The Eredivisie 2026/27: a projection built from the players, club by club

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GoalSoon · built 05 September 2026 · every figure is our own calculation

18 clubs, 510 players currently registered with them, and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and published: ±9 points.

How to read the number

78 points means a full 34-game season, not a form guess. The division averages 47.
The band (69–87 for the club at the top) is the measured error, not a decoration. Tested on 90 past club-seasons, the real total landed inside a band this wide 56 times in 100.
The order is not a predicted table. Take the middle club on this page: 6 of the 17 projections sit inside its error band, which is to say the model cannot tell those clubs apart. That is why the table is ordered but not numbered.
Nothing here is a match prediction and nothing here is a betting product. It is one number per club for one season, and the ways it can be wrong are listed at the bottom.

On this page: how it works · how wrong it is · the 17 clubs · where it disagrees with last season · where the minutes were played · club by club

The idea

A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every player registered with the 18 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.

The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on 8,628 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale. The zero has to sit somewhere and we put it on League One, so every number below reads as “this much above or below a League One season”:

Division	Level, in rating z	Moves seen
the Premier League	+1.46	1015
La Liga	+1.18	1247
the Bundesliga	+1.07	918
Serie A	+1.03	1524
Ligue 1	+0.83	1139
the Championship	+0.61	1189
the Belgian Pro League	+0.44	628
the Eredivisie	+0.36	731
the Segunda	+0.35	1288
the Primeira Liga	+0.35	652
the 2. Bundesliga	+0.26	590
Serie B	+0.23	1120
the Scottish Premiership	+0.02	408
Ligue 2	+0.00	662
League One	+0.00	1560
the 3. Liga	-0.18	270
the HNL	-0.21	279
League Two	-0.27	1267
the Challenger Pro League	-0.27	228
the Eerste Divisie	-0.36	515

The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in (+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not charged to the divisions.

What goes into a club’s number

Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:

Input	Weight	What it is
the club’s own last season	+0.330	What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one.
attacking end	+0.275	The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in.
squad quality	+0.240	Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale.
minutes from the Championship or above	+0.177	How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division rated above League One — the Championship, the Premier League or a foreign division at that level. The threshold is fixed at League One for every page, so the input means the same thing wherever it is used. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly.
ball-winning	-0.056	Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale.

Fitted on 90 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.

How wrong it is

Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is scored on data it was fitted on:

Approach	Error, pts/game	Over 34 games
Give every club the division average	0.421	±14.3
Repeat last season, adjusted for level	0.332	±11.3
This model, from the players	0.255	±8.7

So it is worth about 6 points of accuracy over knowing nothing, and about 3 points over assuming last season repeats. That is a real edge and a small one — on 90 club-seasons it holds against the division average at p < 0.001. One thing that number does not say on its own: this method was carried over from three English divisions and tested on thirteen more before any of them got a page. Seven failed and have none — almost all of them second tiers, where a squad explains far less of a season. This division is one that passed, so read the figure as a division that survived a selection, not as a single test. The whole projected range across the division is 50 points and the error on any one club is ±9, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered, and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 18 clubs 1 to 18 in August is not measuring their own error.

The same model run on goals rather than points gives 0.266 of a goal per game of error on goals scored against 0.442 for the division average, and 0.254 against 0.311 on goals conceded. So the attacking half reads off a squad list and the defensive half barely does — a defence is harder to see in a list of players than an attack.

1 clubs get no projection. Telstar — fewer than eight of their registered players have a measured season in our data, and a projection built on that few would be a guess wearing a number. They are left out rather than filled in.

