The Championship 2026/27: a projection built from the players, club by club

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GoalSoon · built 13 August 2026 · every figure is our own calculation

24 clubs, 731 players currently registered with them, and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and published: ±11 points.

How to read the number

On this page: how it works · how wrong it is · the 24 clubs · where it disagrees with last season · where the minutes were played · club by club

The idea

A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every player registered with the 24 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.

The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on 8,624 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale. The zero has to sit somewhere and we put it on League One, so every number below reads as “this much above or below a League One season”:

DivisionLevel, in rating zMoves seen
the Premier League+1.461015
La Liga+1.181247
the Bundesliga+1.07918
Serie A+1.031524
Ligue 1+0.841139
the Championship+0.611189
the Belgian Pro League+0.45627
the Eredivisie+0.36731
the Primeira Liga+0.35652
the Segunda+0.351288
the 2. Bundesliga+0.27590
Serie B+0.231120
the Scottish Premiership+0.02408
Ligue 2+0.01658
League One+0.001560
the 3. Liga-0.17270
the HNL-0.21279
League Two-0.271267
the Challenger Pro League-0.27228
the Eerste Divisie-0.36512

The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in (+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not charged to the divisions.

What goes into a club’s number

Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:

InputWeightWhat it is
squad quality+0.300Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale.
ball-winning+0.137Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale.
minutes from the Championship or above+0.118How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division rated above League One — the Championship, the Premier League or a foreign division at that level. The threshold is fixed at League One for every page, so the input means the same thing wherever it is used. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly.
the club’s own last season+0.102What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one.
attacking end+0.101The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in.

Fitted on 362 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.

How wrong it is

Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is scored on data it was fitted on:

ApproachError, pts/gameOver 46 games
Give every club the division average0.256 ±11.8
Repeat last season, adjusted for level0.327 ±15.0
This model, from the players0.228 ±10.5

So it is worth about 1 point of accuracy over knowing nothing, and about 5 points over assuming last season repeats. That is a real edge and a small one — on 123 club-seasons it holds against the division average at p = 0.023. The whole projected range across the division is 28 points and the error on any one club is ±11, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered, and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 24 clubs 1 to 24 in August is not measuring their own error.

The same model run on goals rather than points gives 0.209 of a goal per game of error on goals scored against 0.224 for the division average, and 0.191 against 0.201 on goals conceded. Neither is meaningfully better than knowing nothing: on this division a squad list tells you roughly where the points will land, and almost nothing about how they will be scored or conceded.

The 24 clubs

ClubProjected ptsBandScored/gameConceded/game SquadNo dataAgeMins from aboveMins from below Last season ptsWhere
Southampton7766–871.541.0733625.47%2%80the Championship
West Ham7564–851.491.12281127.093%6%39the Premier League
Middlesbrough7463–841.491.1330825.20%11%80the Championship
Millwall7261–821.461.16321125.10%19%83the Championship
Wolves7161–821.381.1533826.777%12%20the Premier League
Norwich6958–791.371.1833825.00%1%65the Championship
Wrexham6756–771.351.2133627.40%7%71the Championship
Bristol City6756–771.331.22301326.30%34%62the Championship
Swansea6656–771.331.2326726.00%21%64the Championship
Sheffield Utd6655–761.321.2228926.22%1%60the Championship
Preston6554–751.291.2525527.90%9%60the Championship
Derby6454–751.281.2430727.30%15%69the Championship
Watford6453–741.271.25341324.911%3%57the Championship
West Brom6352–731.271.29301425.90%12%53the Championship
Burnley6352–731.221.25351627.189%8%22the Premier League
Birmingham6352–731.261.27331126.911%1%64the Championship
Lincoln6050–711.221.3122527.80%95%103League One
QPR5949–701.181.30341224.40%18%58the Championship
Stoke5949–701.181.3131925.80%11%55the Championship
Blackburn5645–661.101.3535826.40%7%52the Championship
Portsmouth5544–651.101.37351427.60%15%55the Championship
Cardiff5343–641.101.3927824.80%100%91League One
Bolton5241–621.051.4323525.80%96%75League One
Charlton4838–590.981.4631526.50%25%53the Championship

▲ upper group   ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection ± half the measured error, not by predicted position. Age is the squad’s average age weighted by the minutes each man played last season, so it describes the side that actually plays rather than the registration list. Mins from above and from below are the shares of last season’s measured minutes played in a division rated higher or lower than this one; the rest were played at this level or in a division we cannot place.

Where it disagrees with last season

The plainest rival to this model is “whatever the club did last season, corrected for the division it did it in” — the second row of the error table above. Here is that number next to ours, club by club. Where the two agree, the squad has not really changed. Where they part, the summer did something the table cannot see:

ClubLast seasonRepeat it, level-adjustedThis model Difference
Lincoln103 pts, League One, 1st9060-30
Wolves20 pts, the Premier League, 20th4271+30
Cardiff91 pts, League One, 2nd7753-24
Burnley22 pts, the Premier League, 19th4463+19
Bolton75 pts, League One, 5th6452-12
Millwall83 pts, the Championship, 3rd8372-11
West Ham39 pts, the Premier League, 17th6575+10
West Brom53 pts, the Championship, 19th5563+7
Middlesbrough80 pts, the Championship, 5th8174-7
Bristol City62 pts, the Championship, 12th6067+6
Preston60 pts, the Championship, 14th6065+5
Wrexham71 pts, the Championship, 7th7267-5
Sheffield Utd60 pts, the Championship, 13th6266+4
Watford57 pts, the Championship, 16th6064+4
Swansea64 pts, the Championship, 11th6266+4
Blackburn52 pts, the Championship, 22nd5256+3
Derby69 pts, the Championship, 8th6764-3
Charlton53 pts, the Championship, 20th5148-3
Norwich65 pts, the Championship, 9th6669+2
Southampton80 pts, the Championship, 4th7977-2
Stoke55 pts, the Championship, 17th5859+2
Birmingham64 pts, the Championship, 10th6463-2
Portsmouth55 pts, the Championship, 18th5355+1
QPR58 pts, the Championship, 15th5859+1

Sorted by the size of the disagreement. The level adjustment is why a club promoted from League One does not simply keep its 25/26 points total: a point won a division lower is worth less here, and the size of that discount is the measured one from the transfers table above, not a guess.

Where the minutes were played

Every club number on this page is built out of last season’s minutes, so it is worth seeing where those minutes come from. Across the division, the 731 registered players carry 10,313 full games of measured playing time from 2025/26, split like this:

Division those minutes were played inMinutesShare Level, in rating z
the Championship637,67668.7%+0.61
League One136,01614.7%+0.00
the Premier League67,8407.3%+1.46
the Scottish Premiership23,1012.5%+0.02
the Eredivisie13,8471.5%+0.36
League Two10,0511.1%-0.27
the Belgian Pro League8,4090.9%+0.45
the Bundesliga7,8690.8%+1.07
Ligue 27,7210.8%+0.01
La Liga4,3550.5%+1.18
the Primeira Liga3,7350.4%+0.35
Serie A2,5970.3%+1.03
Ligue 12,3820.3%+0.84

Only divisions we hold match-level player data for appear here; minutes played outside them are in the “no measured season” count instead, which is 219 of the 731 registered players. Per-club splits are on each club card below.

Club by club

Southamptonprojected 77 pts · band 66–87 · 1.54 scored and 1.07 conceded per game · Tonda Eckert
squad age (by minutes) 25.4minutes from above 7%from below 2%last season’s minutes retained 84%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 92%, the Bundesliga 7%.

