krattenmacher Bayern Munich · 2026-06-30
  • Lukasz Poreba Hamburger SV · 2026-06-30
  • Cole Campbell Dortmund · 2026-07-08
  • Filimon Gerezgiher FC Emmen · 2026-06-29
  • Jason Ceka SG Dynamo Dresden · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Daniel Pantschenko no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Manuel Feil no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Patryk Dragon no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Mohammad Mahmoud A. Salzburg · 2026-07-12
  • Jarzinho Malanga Stuttgart · 2026-06-29
  • Bambase Conte Hoffenheim · 2026-06-29
  • Lukasz Poreba Hamburger SV · 2026-06-29
  • Immanuel Pherai Hamburger SV · 2026-06-29
  • Noah Darvich Stuttgart · 2027-06-30
  • Francis Onyeka Bayer Leverkusen · 2027-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Maximilian RohrDElversbergthe 2. Bundesliga2449313299
Lukas PetkovMElversbergthe 2. Bundesliga27393313692
Lukasz PorebaMElversbergthe 2. Bundesliga2753331390
Tom ZimmerschiedFElversbergthe 2. Bundesliga2677333977
Lukas PinckertDElversbergthe 2. Bundesliga2446300079
Noah DarvichMStuttgart IIthe 3. Liga1303176293
Paderbornprojected 32 pts · band 23–40 · 1.07 scored and 1.76 conceded per game · Ralf Kettemann
squad age (by minutes) 24.6minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 76%

Last season those minutes were played in: the 2. Bundesliga 84%, the 3. Liga 16%.

We project 32 points (23–40), against a division average of 47. Last season: 62 points in the 2. Bundesliga, finishing 3rd. What pulls them down: squad quality (-10), attacking end (-4), ball-winning (-2) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 15 are still on the list. 7 of the 29 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €49.0m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-9.9
attacking end-3.7
ball-winning-1.9
minutes from the Championship or above+0.4
the club’s own last season-0.2

In since 1 May

  • Luka Duric Hoffenheim II · 2026-06-30
  • Anastasios Kitos Dortmund · 2026-06-30
  • Clemens Lippmann Munich 1860 · 2026-06-30
  • Albert Millgramm Magdeburg · 2026-06-30
  • Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant Cottbus · 2026-06-30
  • Martin Ens Verl · 2026-06-30
  • Nahuel Noll Hoffenheim · 2026-06-30
  • Jano ter Horst Preussen Munster · 2026-06-30
  • Timur Gayret Verl · 2026-06-30
  • Oliver Batista Meier Preussen Munster · 2026-06-30
  • Tom Baack Nurnberg · 2026-06-30
  • Ibrahim Touray Jeddeloh · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Anton Bauerle Saarbrucken · 2026-06-29
  • Filip Bilbija no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Calvin Brackelmann Augsburg · 2026-06-29
  • David Kinsombi no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Ibrahim Touray Emden · 2026-06-30
  • Kevin Krumme Fortuna Koln · 2026-06-30
  • Lucas Copado Cottbus · 2026-06-30
  • Bennit Broger Fortuna Koln · 2026-07-02
  • Marco Worner Regensburg · 2026-07-06
  • Dennis Seimen Stuttgart · 2026-06-29
  • Nahuel Noll Hoffenheim · 2027-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Laurin CurdaMPaderbornthe 2. Bundesliga2778327797
Raphael ObermairMPaderbornthe 2. Bundesliga2456282798
Mika BaurMPaderbornthe 2. Bundesliga2667344591
Timur GayretFVerlthe 3. Liga1990233495
Felix GotzeDPaderbornthe 2. Bundesliga2408311281
Oliver Batista MeierMPreussen Munsterthe 2. Bundesliga2178346475
What this does not know. Squads are as our club feed returned them on 2026-07-28, and the window is still open — a signing made after that is missing, and the model would rate him if he were there. 138 of the 522 registered players have no measured season in our data at all: academy graduates and men signed from divisions we do not cover. They are simply left out of their club’s number rather than guessed at — which is its own kind of blindness, and the count is printed on every club card. We tried making the count of them an input: it improved the backtest and we dropped it anyway, because in the backtest a squad is the men who played and today it is the men a club has registered, so clubs with large academies were being marked down for paperwork. Ratings come from our match-level player records, which start to thin out below the fourth tier. The model has no transfer fees, no injuries, no coaches, no budgets and no pre-season, and it treats last season’s minutes as the guide to this season’s — so a club that has just changed manager and bought a first eleven is exactly where it will be most wrong. It is a projection of a season, not a guide to a match, and it is not a betting product.

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