The 17 clubs

Club	Projected pts	Band	Scored/game	Conceded/game	Squad	No data	Age	Mins from above	Mins from below	Last season pts	Where
PSV	78	69–87	2.58	0.92	27	3	24.6	0%	22%	84	the Eredivisie
Feyenoord	69	60–77	2.19	1.10	39	12	24.4	11%	7%	65	the Eredivisie
Nijmegen	60	51–69	1.98	1.26	32	12	26.4	1%	14%	59	the Eredivisie
Twente	58	50–67	1.87	1.32	30	7	26.0	0%	5%	58	the Eredivisie
Ajax	56	47–65	1.86	1.41	38	4	23.7	9%	28%	56	the Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar	54	46–63	1.77	1.46	31	2	23.3	0%	17%	52	the Eredivisie
Heerenveen	51	43–60	1.63	1.50	26	9	24.9	0%	2%	51	the Eredivisie
Groningen	45	36–54	1.44	1.55	32	15	23.7	0%	5%	48	the Eredivisie
Den Haag	44	35–52	1.49	1.57	26	10	23.7	0%	94%	89	the Eerste Divisie
Utrecht	43	34–51	1.42	1.57	33	8	24.4	0%	35%	53	the Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam	41	33–50	1.32	1.64	25	7	24.8	2%	8%	43	the Eredivisie
G.A. Eagles	38	29–46	1.22	1.80	27	8	25.3	0%	18%	38	the Eredivisie
Zwolle	34	26–43	1.14	1.76	27	14	26.5	0%	4%	37	the Eredivisie
Sittard	33	24–42	1.09	1.71	23	8	26.9	2%	6%	39	the Eredivisie
Excelsior	33	24–41	1.02	1.81	27	12	23.6	0%	34%	38	the Eredivisie
Cambuur	32	23–41	1.08	1.75	26	11	22.8	0%	100%	78	the Eerste Divisie
Willem II	28	20–37	0.93	1.90	23	7	24.7	0%	97%	68	the Eerste Divisie

▲ upper group ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection ± half the measured error, not by predicted position. Age is the squad’s average age weighted by the minutes each man played last season, so it describes the side that actually plays rather than the registration list. Mins from above and from below are the shares of last season’s measured minutes played in a division rated higher or lower than this one; the rest were played at this level or in a division we cannot place.

Where it disagrees with last season

The plainest rival to this model is “whatever the club did last season, corrected for the division it did it in” — the second row of the error table above. Here is that number next to ours, club by club. Where the two agree, the squad has not really changed. Where they part, the summer did something the table cannot see:

Club	Last season	Repeat it, level-adjusted	This model	Difference
Cambuur	78 pts, the Eerste Divisie, 2nd	59	32	-27
Den Haag	89 pts, the Eerste Divisie, 1st	69	44	-25
Willem II	68 pts, the Eerste Divisie, 3rd	50	28	-22
Utrecht	53 pts, the Eredivisie, 6th	53	43	-10
Sittard	39 pts, the Eredivisie, 11th	39	33	-6
PSV	84 pts, the Eredivisie, 1st	84	78	-6
Excelsior	38 pts, the Eredivisie, 13th	38	33	-5
Feyenoord	65 pts, the Eredivisie, 2nd	65	69	+4
Groningen	48 pts, the Eredivisie, 9th	48	45	-3
Zwolle	37 pts, the Eredivisie, 15th	37	34	-3
AZ Alkmaar	52 pts, the Eredivisie, 7th	52	54	+2
Sparta Rotterdam	43 pts, the Eredivisie, 10th	43	41	-2
Nijmegen	59 pts, the Eredivisie, 3rd	59	60	+1
G.A. Eagles	38 pts, the Eredivisie, 12th	38	38	-0
Twente	58 pts, the Eredivisie, 4th	58	58	+0
Heerenveen	51 pts, the Eredivisie, 8th	51	51	+0
Ajax	56 pts, the Eredivisie, 5th	56	56	-0

Sorted by the size of the disagreement. The level adjustment is why a club promoted from League One does not simply keep its 25/26 points total: a point won a division lower is worth less here, and the size of that discount is the measured one from the transfers table above, not a guess.