We project 77 points (66–87), against a division average of 64. Last season: 80 points in the Championship, finishing 4th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+7), attacking end (+3), the club’s own last season (+2) points. Of the 32 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 6 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 27. Squad value on our player feed: €177.0m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+7.0
attacking end+3.3
the club’s own last season+1.8
minutes from the Championship or above+1.0
ball-winning+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Daniel Peretz Bayern Munich · 2026-06-30
  • Cyle Larin Mallorca · 2026-06-30
  • George Long Norwich · 2026-06-30
  • Lewis Dobbin Aston Villa · 2026-07-14
  • Jayden Moore Eastleigh · 2026-05-30
  • Romeo Akachukwu Colchester · 2026-05-30
  • Princewill Ehibhatiomhan Salford · 2026-05-30
  • Oliver Wright Accrington · 2026-05-30
  • Joe Aribo Leicester · 2026-05-31
  • Ben Brereton Diaz Derby · 2026-05-31
  • Gavin Bazunu Stoke · 2026-05-31
  • Daouda Traore Bari · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • William Smallbone no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Joe Aribo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Ross Stewart no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jamie Jones no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Oliver Wright Gillingham · 2026-07-02
  • Oriol Romeu Avispa Fukuoka · 2026-07-11
  • Charlie Taylor Derby · 2026-07-12
  • Alex McCarthy Leicester · 2026-07-14
  • Samuel Tabares Gillingham · 2026-07-27
  • Elias Jelert Galatasaray · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Peretz Bayern Munich · 2026-06-29
  • Cyle Larin Mallorca · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Taylor Harwood-BellisDSouthamptonthe Championship36004461100
Ryan ManningDSouthamptonthe Championship3208458699
Leo ScienzaMSouthamptonthe Championship232537710100
Finn AzazMSouthamptonthe Championship29634110790
Caspar JanderMSouthamptonthe Championship2653392188
Jack StephensDSouthamptonthe Championship2707412085
West Hamprojected 75 pts · band 64–85 · 1.49 scored and 1.12 conceded per game · Nuno Espirito Santo
squad age (by minutes) 27.0minutes from above 93%from below 6%last season’s minutes retained 69%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 93%, the Primeira Liga 3%.

We project 75 points (64–85), against a division average of 64. Last season: 39 points in the Premier League, finishing 17th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+7), ball-winning (+3), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. Of the 28 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 11 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €329.9m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+6.7
ball-winning+3.1
minutes from the Championship or above+0.9
attacking end+0.3
the club’s own last season+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Keiber Lamadrid La Guaira · 2026-06-30
  • Gideon Kodua Luton · 2026-05-30
  • Mason Terry Braintree · 2026-05-30
  • George Earthy Bristol City · 2026-05-30
  • Junior Robinson Boreham Wood · 2026-05-30
  • Michael Forbes Northampton · 2026-05-30
  • James Ward-Prowse Burnley · 2026-05-30
  • Ryan Battrum Braintree · 2026-06-29
  • Callum Marshall Bochum · 2026-06-29
  • Kaelan Casey Leyton Orient · 2026-06-29
  • Krisztian Hegyi MTK Budapest · 2026-06-29
  • Edson Alvarez Fenerbahce · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Gideon Kodua Luton · 2026-06-29
  • Michael Forbes Dundee Utd · 2026-06-29
  • Krisztian Hegyi Sparta Prague · 2026-06-29
  • Adama Traore no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Lukasz Fabianski no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Mateus Fernandes Tottenham · 2026-06-30
  • Mason Terry Port Vale · 2026-07-05
  • Callum Wilson Brentford · 2026-07-07
  • Crysencio Summerville Al Hilal · 2026-07-22
  • Callum Marshall Luton · 2026-07-28
  • Freddie Potts West Ham U21 · 2026-08-02
  • Keiber Lamadrid La Guaira · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Jarrod BowenMWest Hamthe Premier League33153791184
Konstantinos MavropanosDWest Hamthe Premier League2445333092
Malick Diouf El HadjiDWest Hamthe Premier League2711320548
Tomas SoucekMWest Hamthe Premier League2170345048
Taty CastellanosFWest Hamthe Premier League1395186071
PabloFGil Vicentethe Primeira Liga8811210198
Middlesbroughprojected 74 pts · band 63–84 · 1.49 scored and 1.13 conceded per game · Kim Hellberg
squad age (by minutes) 25.2minutes from above 0%from below 11%last season’s minutes retained 67%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 89%, League One 5%, League Two 4%.

We project 74 points (63–84), against a division average of 64. Last season: 80 points in the Championship, finishing 5th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+6), the club’s own last season (+2), attacking end (+1) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 8 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €118.9m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+5.7
the club’s own last season+2.1
attacking end+1.4
ball-winning+0.9
minutes from the Championship or above+0.4

In since 1 May

  • Jeremy Sarmiento Brighton · 2026-06-30
  • Myles Peart-Harris Oxford Utd · 2026-06-30
  • Kyle Joseph Hull · 2026-07-09
  • Will Lankshear Tottenham · 2026-07-21
  • Sebastian Berhalter Vancouver Whitecaps · 2026-07-27
  • Archie Baptiste Rochdale · 2026-05-30
  • Jayden Carbon Ross County · 2026-05-30
  • Sonny Finch South Shields · 2026-05-30
  • Borges Neto Bristol City · 2026-05-30
  • Marcus Forss Bolton · 2026-05-30
  • Daniel Barlaser Hibernian · 2026-05-30
  • Abdoulaye Kante St Etienne · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Sam Silvera MK Dons · 2026-06-29
  • Alex Gilbert no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Hayden Hackney Everton · 2026-06-29
  • Marcus Forss no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Barlaser MK Dons · 2026-06-29
  • Darragh Lenihan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jon McLaughlin no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Dael Fry Birmingham · 2026-07-01
  • Joe Wildsmith West Brom · 2026-05-30
  • Alan Browne Sunderland · 2026-05-30
  • Jeremy Sarmiento Brighton · 2026-06-29
  • Matt Targett Newcastle · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Luke AylingDMiddlesbroughthe Championship3421431599
Aidan MorrisMMiddlesbroughthe Championship3119390399
Tommy ConwayFMiddlesbroughthe Championship35134513490
Morgan WhittakerMMiddlesbroughthe Championship26524114789
Borges NetoDBristol Citythe Championship2648380370
Kyle JosephFHullthe Championship2305438576
Millwallprojected 72 pts · band 61–82 · 1.46 scored and 1.16 conceded per game · Alex Neil
squad age (by minutes) 25.1minutes from above 0%from below 19%last season’s minutes retained 74%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 81%, League One 7%, the Belgian Pro League 7%, Ligue 2 5%.

