The opening round of the Championship explains 1.2 per cent of the season
Championship 2026/27, matchday one · 14–17 August 2026 ·
twelve matches, two goalkeepers and the least informative first round in England.
Updated 18 August 2026, 12:51 UTC.
Measured inside the Championship alone — 580 club-seasons —
the goal difference a club takes out of matchday one correlates with its points per game across
the rest of that season at +0.11, and last season's points per game correlates at
+0.33. Squared, that is 1.2 per cent and 10.9 per cent of what follows.
The same two numbers in the Premier League are 10.8 and 54.5. Of the five divisions we
hold, this is the one where the opening weekend means least — and this particular
weekend went out of its way to prove it.
division
matchday 1 explains
last season explains
Premier League
10.8%
54.5%
Championship
1.2%
10.9%
League One
1.7%
10.2%
League Two
3.6%
11.6%
Correlation between a club's points per game in the rest of the season and
(left) its matchday-one goal difference, (right) its points per game the season before, then
squared. 448–624 club-seasons a division, every season we hold, measured inside one
division at a time. Pooling divisions inflates both columns, because it also measures the gap
between divisions.
They shot more, shot worse, and scored the usual number
Against 313 earlier blocks of twelve Championship matches in our own database, this
round sits in the top tenth for shots and the bottom tenth for accuracy, and dead on the median
for what those two produce. 317 shots is 26.4 a match against a median round's
23.7, and only 31 of 313 rounds had more. 92 of them were on target, which is
29.0 per cent against a median of 32.8, and only 32 rounds of 313 were
less accurate. Goals per shot came out at 0.107, against a median of 0.105.
This is worth a paragraph because the headline number for a round like this is usually
conversion from shots on target, and here it reads 37.0 per cent against a
median round's 32.1 — about one round in seven, and the only aggregate on the page
that looks up. It looks up mostly because the denominator was small. Everything else was the
median: 34 goals against 30, 5.38 corners a side against a long-run 5.09, and
four home wins, four draws, four away wins. The side with more of the ball also went
four, four and four.
4 home wins · 4 draws · 4 away wins · 34
goals, 17 of them before half-time · 317 shots, 92 on target,
208 from inside the box · 129 corners · 40 yellow cards,
1 red · 304,493 watching across all 12 grounds, an
average of 25,374 a match. For comparison, League One's opening round the
same weekend averaged 10,331 across the eight grounds that reported.
Where it stopped being average: two goalkeepers
The two highest-rated players of the round were both goalkeepers, both made
seven saves, and in both matches the side that had the shots did not win.
Max O'Leary, West Brom, rated 9.6 — the best mark of the round. Norwich had
seven shots on target to four and 2.72 expected goals to 1.45, and lost 1–2 at home.
With three minutes left he also kicked the ball up the pitch for Jimmy Morgan to make it 0–2 — Norwich scored in the 90th, so the goalkeeper's assist is the reason West Brom went home with three points rather than one. Norwich end the weekend as the
club that deserved most and got least: −1.94 on our luck column.
Nathan Trott, Cardiff, rated 8.5. Wrexham put eight shots on target on him
at the Cardiff City Stadium and took a point. Eight or more shots on target away from home,
without winning, has happened 53 times in 7,612 Championship club-matches — about
one in 144. Note what expected goals says about those eight: only 1.49, or 0.19
a shot. Wrexham hit the target repeatedly from positions that were not worth much.
Bristol City lost 0–2 without a shot on target, and with ten men from the 36th
Adam Randell collected two yellows inside 36 minutes; Bristol City then played the rest of
the match at Ashton Gate and did not put a single shot on target. A club-match with
zero shots on target happens 231 times in 7,612 here — one in 33 —
but at home it is 81 in 3,806, one in 47, and at home while losing it is one in
73. Millwall's 3.00 expected goals were the highest single-side figure of the round, and
Josh Coburn scored twice.