Where the minutes were played

Every club number on this page is built out of last season’s minutes, so it is worth seeing where those minutes come from. Across the division, the 510 registered players carry 6,122 full games of measured playing time from 2025/26, split like this:

Division those minutes were played in	Minutes	Share	Level, in rating z
the Eredivisie	387,431	70.3%	+0.36
the Eerste Divisie	139,309	25.3%	-0.36
the Belgian Pro League	3,372	0.6%	+0.44
Ligue 1	3,327	0.6%	+0.83
the Segunda	3,166	0.6%	+0.35
the 2. Bundesliga	2,970	0.5%	+0.26
La Liga	2,610	0.5%	+1.18
Ligue 2	2,132	0.4%	+0.00
the Challenger Pro League	2,059	0.4%	-0.27
the 3. Liga	1,949	0.4%	-0.18
the Primeira Liga	1,352	0.2%	+0.35

Only divisions we hold match-level player data for appear here; minutes played outside them are in the “no measured season” count instead, which is 149 of the 510 registered players. Per-club splits are on each club card below.

Club by club

PSVprojected 78 pts · band 69–87 · 2.58 scored and 0.92 conceded per game · Peter Bosz

squad age (by minutes) 24.6minutes from above 0%from below 22%last season’s minutes retained 88%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 78%, the Eerste Divisie 22%.

We project 78 points (69–87), against a division average of 47. Last season: 84 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+15), attacking end (+9), squad quality (+6) points. Of the 30 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 3 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €294.3m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
the club’s own last season	+14.7
attacking end	+9.4
squad quality	+6.4
minutes from the Championship or above	+0.6
ball-winning	+0.2

In since 1 May

Sven Mijnans AZ Alkmaar · 2026-06-30
Matej Kovar Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-06-30
Robin van Duiven Lommel SK · 2026-06-29
Jesper Uneken Waalwijk · 2026-06-29
Isaac Babadi Antwerp · 2026-06-29
Adamo Nagalo Konyaspor · 2026-06-29
Joel Drommel Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-29
Niek Schiks Waalwijk · 2027-06-30
Tygo Land Groningen · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

Robin van Duiven Valladolid · 2026-06-29
Nicolas Verkooijen Darmstadt · 2026-06-29
Ismael Saibari Bayern Munich · 2026-06-29
Myron Boadu no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Niek Schiks Waalwijk · 2026-06-30
Jesper Uneken Sirius · 2026-07-06
Anass Salah-Eddine AS Roma · 2026-06-29
Matej Kovar Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Joey Veerman	M	PSV	the Eredivisie	2370	31	8	14	100
Joel Drommel	G	Sparta Rotterdam	the Eredivisie	3060	34	0	0	90
Ivan Perisic	M	PSV	the Eredivisie	2218	31	7	12	96
Sven Mijnans	M	AZ Alkmaar	the Eredivisie	2350	30	11	6	93
Jerdy Schouten	M	PSV	the Eredivisie	2381	28	1	2	90
Junior Mauro	D	PSV	the Eredivisie	2086	26	1	9	94

Feyenoordprojected 69 pts · band 60–77 · 2.19 scored and 1.10 conceded per game · Giovanni van Bronckhorst

squad age (by minutes) 24.4minutes from above 11%from below 7%last season’s minutes retained 84%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 75%, the Segunda 7%, the 2. Bundesliga 7%, the Belgian Pro League 7%.

We project 69 points (60–77), against a division average of 47. Last season: 65 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+9), the club’s own last season (+6), attacking end (+6) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 21 are still on the list. 12 of the 39 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 27. Squad value on our player feed: €249.2m across 32 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
squad quality	+8.5
the club’s own last season	+5.7
attacking end	+5.7
minutes from the Championship or above	+2.6
ball-winning	-1.0