We project 72 points (61–82), against a division average of 64. Last season: 83 points in the Championship, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+5), the club’s own last season (+2) points. Of the 30 men who played for them last season, 15 are still on the list. 11 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €103.8m across 33 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+5.4
the club’s own last season+2.4
attacking end+0.4
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3
ball-winning-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Tairyk Arconte Rodez · 2026-06-30
  • Jenson Metcalfe Bradford City · 2026-06-30
  • Archie Kirby Millwall · 2026-07-02
  • Mathis Servais KV Mechelen · 2026-07-05
  • Mark Sykes Bristol City · 2026-07-08
  • Elkan Baggott Ipswich · 2026-07-14
  • Jeremiah Lisbie Kyrell Peterborough · 2026-07-25
  • Danny Batth Derby · 2026-08-01
  • Ajay Matthews Leyton Orient · 2026-05-30
  • Adam Mayor Cambridge Utd · 2026-05-30
  • Kamarl Grant Blackpool · 2026-05-30
  • Wes Harding Plymouth · 2026-05-30

Out since 1 May

  • Wes Harding Plymouth · 2026-06-29
  • Joe Bryan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Massimo Luongo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Macaulay Langstaff Salford · 2026-07-01
  • Barry Bannan Sheffield Wed · 2026-07-07
  • Adam Mayor Hibernian · 2026-07-12
  • Billy Mitchell Sheffield Wed · 2026-07-17
  • Dan McNamara Charlton · 2026-07-21
  • Rafiq Lamptey Chesterfield · 2026-07-29
  • Kamarl Grant Bromley · 2026-07-31
  • Tom Watson Brighton · 2026-05-30
  • Anthony Patterson Sunderland · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Femi AzeezMMillwallthe Championship2653339798
Jake CooperDMillwallthe Championship3786424193
Tristan CramaDMillwallthe Championship3843433687
Caleb TaylorDMillwallthe Championship2069343296
Mathis ServaisMKV Mechelenthe Belgian Pro League2796332481
Camiel NeghliMMillwallthe Championship3050435371
Wolvesprojected 71 pts · band 61–82 · 1.38 scored and 1.15 conceded per game · Cesar Peixoto
squad age (by minutes) 26.7minutes from above 77%from below 12%last season’s minutes retained 74%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 68%, the Championship 10%, the Belgian Pro League 7%, Ligue 1 6%.

We project 71 points (61–82), against a division average of 64. Last season: 20 points in the Premier League, finishing 20th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+5), squad quality (+4), attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-3) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 8 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €252.2m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
ball-winning+4.9
squad quality+3.8
the club’s own last season-2.6
attacking end+1.1
minutes from the Championship or above+0.8

In since 1 May

  • Ladislav Krejci Girona · 2026-06-30
  • Raul Jimenez Fulham · 2026-06-30
  • Kieran Trippier Newcastle · 2026-06-30
  • Rafiki Said St. Liege · 2026-07-10
  • Lewys Benjamin Chester · 2026-05-30
  • Bin Xu Barnsley · 2026-05-30
  • Nasser Djiga Rangers · 2026-05-30
  • James Storer Morton · 2026-05-30
  • Alfie Pond Crewe · 2026-05-30
  • Temple Ojinnaka Shrewsbury · 2026-05-30
  • Nigel Lonwijk Luton · 2026-05-30
  • Thomas Doyle Birmingham · 2026-05-31

Out since 1 May

  • James Storer Plymouth · 2026-06-29
  • Alfie Pond Chesterfield · 2026-07-04
  • Gomes Joao Aston Villa · 2026-07-18
  • Matt Doherty Sheffield Utd · 2026-07-18
  • Nigel Lonwijk Maccabi Haifa · 2026-07-22
  • Emmanuel Arokodare Toluwalase Ajax · 2026-07-28
  • Angel Gomes Marseille · 2026-05-30
  • Ladislav Krejci Girona · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Rafiki SaidMSt. Liegethe Belgian Pro League2756378490
Mateus ManeFWolvesthe Premier League1655242082
AndreMWolvesthe Premier League2383301057
Raul JimenezFFulhamthe Premier League2037349361
Adam ArmstrongFSouthamptonthe Championship20392911482
Santiago BuenoDWolvesthe Premier League2193322146
Norwichprojected 69 pts · band 58–79 · 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded per game · Philippe Clement
squad age (by minutes) 25.0minutes from above 0%from below 1%last season’s minutes retained 88%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 99%.

We project 69 points (58–79), against a division average of 64. Last season: 65 points in the Championship, finishing 9th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+2), attacking end (+1), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. Of the 30 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 8 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €91.3m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+1.9
attacking end+1.2
minutes from the Championship or above+1.0
ball-winning+0.8
the club’s own last season+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Alves Bruno Cruzeiro · 2026-06-30
  • Andre Brooks Sheffield Utd · 2026-06-30
  • Sam Field QPR · 2026-06-30
  • George Long Southampton · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Tony Springett Leyton Orient · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Barden no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Emiliano Marcondes no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • George Long Southampton · 2026-06-29
  • Jeffrey Schlupp no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Shane Duffy no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Louie Moulden Accrington · 2026-06-30
  • Sam Field QPR · 2026-05-30
  • Harry Amass Manchester Utd · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Kenny McLeanMNorwichthe Championship3440403398
Harry DarlingDNorwichthe Championship2836421083
Pelle MattssonMNorwichthe Championship2453343087
Ali AhmedFNorwichthe Championship1265184397
Ruairi McConvilleDNorwichthe Championship2079340181
Vladan KovacevicGNorwichthe Championship3780420062
Wrexhamprojected 67 pts · band 56–77 · 1.35 scored and 1.21 conceded per game · Phil Parkinson
squad age (by minutes) 27.4minutes from above 0%from below 7%last season’s minutes retained 92%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 93%, League One 6%.

We project 67 points (56–77), against a division average of 64. Last season: 71 points in the Championship, finishing 7th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+2), the club’s own last season (+1), attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 6 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 27. Squad value on our player feed: €76.3m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+1.9
ball-winning-1.3
the club’s own last season+1.0
attacking end+1.0
minutes from the Championship or above+0.6

In since 1 May

  • Daniel Imray Crystal Palace · 2026-07-28
  • Rio Owen Caernarfon · 2026-05-29
  • Tom Kelly Bala · 2026-05-30
  • Max Purvis Flint · 2026-05-30
  • Jake Bickerstaff Cheltenham · 2026-05-30
  • Seb Revan Burton · 2026-05-30
  • Ryan Hardie Huddersfield · 2026-05-30
  • Elliot Lee Doncaster · 2026-05-30
  • Harry Ashfield Cheltenham · 2026-06-29
  • Mo Faal Cheltenham · 2026-06-29
  • Andy Cannon Burton · 2026-06-29
  • Paul Mullin Bradford City · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Jack Fisher Llandudno · 2026-06-29
  • Tom Kelly no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Max Purvis Bangor 1876 · 2026-06-29
  • Callum Edwards no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Reuben Egan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Thomas O'Connor Peterborough · 2026-06-29
  • Jay Rodriguez no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Mo Faal Port Vale · 2026-07-07
  • Andy Cannon Fleetwood · 2026-07-12
  • Paul Mullin Rotherham · 2026-07-27
  • Issa Kabore Manchester City · 2026-05-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Kieffer MooreFWrexhamthe Championship26033811492
George DobsonMWrexhamthe Championship2886422288
Lewis O'BrienMWrexhamthe Championship2633424689
George ThomasonMWrexhamthe Championship2569392490
Josh WindassMWrexhamthe Championship23754115584
Nathan BroadheadFWrexhamthe Championship1812427391
Bristol Cityprojected 67 pts · band 56–77 · 1.33 scored and 1.22 conceded per game · Roy Hodgson
squad age (by minutes) 26.3minutes from above 0%from below 34%last season’s minutes retained 53%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 66%, League One 30%, the Eredivisie 4%.