Middlesbrough had 77 per cent of the ball and needed the 90th minute
Lincoln, promoted as League One champions on 103 points, led at half-time at the Riverside
through Adam Reach and lost to a Will Lankshear goal in the 90th. Seventy-seven per cent
possession is one club-match in 218 in this division; sides holding 75 per cent or more
win only 31 per cent of the time. Boro's 627 passes were the most any side attempted
all weekend; Lincoln attempted 182 and were two minutes from a point.
The three who came down all drew
Wolves, Burnley and West Ham arrived from the Premier League and took three points from
nine, one apiece, two of them against each other at Turf Moor. That is 1.00 points a
game against an average of 1.49 for relegated clubs across 23 seasons of
opening rounds — but eight of those 23 seasons were as bad or worse, so this is a soft
start, not a collapse. The three promoted from League One did what promoted clubs normally do:
Bolton won, Cardiff drew, Lincoln lost, 1.33 points a game against a 25-season average of
1.29.
Who was actually misread
If the result explains 1.2 per cent, the useful question is not who won but who made the
most and took the least. Deserved goals are what the shots on target were worth;
luck is the actual goal margin minus the deserved one. Positive luck means a club took
more than it made.
club
pts
score
deserved
luck
QPR
3
3–1
1.88–1.88
+2.00
West Brom
3
2–1
1.26–2.20
+1.94
Cardiff
1
1–1
0.63–2.51
+1.88
Millwall
3
2–0
0.94–0.00
+1.06
Charlton
3
2–1
1.26–1.26
+1.00
West Ham
1
2–2
0.63–1.57
+0.94
Swansea
3
2–1
0.94–0.63
+0.69
Watford
3
2–1
1.26–0.94
+0.68
Wolves
1
2–2
0.94–1.57
+0.63
Lincoln
0
1–2
0.63–2.20
+0.57
Sheffield Utd
1
0–0
0.31–0.63
+0.32
Bolton
3
2–1
1.88–0.94
+0.06
Preston
0
1–2
0.94–1.88
-0.06
Birmingham
1
0–0
0.63–0.31
-0.32
Middlesbrough
3
2–1
2.20–0.63
-0.57
Blackburn
1
2–2
1.57–0.94
-0.63
Southampton
0
1–2
0.94–1.26
-0.68
Stoke
0
1–2
0.63–0.94
-0.69
Burnley
1
2–2
1.57–0.63
-0.94
Derby
0
1–2
1.26–1.26
-1.00
Bristol City
0
0–2
0.00–0.94
-1.06
Wrexham
1
1–1
2.51–0.63
-1.88
Norwich
0
1–2
2.20–1.26
-1.94
Portsmouth
0
1–3
1.88–1.88
-2.00
How this is measured, and what it cannot do
Deserved goals are not expected goals. They are our own number:
0.314 goals per shot on target, fitted on 7,612 Championship club-matches. Deliberately
simple — and on the 3,256 club-matches where we hold both, it tracks goals slightly
better than the expected-goals figure we are sent (r = 0.573 against 0.533; mean
absolute error 0.72 against 0.76). It knows nothing about where a shot was taken from, which
is exactly what it lost to Wrexham's eight on-target shots for 1.49 expected goals.
Where the two numbers disagreed most, expected goals was right.
Millwall put three shots on target at Ashton Gate and our number values that at 0.94 goals;
expected goals valued it at 3.00, the highest single-side figure of the round, and they
won 2–0. Wrexham put eight on target at Cardiff for 2.51 of ours against 1.49
expected, and drew. Both times the difference is shot quality, which our number cannot see and
theirs can. Over 3,256 club-matches ours is still the better predictor; over one round it was
beaten twice at the extremes, and that is the honest version.
This round beat both. 34 goals against 31.70 expected and
28.89 deserved. Before anyone calls that clinical: across 134 comparable blocks of twelve
matches, the median round outscores its expected goals by 0.92, and 49 of the 134 beat it by
this much or more. Finishing above expected goals is the normal state of this division, not
an event.
Why the Championship gets a page with expected goals and League One does
not. The detailed feed covers 30 per cent of the Championship club-matches we hold
against 8 and 9 per cent for League One and League Two, and for this round it delivered all
twelve matches, both halves, and 480 player rows. The two divisions below had their box scores
frozen from 14 August, the day before their season started.