In since 1 May

Nacho Westerlo · 2026-06-30
Mika Marmol Las Palmas · 2026-06-30
Charles Vanhoutte Nice · 2026-06-30
Tjark Ernst Hertha Berlin · 2026-07-15
Seung-gyun Bae Dordrecht · 2026-06-29
Jan Plug Dordrecht · 2026-06-29
Gjivai Zechiel Utrecht · 2026-06-29
Stephano Carrillo Dordrecht · 2026-06-29
Jeyland Mitchell Sturm Graz · 2026-06-29
Jaden Slory G.A. Eagles · 2026-06-29
Plamen Andreev Lech Poznan · 2026-06-29
Neraysho Kasanwirjo Sittard · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Jerayson Hoepel FC Volendam · 2026-06-29
Rayan Boulahrouz Helmond · 2026-06-29
Jeyland Mitchell Sturm Graz · 2026-06-29
Plamen Andreev Debrecen · 2026-06-29
Raheem Sterling no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Gernot Trauner no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Ayoub Ouarghi Dordrecht · 2026-06-30
Lucas Gardenier Dordrecht · 2026-06-30
Jaden Slory Willem II · 2026-07-06
Jan Plug Excelsior · 2026-07-12
Timon Wellenreuther Wolfsburg · 2026-07-14
Ramiz Zerrouki Twente · 2026-07-20

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Mika Marmol	D	Las Palmas	the Segunda	3166	36	3	2	98
Anis Hadj Moussa	F	Feyenoord	the Eredivisie	2553	30	11	6	98
Nacho	F	Westerlo	the Belgian Pro League	2820	37	10	2	95
Gjivai Zechiel	M	Utrecht	the Eredivisie	2808	34	8	7	94
Ayase Ueda	F	Feyenoord	the Eredivisie	2533	31	25	1	95
Tsuyoshi Watanabe	D	Feyenoord	the Eredivisie	2637	30	2	0	93

Nijmegenprojected 60 pts · band 51–69 · 1.98 scored and 1.26 conceded per game · Dick Schreuder

squad age (by minutes) 26.4minutes from above 1%from below 14%last season’s minutes retained 75%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 85%, the Eerste Divisie 14%.

We project 60 points (51–69), against a division average of 47. Last season: 59 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: attacking end (+6), squad quality (+5), the club’s own last season (+3) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 28 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 12 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €57.5m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
attacking end	+5.6
squad quality	+4.6
the club’s own last season	+2.9
minutes from the Championship or above	+1.4
ball-winning	-1.3

In since 1 May

Tobias Storm Lyngby · 2026-06-30
Perr Schuurs Torino · 2026-06-30
Kaj Sierhuis Sittard · 2026-06-30
Adam Tahaui Vitesse · 2026-07-06
Jamiro Monteiro Zwolle · 2026-07-12
Yousri Sbai Venlo · 2026-06-29
Luc Nieuwenhuijs Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-29
Merijn van de Wiel Oss · 2026-06-29
Argyrios Darelas Dordrecht · 2026-06-29
Vito van Crooij Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-29
Rober Gonzalez Zaragoza · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Luc Nieuwenhuijs Jong Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-29
Argyrios Darelas no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Rijk Janse Groningen · 2026-06-29
Rober Gonzalez no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Youssef El Kachati Reims · 2026-06-29
Eli Dasa no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Virgil Misidjan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jetro Willems no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jasper Cillessen no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Basar Onal Lille · 2026-07-06
Ahmetcan Kaplan Ajax · 2026-06-29
Pereira Danilo Rangers · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Darko Nejasmic	M	Nijmegen	the Eredivisie	2311	29	4	1	98
Kodai Sano	M	Nijmegen	the Eredivisie	3060	34	3	7	91
Tjarron Chery	F	Nijmegen	the Eredivisie	2755	33	10	6	88
Sami Ouaissa	M	Nijmegen	the Eredivisie	2644	33	6	6	84
Kaj Sierhuis	F	Sittard	the Eredivisie	1998	30	12	1	91
Adam Tahaui	F	Vitesse	the Eerste Divisie	2830	37	5	10	93

Twenteprojected 58 pts · band 50–67 · 1.87 scored and 1.32 conceded per game · John van den Brom

squad age (by minutes) 26.0minutes from above 0%from below 5%last season’s minutes retained 85%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 95%, the Eerste Divisie 5%.