We project 67 points (56–77), against a division average of 64. Last season: 62 points in the Championship, finishing 12th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+3), attacking end (+1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 12 are still on the list. 13 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €58.2m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+3.3
attacking end+1.0
minutes from the Championship or above-0.5
ball-winning-0.4
the club’s own last season-0.4

In since 1 May

  • Billy O'Neill Bray · 2026-06-30
  • Gibson Yah FC Volendam · 2026-06-30
  • Sam Tickle Wigan · 2026-06-30
  • Sam Greenwood Pogon Szczecin · 2026-06-30
  • Jed Wallace West Brom · 2026-07-02
  • Lisav Eissat Maccabi Haifa · 2026-07-10
  • Bradley Collins Coventry · 2026-07-11
  • Lorent Tolaj Plymouth · 2026-07-19
  • Leo Pecover Weston-super-Mare · 2026-05-30
  • Olly Thomas Dunfermline · 2026-05-30
  • Elijah Morrison Forest Green · 2026-05-30
  • Ephraim Yeboah Carlisle · 2026-05-30

Out since 1 May

  • Sinclair Armstrong Goztepe · 2026-06-29
  • Ross McCrorie Rangers · 2026-06-29
  • Mark Sykes Millwall · 2026-06-29
  • Harry Cornick no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Samy Morsy no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Josh Stokes Reading · 2026-07-09
  • Joe Lumley Sheffield Wed · 2026-07-09
  • Jamie Knight-Lebel Motherwell · 2026-07-30
  • George Earthy West Ham · 2026-05-30
  • Borges Neto Middlesbrough · 2026-05-30
  • Radek Vitek Manchester Utd · 2026-06-29
  • Delano Burgzorg Middlesbrough · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Adam RandellMBristol Citythe Championship3549433293
Lorent TolajFPlymouthLeague One23242916799
Scott TwineMBristol Citythe Championship32304411685
Robert AtkinsonDBristol Citythe Championship1851253197
Robert DickieDBristol Citythe Championship2635341086
Jason KnightMBristol Citythe Championship2684340274
Swanseaprojected 66 pts · band 56–77 · 1.33 scored and 1.23 conceded per game · Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos
squad age (by minutes) 26.0minutes from above 0%from below 21%last season’s minutes retained 81%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 79%, the Scottish Premiership 15%, the Belgian Pro League 5%.

We project 66 points (56–77), against a division average of 64. Last season: 64 points in the Championship, finishing 11th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+3) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 7 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €86.9m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+3.1
attacking end-0.3
ball-winning-0.2
the club’s own last season-0.1
minutes from the Championship or above+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Kounfolo Yeo Moussa Salzburg · 2026-06-30
  • Leo Walta Sirius · 2026-06-30
  • Stephen Welsh Celtic · 2026-06-30
  • Henry Just Elijah Motherwell · 2026-07-21
  • Joseph Opoku Waregem · 2026-07-22
  • Tiago Parente Benfica · 2026-08-02
  • Mitchell Bates Briton Ferry · 2026-05-30
  • Kyrell Wilson Falkirk · 2026-05-30
  • Filip Lissah Falkirk · 2026-05-30
  • Ben Lloyd Newport · 2026-05-30
  • Joel Cotterill Dundee FC · 2026-05-30
  • Florian Bianchini Portsmouth · 2026-05-31

Out since 1 May

  • Ethan Galbraith Stoke · 2026-06-29
  • Joshua Thomas Fleetwood · 2026-06-29
  • Josh Key no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Ricardo Santos Sheffield Wed · 2026-06-29
  • Blair McKenzie Waterford · 2026-07-16
  • Samuel Parker Wycombe · 2026-07-27
  • Mitchell Bates Galway · 2026-07-29
  • Liam Cullen Leicester · 2026-07-29
  • Cameron Congreve Westerlo · 2026-08-01
  • Oliver Cooper Notts Co · 2026-08-02
  • Malick Yalcouye Brighton · 2026-05-30
  • Ishe Samuels-Smith Chelsea · 2026-05-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Zan VipotnikFSwanseathe Championship28774423396
Lawrence VigourouxGSwanseathe Championship4050450092
RonaldFSwanseathe Championship3027454588
Cameron BurgessDSwanseathe Championship4050450084
Henry Just ElijahMMotherwellthe Scottish Premiership2556347795
Benjamin CabangoDSwanseathe Championship3945441078
Sheffield Utdprojected 66 pts · band 55–76 · 1.32 scored and 1.22 conceded per game · Chris Wilder
squad age (by minutes) 26.2minutes from above 2%from below 1%last season’s minutes retained 73%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 97%.

We project 66 points (55–76), against a division average of 64. Last season: 60 points in the Championship, finishing 13th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+1), squad quality (+1), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 32 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 9 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €116.5m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
attacking end+1.3
squad quality+1.0
minutes from the Championship or above+1.0
ball-winning-0.8
the club’s own last season-0.2

In since 1 May

  • Romelle Donovan Brentford · 2026-07-07
  • Matt Doherty Wolves · 2026-07-19
  • Billy Blacker Tranmere · 2026-05-30
  • Jili Buyabu Forest Green · 2026-05-30
  • Louie Marsh Falkirk · 2026-05-30
  • Sam Curtis Chesterfield · 2026-05-30
  • Nils Zatterstrom Genoa · 2026-06-29
  • Christian Nwachukwu Serik Spor · 2026-06-29
  • Ehije Ukaki Atromitos · 2026-06-29
  • Evan Easton Crusaders · 2026-06-29
  • Rhys Norrington-Davies QPR · 2026-06-29
  • Ivo Grbic Karagumruk · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Evan Easton Airdrieonians · 2026-06-29
  • Andre Brooks Norwich · 2026-06-29
  • Tom Davies no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jairo Riedewald no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Danny Ings no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Ben Mee no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Alex Matos Goztepe · 2026-07-01
  • Luke Faxon Boston Utd · 2026-07-02
  • Mikhail Polendakov Ludogorets · 2026-07-14
  • Jili Buyabu Rotherham · 2026-07-27
  • Christian Nwachukwu Sabah Baku · 2026-07-30
  • Fuhr Hjelde Leo Sunderland · 2026-05-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Japhet TangangaDSheffield Utdthe Championship3377381194
Gustavo HamerMSheffield Utdthe Championship25023851297
Sydie PeckMSheffield Utdthe Championship3117385491
Patrick BamfordFSheffield Utdthe Championship18292812189
Sam McCallumDSheffield Utdthe Championship1135261192
Femi SerikiDSheffield Utdthe Championship2489401561
Prestonprojected 65 pts · band 54–75 · 1.29 scored and 1.25 conceded per game · Paul Heckingbottom
squad age (by minutes) 27.9minutes from above 0%from below 9%last season’s minutes retained 79%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 91%, League One 7%.