Two rows of rubbish. Two 2022 club-matches carry expected-goals values
of 390 and 442. Left in, they make the division's expected goals look 13 per cent inflated;
filtered out, expected goals is well calibrated here (goals run 3.4 per cent above it over
3,256 club-matches). Every figure on this page uses the filtered version.
Sources. Match and player statistics from our own feed, stored in our
own database. Historical rates, last season's tables and the correlations above are our own
calculations over the seasons we hold; no third-party table is reproduced here.
Every match, if you want to check
The scorelines and the raw match statistics below are on any live-score site.
They are here so every number above can be traced back to the match it came from.
Blackburn: Sean McLoughlin 8.2(1g) · Andri Guðjohnsen 8.0(1g) · Sam Morsy 7.0(1 key passes)
Points shared on 0.94 deserved goals to 1.57. Expected goals had it 2.04 to 0.82, against 2–2 on the board. Conversion: 4 goals from 8 shots on target (50.0%), against a Championship average of 32.1%.
Bolton won it and deserved it (1.88 to 0.94). Expected goals had it 1.10 to 0.81, against 2–1 on the board. Conversion: 3 goals from 9 shots on target (33.3%), against a Championship average of 32.1%.
66'Adam Idah (Swansea) (assist J. Tymon)· 25 · forward · €4100k · on at 65'
Best rated
Stoke: Eric Bocat 7.0(1g, 1 key passes) · Djibril Soumaré 6.9 · Viktor Johansson 6.7(1 saves)
Swansea: Joseph Opoku 7.9(1g) · Josh Tymon 7.2(1a, 2 key passes) · Adam Idah 7.2(1g)
On shots on target the two sides were level (0.63 deserved goals to 0.94) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Expected goals had it 0.63 to 0.61, against 1–2 on the board. Conversion: 3 goals from 5 shots on target (60.0%), against a Championship average of 32.1%.
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.88 deserved goals to 1.88) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Expected goals had it 2.00 to 2.04, against 1–3 on the board. Conversion: 4 goals from 12 shots on target (33.3%), against a Championship average of 32.1%.
West Brom: Max O'Leary 9.6(1a, 7 saves, 1 key passes) · Jimmy Morgan 8.0(1g, 1a, 3 key passes) · Nathaniel Phillips 7.6
Norwich deserved more (2.20 to 1.26) and did not win it. Expected goals had it 2.72 to 1.45, against 1–2 on the board. Conversion: 3 goals from 11 shots on target (27.3%), against a Championship average of 32.1%.
Middlesbrough: Adilson Malanda 7.9(1 key passes) · Luke Ayling 7.5(1 key passes) · Sebastian Berhalter 7.3(1 key passes)
Lincoln: Ben House 7.3 · Conor McGrandles 7.2 · Ivan Varfolomeev 7.2(2 key passes)
Middlesbrough won it and deserved it (2.20 to 0.63). Expected goals had it 2.22 to 0.62, against 2–1 on the board. Conversion: 3 goals from 9 shots on target (33.3%), against a Championship average of 32.1%. Middlesbrough held 77% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.01.
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.26 deserved goals to 1.26) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Expected goals had it 1.07 to 1.01, against 2–1 on the board. Conversion: 3 goals from 8 shots on target (37.5%), against a Championship average of 32.1%.
Bristol City: Rob Dickie 7.5 · Joe Williams 7.3 · Jed Wallace 6.7
Millwall: Josh Coburn 8.9(2g, 4 key passes) · Casper De Norre 7.5 · Caleb Taylor 7.5(1 key passes)
Millwall won it and deserved it (0.94 to 0.00). Expected goals had it 0.50 to 3.00, against 0–2 on the board. Conversion: 2 goals from 3 shots on target (66.7%), against a Championship average of 32.1%. Millwall held 66% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.01.