We project 58 points (50–67), against a division average of 47. Last season: 58 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 4th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+4), attacking end (+3), the club’s own last season (+2) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 7 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €80.0m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
squad quality	+4.1
attacking end	+3.0
the club’s own last season	+2.4
minutes from the Championship or above	+2.2
ball-winning	-0.2

In since 1 May

Krzysztof Kurowski Slask Wroclaw · 2026-06-30
Aske Adelgaard G.A. Eagles · 2026-06-30
Wout Weghorst Ajax · 2026-06-30
Remko Pasveer Heracles · 2026-06-30
Ramiz Zerrouki Feyenoord · 2026-07-19
Harrie Kuster Waalwijk · 2026-06-29
Gijs Besselink Willem II · 2026-06-29
Julien Mesbahi FC Emmen · 2026-06-29
Younes Taha Groningen · 2026-06-29
Sayfallah Ltaief Greuther Furth · 2026-06-29
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck Heracles · 2026-06-29
Naci Unuvar Heracles · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Mats Rots Hoffenheim · 2026-06-29
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck Hajduk Split · 2026-06-29
Bas Kuipers Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-29
Ricky van Wolfswinkel no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Przemyslaw Tyton no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Sam Karssies FC Emmen · 2026-06-30
Ramiz Zerrouki Feyenoord · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Bart van Rooij	D	Twente	the Eredivisie	2928	33	3	4	100
Ramiz Zerrouki	M	Twente	the Eredivisie	2667	32	3	1	95
Sondre Orjasaeter	M	Twente	the Eredivisie	2154	31	3	6	89
Robin Propper	D	Twente	the Eredivisie	1723	29	0	0	92
Daan Rots	M	Twente	the Eredivisie	2368	33	9	4	77
Younes Taha	M	Groningen	the Eredivisie	2698	33	5	9	71

Ajaxprojected 56 pts · band 47–65 · 1.86 scored and 1.41 conceded per game · Michel

squad age (by minutes) 23.7minutes from above 9%from below 28%last season’s minutes retained 79%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 63%, the Eerste Divisie 28%, La Liga 6%, Ligue 1 3%.

We project 56 points (47–65), against a division average of 47. Last season: 56 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 5th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+5), squad quality (+3), the club’s own last season (+1) points. Of the 32 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 4 of the 38 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 34. Squad value on our player feed: €179.0m across 31 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
attacking end	+4.8
squad quality	+2.8
the club’s own last season	+1.5
ball-winning	-0.2
minutes from the Championship or above	+0.1

In since 1 May

Marvin Muzungu Jong Ajax · 2026-05-15
Henrique Caio Monaco · 2026-06-30
Daley Blind Girona · 2026-07-07
Leonardo Marcos Al Hilal · 2026-07-16
Nick Verschuren FC Volendam · 2026-06-29
Gerald Alders Telstar · 2026-06-29
Jan Faberski Zwolle · 2026-06-29
Julian Rijkhoff Almere City · 2026-06-29
Tristan Gooijer Zwolle · 2026-06-29
Amourricho van Axel Dongen Heerenveen · 2026-06-29
Charlie Setford MK Dons · 2026-06-29
Ahmetcan Kaplan Nijmegen · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Lucas Jetten Cambuur · 2026-06-29
Nick Verschuren Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-29
Sivert Mannsverk Sparta Prague · 2026-06-29
Takehiro Tomiyasu no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Oleksandr Zinchenko no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Chuba Akpom Ipswich · 2026-06-29
Wout Weghorst Twente · 2026-06-29
Branco van den Boomen Angers · 2026-06-29
Sean Steur Newcastle · 2026-07-07
Maximilian Ibrahimovic AC Milan · 2026-06-29
Vitezslav Jaros Liverpool · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Mika Godts	F	Ajax	the Eredivisie	2686	32	17	12	100
Youri Baas	D	Ajax	the Eredivisie	2760	31	4	1	97
Daley Blind	D	Girona	La Liga	2610	34	0	0	84
Ahmetcan Kaplan	D	Nijmegen	the Eredivisie	2050	25	1	0	83
Steven Berghuis	F	Ajax	the Eredivisie	1147	21	4	2	97
Youri Regeer	M	Ajax	the Eredivisie	1697	28	0	2	87

AZ Alkmaarprojected 54 pts · band 46–63 · 1.77 scored and 1.46 conceded per game · Leeroy Echteld

squad age (by minutes) 23.3minutes from above 0%from below 17%last season’s minutes retained 92%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 83%, the Eerste Divisie 17%.