We project 65 points (54–75), against a division average of 64. Last season: 60 points in the Championship, finishing 14th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-1) points. Of the 30 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 5 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €56.3m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
ball-winning+1.0
minutes from the Championship or above+0.6
attacking end-0.6
the club’s own last season-0.5
squad quality+0.5

In since 1 May

  • Lee Nicholls Huddersfield · 2026-06-30
  • Alfie Devine Tottenham · 2026-07-06
  • Jusef Erabi Genk · 2026-07-12
  • Felipe AFC Fylde · 2026-05-29
  • Kaedyn Kamara Ross County · 2026-05-30
  • Noah Mawene Southend · 2026-05-30
  • Will Keane Reading · 2026-05-30

Out since 1 May

  • James Pradic Fleetwood · 2026-06-29
  • Noah Mawene Fleetwood · 2026-06-29
  • Jamal Lewis no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jack Walton Dundee Utd · 2026-06-29
  • Robbie Brady no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Will Keane no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Michael Smith Mansfield · 2026-07-11
  • Li-Bau Stowell Chorley · 2026-08-01
  • Alfie Devine Tottenham · 2026-05-30
  • Lewis Dobbin Aston Villa · 2026-05-30
  • Milos Lukovic Strasbourg · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Jebbison Bournemouth · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Alfie DevineFPrestonthe Championship2994438699
Benjamin WhitemanMPrestonthe Championship3564412597
Daniel IversenGPrestonthe Championship3068340181
Jordan StoreyDPrestonthe Championship3564432268
Milutin OsmajicFPrestonthe Championship1735288179
Andrew HughesDPrestonthe Championship3125361055
Derbyprojected 64 pts · band 54–75 · 1.28 scored and 1.24 conceded per game · John Eustace
squad age (by minutes) 27.3minutes from above 0%from below 15%last season’s minutes retained 67%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 85%, League One 7%, the 2. Bundesliga 5%.

We project 64 points (54–75), against a division average of 64. Last season: 69 points in the Championship, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+1), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-1) points. Of the 32 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 7 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €62.4m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-1.5
attacking end+1.4
minutes from the Championship or above+0.7
ball-winning-0.5
the club’s own last season+0.5

In since 1 May

  • Bobby Clark Salzburg · 2026-06-30
  • Charlie Taylor Southampton · 2026-07-13
  • Filip Bilbija Paderborn · 2026-07-21
  • Freddie Turley Dunfermline · 2026-05-30
  • Daniel Cox Solihull Moors · 2026-05-30
  • Dajaune Brown Port Vale · 2026-05-30
  • Jake Rooney Boston Utd · 2026-05-30
  • Corey Blackett-Taylor Bolton · 2026-05-30
  • Ryan Nyambe Reading · 2026-05-30
  • Ben Osborn Stockport County · 2026-05-30
  • Kenzo Goudmijn G.A. Eagles · 2026-06-29
  • Andreas Weimann SK Rapid · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Ben Osborn Stockport County · 2026-06-29
  • Callum Elder Lincoln · 2026-06-29
  • Andreas Weimann no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Danny Batth Millwall · 2026-06-29
  • Jake Rooney Boston Utd · 2026-07-21
  • Jaydon Banel Burnley · 2026-05-30
  • David Ozoh Crystal Palace · 2026-05-30
  • Dion Sanderson Birmingham · 2026-05-30
  • Ben Brereton Diaz Southampton · 2026-05-30
  • Owen Beck Liverpool · 2026-05-31
  • Bobby Clark Salzburg · 2026-06-29
  • Sammie Szmodics Ipswich · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Joe WardDDerbythe Championship2757401887
Matt ClarkeDDerbythe Championship3775423480
Carlton MorrisFDerbythe Championship18642811095
Jacob Widell ZetterstromGDerbythe Championship2700300083
Filip BilbijaMPaderbornthe 2. Bundesliga18243115387
Patrick AgyemangFDerbythe Championship26343510264
Watfordprojected 64 pts · band 53–74 · 1.27 scored and 1.25 conceded per game
squad age (by minutes) 24.9minutes from above 11%from below 3%last season’s minutes retained 73%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 86%, Serie A 7%, the Bundesliga 4%.

We project 64 points (53–74), against a division average of 64. Last season: 57 points in the Championship, finishing 16th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+1), ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-1) points. Of the 31 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 13 of the 34 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €85.9m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-1.3
minutes from the Championship or above+0.9
ball-winning+0.9
the club’s own last season-0.5
attacking end+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Haktab Traore Omar Udinese · 2026-07-15
  • Iker Bravo Udinese · 2026-07-23
  • Luca Kjerrumgaard Udinese · 2026-07-23
  • Federico Ravaglia Bologna · 2026-07-30
  • Jordan Zemura Udinese · 2026-08-01
  • Tobi Adeyemo Crawley · 2026-05-30
  • Travis Akomeah Gillingham · 2026-05-30
  • James Clarridge Braintree · 2026-05-30
  • Zavier Massiah-Edwards Braintree · 2026-06-29
  • Michael Adu Poku Wealdstone · 2026-06-29
  • Jorge Hurtado Millonarios · 2026-06-29
  • Myles Roberts Walsall · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Tobi Akinyimika no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Pierre Dwomoh no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jorge Hurtado Deportes Tolima · 2026-06-30
  • Nathan Baxter Leyton Orient · 2026-07-01
  • Giorgi Chakvetadze Udinese · 2026-07-04
  • Jonathan Lawson Jaro · 2026-07-11
  • Vivaldo Semedo Alverca · 2026-07-15
  • Tom Dele-Bashiru Aris · 2026-07-20
  • Tom Ince Tranmere · 2026-07-25
  • Stephen Mfuni Manchester City · 2026-06-29
  • James Abankwah Udinese · 2026-06-29
  • Luca Kjerrumgaard Odense · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Imran LouzaMWatfordthe Championship3432407999
Jeremy NgakiaDWatfordthe Championship2431323486
Nestory IrankundaFWatfordthe Championship1924394492
Matthew PollockDWatfordthe Championship2812371168
Federico RavagliaGBolognaSerie A1469370084
Edo KayembeMWatfordthe Championship2396374173
West Bromprojected 63 pts · band 52–73 · 1.27 scored and 1.29 conceded per game
squad age (by minutes) 25.9minutes from above 0%from below 12%last season’s minutes retained 72%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 88%, Ligue 2 7%, the Scottish Premiership 4%.

We project 63 points (52–73), against a division average of 64. Last season: 53 points in the Championship, finishing 19th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+2) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-2), the club’s own last season (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 14 are still on the list. 14 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €58.1m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+2.2
attacking end-2.0
the club’s own last season-1.0
minutes from the Championship or above+0.4
ball-winning-0.2

In since 1 May

  • Jimmy-Jay Morgan Chelsea · 2026-06-30
  • Barney Stewart Falkirk · 2026-06-30
  • Matt Ingram Oxford Utd · 2026-06-30
  • Conor Townsend Ipswich · 2026-07-23
  • Nolan Galves Rodez · 2026-07-27
  • Cole Deeming Cheltenham · 2026-05-30
  • Akeel Higgins Exeter · 2026-05-30
  • Joe Wildsmith Middlesbrough · 2026-05-30

Out since 1 May

  • Jed Wallace Bristol City · 2026-06-01
  • Daryl Dike Orlando City · 2026-06-29
  • Joshua Griffiths Stoke · 2026-06-29
  • Josh Maja Le Havre · 2026-06-29
  • Joe Wildsmith no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Akeel Higgins Wigan · 2026-07-01
  • Eseosa Sule St. Mirren · 2026-07-12
  • Karlan Grant Charlton · 2026-07-17
  • Hindolo Mustapha Crystal Palace U21 · 2026-05-02
  • Daniel Imray Crystal Palace · 2026-05-30
  • Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba Aston Villa · 2026-06-29
  • Charlie Taylor Southampton · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Nathaniel PhillipsDWest Bromthe Championship3373413093
Mikey JohnstonFWest Bromthe Championship2295342996
Alex MowattMWest Bromthe Championship2591411492
Isaac PriceMWest Bromthe Championship3481448275
George CampbellDWest Bromthe Championship3000394272
Jayson MolumbyMWest Bromthe Championship2901382265
Burnleyprojected 63 pts · band 52–73 · 1.22 scored and 1.25 conceded per game · Nicky Hayen
squad age (by minutes) 27.1minutes from above 89%from below 8%last season’s minutes retained 51%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Premier League 80%, the Eredivisie 8%, the Bundesliga 5%, the Championship 3%.