half-time 0–0 · 27 684 attendance · referee G. Ward · Bramall Lane
Chris Wilder (4-2-2-2) against Chris Davies (4-2-3-1)
last season: Sheffield Utd 13th in the Championship on 1.30 points a game · Birmingham 10th in the Championship on 1.39
Full match
0
goals
0
0.36
expected goals
0.65
0.31
deserved goals (ours)
0.63
1
shots on target
2
2
shots off target
5
0
shots blocked
3
3
shots total
10
3
shots inside the box
6
0
shots outside the box
4
2
corners
8
45
possession %
55
306
passes
372
194
passes completed
254
2
saves
1
12
fouls
12
2
offsides
3
0
yellow cards
0
First half
0
goals
0
0.28
expected goals
0.37
0
shots on target
0
2
shots total
4
2
corners
5
45
possession %
55
Second half
0
goals
0
0.08
expected goals
0.28
1
shots on target
2
1
shots total
6
0
corners
3
45
possession %
55
Best rated
Sheffield Utd: Michael Cooper 7.9(2 saves) · Japhet Tanganga 7.5 · Sam McCallum 7.3
Birmingham: Alex Cochrane 7.6(3 key passes) · Christoph Klarer 7.6 · Jhon Solís 7.3(1 key passes)
Points shared on 0.31 deserved goals to 0.63. Expected goals had it 0.36 to 0.65, against 0–0 on the board. Conversion: 0 goals from 3 shots on target (0.0%), against a Championship average of 32.1%.
Southampton: Ryan Manning 7.7(3 key passes) · Cyle Larin 7.7(1g, 1 key passes) · Taylor Harwood-Bellis 7.5(1 key passes)
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.26 deserved goals to 0.94) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Expected goals had it 0.83 to 1.65, against 2–1 on the board. Conversion: 3 goals from 7 shots on target (42.9%), against a Championship average of 32.1%. Southampton held 66% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.01.
Burnley: Zian Flemming 8.2(2g, 1 key passes) · Jacob Bruun Larsen 7.2(3 key passes) · Marcus Edwards 7.2(4 key passes)
West Ham: Manor Solomon 7.6(1g) · Max Kilman 7.5(1g) · Jarrod Bowen 7.2(1a, 2 key passes)
Points shared on 1.57 deserved goals to 0.63. Expected goals had it 2.10 to 1.21, against 2–2 on the board. Conversion: 4 goals from 7 shots on target (57.1%), against a Championship average of 32.1%.
half-time 0–1 · 31 421 attendance · referee A. Kitchen · Cardiff City Stadium
Brian Barry-Murphy (4-1-4-1) against Phil Parkinson (3-5-2)
last season: Cardiff 2nd in League One on 1.98 points a game · Wrexham 7th in the Championship on 1.54
Full match
1
goals
1
0.77
expected goals
1.49
0.63
deserved goals (ours)
2.51
2
shots on target
8
5
shots off target
7
3
shots blocked
3
10
shots total
18
7
shots inside the box
12
3
shots outside the box
6
9
corners
9
67
possession %
33
540
passes
258
480
passes completed
203
7
saves
2
9
fouls
12
3
offsides
1
0
yellow cards
2
First half
0
goals
1
0.36
expected goals
0.67
1
shots on target
3
4
shots total
8
2
corners
6
63
possession %
37
Second half
1
goals
0
0.41
expected goals
0.82
1
shots on target
5
6
shots total
10
7
corners
3
72
possession %
28
Goals
3'Kieffer Moore (Wrexham) (assist D. Imray)· 33 · forward · €1200k
90'Rubin Colwill (Cardiff) · 24 · midfielder · €2100k · on at 62'
Best rated
Cardiff: Nathan Trott 8.5(7 saves) · Joel Bagan 7.5(2 key passes) · Perry Ng 7.3(1 key passes)
Wrexham: Anthony Patterson 7.9(2 saves) · Callum Doyle 7.9(3 key passes) · Kieffer Moore 7.7(1g, 1 key passes)
Points shared on 0.63 deserved goals to 2.51. Expected goals had it 0.77 to 1.49, against 1–1 on the board. Conversion: 2 goals from 10 shots on target (20.0%), against a Championship average of 32.1%. Cardiff held 67% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.01.