We project 63 points (52–73), against a division average of 64. Last season: 22 points in the Premier League, finishing 19th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+3), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-3), the club’s own last season (-2) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 16 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €227.1m across 33 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
ball-winning+3.3
squad quality-2.9
the club’s own last season-2.3
minutes from the Championship or above+1.1
attacking end+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Florentino Benfica · 2026-06-30
  • Lluc Castell Espanyol · 2026-07-11
  • Ugo Raghouber Lille · 2026-07-27
  • Tommy McDermott Shrewsbury · 2026-05-12
  • Tom Tweedy Darlington · 2026-05-30
  • Jaydon Banel Derby · 2026-05-30
  • Owen Dodgson Stockport County · 2026-05-30
  • Aaron Ramsey Leicester · 2026-05-30
  • Michael Obafemi Blackpool · 2026-05-30
  • Joe Bauress Accrington · 2026-05-31
  • Luca Koleosho Paris FC · 2026-06-29
  • Oluwaseun Adewumi Cercle Brugge KSV · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Owen Dodgson Stockport County · 2026-06-29
  • Maxime Esteve RB Leipzig · 2026-06-29
  • Vaclav Hladky no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Martin Dubravka Tottenham · 2026-06-29
  • Jaidon Anthony Brentford · 2026-07-05
  • Quilindschy Hartman Espanyol · 2026-07-06
  • Loum Tchaouna Coventry · 2026-07-09
  • Lesley Ugochukwu Galatasaray · 2026-07-14
  • Oluwaseun Adewumi Hertha Berlin · 2026-07-23
  • Jack McEvilly Tranmere · 2026-07-25
  • Charlie Veevers Tranmere · 2026-07-25
  • Joe Ashton Waterford · 2026-07-25

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Zian FlemmingFBurnleythe Premier League1690299073
Kyle WalkerDBurnleythe Premier League2827340236
Bashir HumphreysDBurnleythe Premier League1486240070
Hjalmar EkdalDBurnleythe Premier League1268290053
Marcus EdwardsFBurnleythe Premier League1010311358
Hannibal MejbriMBurnleythe Premier League1250271337
Birminghamprojected 63 pts · band 52–73 · 1.26 scored and 1.27 conceded per game · Chris Davies
squad age (by minutes) 26.9minutes from above 11%from below 1%last season’s minutes retained 79%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 88%, La Liga 6%, the Bundesliga 5%.

We project 63 points (52–73), against a division average of 64. Last season: 64 points in the Championship, finishing 10th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-1), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 32 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 11 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €108.2m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-1.1
minutes from the Championship or above+1.0
ball-winning-0.6
attacking end-0.2
the club’s own last season+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Elmer Solis Romero Jhon Girona · 2026-06-30
  • Dael Fry Middlesbrough · 2026-07-02
  • Luis Vazquez Anderlecht · 2026-07-27
  • Kristoffer Lund Palermo · 2026-07-29
  • Daniel Isichei Tamworth · 2026-05-30
  • OShea Ellis Oxford City · 2026-05-30
  • Menzi Mazwi Queen of South · 2026-05-30
  • Marc Leonard Hearts · 2026-05-30
  • Dion Sanderson Derby · 2026-05-30
  • Scott Wright Dundee FC · 2026-05-30
  • Taylor Gardner-Hickman Blackburn · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Byron Pendleton Shrewsbury · 2026-06-29
  • Jonathan Panzo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Kai Wagner Philadelphia Union · 2026-07-15
  • Kyogo Furuhashi Los Angeles Galaxy · 2026-07-19
  • Ibrahim Osman Brighton · 2026-05-30
  • Thomas Doyle Wolves · 2026-05-30
  • Elmer Solis Romero Jhon Girona · 2026-06-29
  • James Beadle Brighton · 2027-05-31

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Seung-Ho PaikFBirminghamthe Championship3301424195
Christoph KlarerDBirminghamthe Championship3780423089
Dael FryDMiddlesbroughthe Championship1826303098
Tomoki IwataMBirminghamthe Championship3727443175
Patrick RobertsMBirminghamthe Championship2212404486
Demarai GrayFBirminghamthe Championship2294375581
Lincolnprojected 60 pts · band 50–71 · 1.22 scored and 1.31 conceded per game
squad age (by minutes) 27.8minutes from above 0%from below 95%last season’s minutes retained 91%

Last season those minutes were played in: League One 92%, the Championship 5%, League Two 4%.

We project 60 points (50–71), against a division average of 64. Last season: 103 points in League One, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+3) points. What pulls them down: minutes from the Championship or above (-4), ball-winning (-2), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 5 of the 22 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €9.9m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
minutes from the Championship or above-4.2
the club’s own last season+3.2
ball-winning-1.6
squad quality-0.8
attacking end+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Callum Elder Derby · 2026-06-30
  • Andrei Coubis U. Cluj · 2026-07-24
  • Joe Gauci Aston Villa · 2026-07-27
  • Zane Okoro Coleraine · 2026-05-30
  • MJ Kamara Glentoran · 2026-05-30
  • Oisin Gallagher Boston Utd · 2026-05-30
  • Joshua McKiernan John Burton · 2026-05-30
  • Zach Jeacock Northampton · 2027-05-31

Out since 1 May

  • MJ Kamara Hearts · 2026-06-29
  • Zach Jeacock Northampton · 2026-06-30
  • Erik Ring Kilmarnock · 2026-07-02
  • Zane Okoro Tranmere · 2026-07-20
  • Oisin Gallagher Barnet · 2026-07-20
  • Joshua McKiernan John Bromley · 2026-07-25
  • Alfie Lloyd QPR · 2026-05-30
  • Kamil Conteh Bristol Rovers · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Adam ReachDLincolnLeague One26123144100
Tendayi DarikwaDLincolnLeague One3922446395
Conor McGrandlesMLincolnLeague One3875441691
Sonny BradleyDLincolnLeague One3900443189
Reeco Hackett-FairchildMLincolnLeague One28064111889
Callum ElderDDerbythe Championship2114301582
QPRprojected 59 pts · band 49–70 · 1.18 scored and 1.30 conceded per game · Julien Stephan
squad age (by minutes) 24.4minutes from above 0%from below 18%last season’s minutes retained 69%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 82%, the Scottish Premiership 8%, the Eredivisie 7%.

We project 59 points (49–70), against a division average of 64. Last season: 58 points in the Championship, finishing 15th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), the club’s own last season (-1), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 12 of the 34 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €63.3m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-3.9
the club’s own last season-0.6
ball-winning-0.6
minutes from the Championship or above+0.5
attacking end+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Boy Kemper NAC Breda · 2026-06-30
  • Calum Ward Motherwell · 2026-07-08
  • Pierce Charles Manchester City · 2026-07-09
  • Tariq Lamptey Fiorentina · 2026-07-20
  • Giovanni Ikoroha QPR · 2026-07-29
  • Glen Kamara Rennes · 2026-08-02
  • Timothy Akindileni Morecambe · 2026-05-30
  • Emmerson Sutton Harrogate · 2026-05-30
  • Murphy Cooper Sheffield Wed · 2026-05-30
  • Rohan Vaughan Dartford · 2026-05-30
  • Alfie Lloyd Lincoln · 2026-05-30
  • Liam Morrison Aberdeen · 2026-05-30

Out since 1 May

  • Noah McCann Central Coast Mariners · 2026-06-29
  • Sam Field Norwich · 2026-06-29
  • Isaac Hayden Leyton Orient · 2026-06-29
  • Ben Hamer no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Steve Cook Wycombe · 2026-07-01
  • Joe Walsh Wigan · 2026-07-08
  • Murphy Cooper Plymouth · 2026-07-12
  • Zan Celar Basel · 2026-07-15
  • Cian Dillon Dundalk · 2026-07-19
  • Paul Nardi Auxerre · 2026-07-20
  • Elijah Dixon-Bonner no club recorded · 2026-07-27
  • Daniel Bennie Dundee Utd · 2026-07-28

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Nicolas MadsenMQPRthe Championship2852373695
Jimmy DunneDQPRthe Championship3392383367
Calum WardGMotherwellthe Scottish Premiership3240360084
Harvey ValeMQPRthe Championship2153364576
Paul SmythMQPRthe Championship1863416280
Pierce CharlesGSheffield Wedthe Championship1627180185
Stokeprojected 59 pts · band 49–70 · 1.18 scored and 1.31 conceded per game · Mark Robins
squad age (by minutes) 25.8minutes from above 0%from below 11%last season’s minutes retained 69%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 89%, the Scottish Premiership 7%, the Eredivisie 3%.

We project 59 points (49–70), against a division average of 64. Last season: 55 points in the Championship, finishing 17th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), attacking end (-1), the club’s own last season (-1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 9 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €102.2m across 32 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-4.0
attacking end-1.3
ball-winning+1.0
the club’s own last season-0.7
minutes from the Championship or above+0.6

In since 1 May

  • Djibril Soumare Braga · 2026-06-30
  • Milan Smit G.A. Eagles · 2026-06-30
  • Ethan Galbraith Swansea · 2026-06-30
  • Joshua Griffiths West Brom · 2026-06-30
  • Svante Ingelsson Sheffield Wed · 2026-06-30
  • Luke Graham Dundee FC · 2026-07-02
  • Freddie Anderson Barrow · 2026-05-30
  • Nathan Lowe Wycombe · 2026-05-30
  • Favour Fawunmi Leyton Orient · 2026-05-30
  • Darius Lipsiuc Solihull Moors · 2026-05-30
  • Emre Tezgel Crewe · 2026-05-30
  • Nikola Jojic Radomlje · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Darius Lipsiuc Notts Co · 2026-06-29
  • Ben Wilmot no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Lewis Baker Bursaspor · 2026-06-29
  • Steven N'Zonzi Dunkerque · 2026-06-29
  • Tommy Simkin Doncaster · 2026-06-30
  • Nikola Jojic no club recorded · 2026-07-05
  • Nathan Lowe Hibernian · 2026-07-13
  • Emre Tezgel Wycombe · 2026-07-22
  • Favour Fawunmi Oldham · 2026-07-29
  • Ashley Phillips Tottenham · 2026-05-30
  • Jesuran Rak-Sakyi Crystal Palace · 2026-05-30
  • Gavin Bazunu Southampton · 2026-05-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Sorba ThomasMStokethe Championship374843101192
Viktor JohanssonGStokethe Championship2160240196
Ethan GalbraithMSwanseathe Championship3108393183
Luke GrahamDDundee FCthe Scottish Premiership3039362180
Junior TchamadeuDStokethe Championship1975251269
Million ManhoefMStokethe Championship2812437456
Blackburnprojected 56 pts · band 45–66 · 1.10 scored and 1.35 conceded per game · Tony Mowbray
squad age (by minutes) 26.4minutes from above 0%from below 7%last season’s minutes retained 81%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 93%, League One 7%.

We project 56 points (45–66), against a division average of 64. Last season: 52 points in the Championship, finishing 22nd. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-6), the club’s own last season (-1), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 33 men who played for them last season, 24 are still on the list. 8 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 27. Squad value on our player feed: €41.6m across 30 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-6.5
the club’s own last season-1.4
attacking end-1.0
minutes from the Championship or above+0.6
ball-winning+0.2

In since 1 May

  • Moussa Baradji Yverdon · 2026-06-30
  • Jayden Fevrier Stockport County · 2026-07-27
  • Brandon Powell Barrow · 2026-05-30
  • Harrison Wood Warrington Rylands · 2026-05-30
  • Jack Barrett Tranmere · 2026-05-30
  • James Edmondson Macclesfield · 2026-06-29
  • Leo Duru Birmingham · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Ryan Hedges no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Sondre Tronstad no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Nathan Redmond no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Aodhan Doherty Falkirk · 2026-07-24
  • Nicholas Michalski Crawley · 2026-07-31
  • Moussa Baradji Yverdon · 2026-05-30
  • Eiran Cashin Brighton · 2026-05-30
  • Taylor Gardner-Hickman Birmingham · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Sean McLoughlinDBlackburnthe Championship3821440081
Todd CantwellMBlackburnthe Championship2070285394
Ryan AlebiosuDBlackburnthe Championship3106381470
Ryoya MorishitaMBlackburnthe Championship2590374969
Lewis MillerDBlackburnthe Championship2065292278
Yuki OhashiFBlackburnthe Championship33364510146
Portsmouthprojected 55 pts · band 44–65 · 1.10 scored and 1.37 conceded per game · John Mousinho
squad age (by minutes) 27.6minutes from above 0%from below 15%last season’s minutes retained 73%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 85%, the Eredivisie 8%, League One 7%.

We project 55 points (44–65), against a division average of 64. Last season: 55 points in the Championship, finishing 18th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-5), attacking end (-2), the club’s own last season (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 14 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €37.1m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-5.5
attacking end-1.6
the club’s own last season-1.2
ball-winning-1.2
minutes from the Championship or above+0.6

In since 1 May

  • Max Hammond Portsmouth · 2026-06-30
  • Ben Phillipson Portsmouth · 2026-06-30
  • Brandon Downey Crusaders · 2026-06-30
  • Odin Bailey Stockport County · 2026-06-30
  • Eoin Kenny Dundalk · 2026-07-05
  • Robert Shein Rocco Fredrikstad · 2026-07-12
  • Daniel Bielica NAC Breda · 2026-07-23
  • Luke Brooke-Smith Wellington Phoenix · 2026-07-27
  • Jacob Farrell WS Wanderers · 2026-05-30
  • Toby Steward St Johnstone · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Reuben Swann no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Harry Clout no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jordan Archer no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Toby Steward St Johnstone · 2026-07-06
  • Andre Dozzell DC United · 2026-07-11
  • Makenzie Kirk Barnsley · 2026-07-15
  • Jordan Williams Blackpool · 2026-07-28
  • Florian Bianchini Swansea · 2026-05-30
  • Jacob Brown Luton · 2026-05-30
  • Millenic Alli Luton · 2026-06-29
  • Ajibola Alese Sunderland · 2026-06-29
  • Conor Chaplin Ipswich · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Marlon PackMPortsmouththe Championship2084352096
Terry DevlinDPortsmouththe Championship2473415182
Daniel BielicaGNAC Bredathe Eredivisie2970340078
Zak SwansonDPortsmouththe Championship2137362180
Ebou AdamsMDerbythe Championship1419241087
Nicolas SchmidGPortsmouththe Championship2906330054
Cardiffprojected 53 pts · band 43–64 · 1.10 scored and 1.39 conceded per game · Brian Barry-Murphy
squad age (by minutes) 24.8minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 88%

Last season those minutes were played in: League One 100%.

We project 53 points (43–64), against a division average of 64. Last season: 91 points in League One, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+2) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-5), minutes from the Championship or above (-5), squad quality (-2) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 8 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €28.0m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
ball-winning-4.9
minutes from the Championship or above-4.5
squad quality-2.2
the club’s own last season+1.7
attacking end-0.1

In since 1 May

  • Nathan Trott FC Copenhagen · 2026-06-30
  • Noah Anyadike Cardiff · 2026-07-30
  • Will Spiers Merthyr Town · 2026-05-30
  • Tanatswa Nyakuhwa Newport · 2026-05-30
  • Kion Etete St. Mirren · 2026-05-30
  • Troy Perrett Yeovil · 2026-06-29
  • Dakarai Mafico Yeovil · 2026-06-29
  • Luey Giles Eastleigh · 2026-06-29
  • Michael Reindorf Tamworth · 2026-06-29
  • Luke Pearce Mariehamn · 2026-06-29
  • Roko Simic Karlsruher SC · 2026-06-29
  • Jesper Daland Dusseldorf · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Luke Pearce Sligo Rovers · 2026-06-29
  • Ryan Wintle MK Dons · 2026-07-11
  • Trey George Sligo Rovers · 2026-07-29
  • Jesper Daland Viking · 2026-08-03
  • Omari Kellyman Chelsea · 2026-05-30
  • Calum Scanlon Liverpool · 2026-05-30
  • Nathan Trott FC Copenhagen · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Perry NgDCardiffLeague One26403764100
Joel BaganDCardiffLeague One3549441493
Dylan LawlorDCardiffLeague One2271372298
William FishDCardiffLeague One2559441092
Rubin ColwillMCardiffLeague One2357308590
Yousef SalechFCardiffLeague One23343313487
Boltonprojected 52 pts · band 41–62 · 1.05 scored and 1.43 conceded per game · Steven Schumacher
squad age (by minutes) 25.8minutes from above 0%from below 96%last season’s minutes retained 53%

Last season those minutes were played in: League One 69%, the Scottish Premiership 14%, the Primeira Liga 8%, Ligue 2 5%.

We project 52 points (41–62), against a division average of 64. Last season: 75 points in League One, finishing 5th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), minutes from the Championship or above (-4), attacking end (-2) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 12 are still on the list. 5 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €24.2m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-4.0
minutes from the Championship or above-3.8
attacking end-2.4
ball-winning-1.6
the club’s own last season+0.1

In since 1 May

  • David Watson Kilmarnock · 2026-06-30
  • Akin Famewo Hull · 2026-06-30
  • Ben Davies Rangers · 2026-06-30
  • Luca Stephenson Liverpool · 2026-07-01
  • Kyliane Dong Augsburg · 2026-07-06
  • Gaizka Larrazabal Casa Pia · 2026-07-22
  • David Abimbola Accrington · 2026-05-30
  • Sam Inwood Aldershot · 2026-05-30
  • Carlos Mendes Exeter · 2026-05-30
  • Joel Randall Blackpool · 2026-05-30
  • Szabolcs Schon Gyor · 2026-06-29
  • Luke Hutchinson Altrincham · 2026-12-31

Out since 1 May

  • Sonny Sharples-Ahmed Hednesford · 2026-06-29
  • Carlos Mendes no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • George Johnston Luton · 2026-06-29
  • Szabolcs Schon Gyor · 2026-06-29
  • Jordi Osei-Tutu no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Kyle Dempsey Port Vale · 2026-06-29
  • Richard Taylor Bromley · 2026-07-26
  • Sam Inwood Swindon · 2026-08-02
  • Amario Cozier-Duberry Brighton · 2026-05-30
  • Robert Apter Charlton · 2026-05-30
  • Marcus Forss Middlesbrough · 2026-05-30
  • Corey Blackett-Taylor Derby · 2026-05-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Josh SheehanMBoltonLeague One2640383498
Eoin ToalDBoltonLeague One3145403287
Chris Forino-JosephDBoltonLeague One2284411088
Gaizka LarrazabalMCasa Piathe Primeira Liga2854335470
Max ConwayDBoltonLeague One3111420274
Sam DalbyFBoltonLeague One23134110477
Charltonprojected 48 pts · band 38–59 · 0.98 scored and 1.46 conceded per game · Nathan Jones
squad age (by minutes) 26.5minutes from above 0%from below 25%last season’s minutes retained 77%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Championship 75%, League One 9%, League Two 7%, the Eredivisie 6%.

We project 48 points (38–59), against a division average of 64. Last season: 53 points in the Championship, finishing 20th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-9), attacking end (-3), ball-winning (-2) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 5 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 26. Squad value on our player feed: €31.8m across 31 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-8.7
attacking end-3.2
ball-winning-2.0
the club’s own last season-1.5
minutes from the Championship or above+0.0

In since 1 May

  • Billy Koumetio Dundee FC · 2026-06-30
  • Ivan Mesik Heracles · 2026-06-30
  • Karlan Grant West Brom · 2026-07-18
  • Dan McNamara Millwall · 2026-07-22
  • Millenic Alli Luton · 2026-07-25
  • Ollie Hobden Chatham · 2026-05-30
  • Josh Laqeretabua Bath · 2026-05-30
  • Micah Mbick Colchester · 2026-05-30
  • Toby Bower Farnborough · 2026-05-30
  • Nathan Asiimwe AFC Wimbledon · 2026-05-30
  • Patrick Casey Dorking · 2026-05-30
  • Karoy Anderson Blackpool · 2026-05-30

Out since 1 May

  • Lennon Maclorg Gillingham · 2026-06-29
  • Kaheim Dixon Novi Pazar · 2026-06-29
  • Terry Taylor Stevenage · 2026-06-29
  • Macaulay Gillesphey Bradford City · 2026-06-29
  • Luke Berry no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Gassan Ahadme Cambridge Utd · 2026-06-30
  • Zach Mitchell St Johnstone · 2026-07-05
  • Ty Ewens-Findlay Crawley · 2026-07-08
  • Karoy Anderson Blackpool · 2026-07-19
  • Alex Mitchell Plymouth · 2026-07-21
  • Luke Chambers Liverpool · 2026-05-30
  • Jayden Fevrier Stockport County · 2026-05-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Lloyd JonesDCharltonthe Championship3592421193
Thomas KaminskiGCharltonthe Championship2970370071
Sonny CareyMCharltonthe Championship3193427167
Amari'i BellDCharltonthe Championship2522330069
Daniel KanuFWalsallLeague Two32314015288
Conor CoventryMCharltonthe Championship2573410159
What this does not know. Squads are as our club feed returned them on 2026-08-13, and the window is still open — a signing made after that is missing, and the model would rate him if he were there. 219 of the 731 registered players have no measured season in our data at all: academy graduates and men signed from divisions we do not cover. They are simply left out of their club’s number rather than guessed at — which is its own kind of blindness, and the count is printed on every club card. We tried making the count of them an input: it improved the backtest and we dropped it anyway, because in the backtest a squad is the men who played and today it is the men a club has registered, so clubs with large academies were being marked down for paperwork. Ratings come from our match-level player records, which start to thin out below the fourth tier. The model has no transfer fees, no injuries, no coaches, no budgets and no pre-season, and it treats last season’s minutes as the guide to this season’s — so a club that has just changed manager and bought a first eleven is exactly where it will be most wrong. It is a projection of a season, not a guide to a match, and it is not a betting product.

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