We project 54 points (46–63), against a division average of 47. Last season: 52 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 7th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+4), squad quality (+3), minutes from the Championship or above (+1) points. Of the 32 men who played for them last season, 27 are still on the list. 2 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 29. Squad value on our player feed: €160.8m across 32 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
attacking end	+3.7
squad quality	+2.9
minutes from the Championship or above	+1.1
the club’s own last season	-0.4
ball-winning	+0.0

In since 1 May

Abdelnour Soualhia Le Puy-en-Velay · 2026-06-30
Jari De Busser G.A. Eagles · 2026-06-30
Melle Roede Heracles · 2026-06-29
Lewis Schouten Excelsior · 2026-06-29
Dave Kwakman FC Volendam · 2026-06-29
Finn Stam Willem II · 2026-06-29
Sem van Duijn Telstar · 2026-06-29
Lequincio Zeefuik Heracles · 2026-06-29
Zico Buurmeester Zwolle · 2026-06-29
Sem Westerveld Maastricht · 2026-06-29
Mayckel Lahdo Brondby · 2026-06-29
Kristijan Belic Maccabi Tel Aviv · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Jur Schipper no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Finn Stam Willem II · 2026-06-29
Daniel Deen no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Sem Westerveld no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Sven Mijnans PSV · 2026-06-29
Kristijan Belic Maccabi Tel Aviv · 2026-06-29
Lequincio Zeefuik Sittard · 2026-06-30
Abdelnour Soualhia Telstar · 2026-07-01
Zico Buurmeester Leganes · 2026-07-04
Nick Twisk Derry City · 2026-07-06
Andrea Natali Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Jari De Busser	G	G.A. Eagles	the Eredivisie	3060	34	0	0	85
Wouter Goes	D	AZ Alkmaar	the Eredivisie	2757	33	1	0	84
Troy Parrott	F	AZ Alkmaar	the Eredivisie	2206	28	16	4	91
Penetra	D	AZ Alkmaar	the Eredivisie	2846	33	2	1	80
Billy van Duijl	D	Jong AZ	the Eerste Divisie	2115	24	0	2	97
Kees Smit	M	AZ Alkmaar	the Eredivisie	2138	26	3	3	81

Heerenveenprojected 51 pts · band 43–60 · 1.63 scored and 1.50 conceded per game · Robin Veldman

squad age (by minutes) 24.9minutes from above 0%from below 2%last season’s minutes retained 95%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 98%.

We project 51 points (43–60), against a division average of 47. Last season: 51 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+2), squad quality (+1), attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-1) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 9 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €51.5m across 20 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
minutes from the Championship or above	+2.5
squad quality	+1.4
the club’s own last season	-0.9
attacking end	+0.8
ball-winning	+0.7

In since 1 May

Darling Bladi Betis · 2026-07-02
Eser Gurbuz Willem II · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

Nordin Bakker Midtjylland · 2026-06-29
Jan Bekkema no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Joris van Overeem Utrecht · 2026-07-20
Eser Gurbuz Willem II · 2026-07-21
Amourricho van Axel Dongen Ajax · 2026-06-29
Selvag Nordas Lasse Luton · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Joris van Overeem	M	Heerenveen	the Eredivisie	2938	33	2	9	96
Jacob Trenskow	M	Heerenveen	the Eredivisie	2683	33	12	5	92
Ringo Meerveld	F	Heerenveen	the Eredivisie	2447	30	6	3	84
Vasilios Zagaritis	D	Heerenveen	the Eredivisie	2816	34	2	3	75
Marcus Linday	M	Heerenveen	the Eredivisie	2326	32	1	2	75
Maas Willemsen	D	Heerenveen	the Eredivisie	2578	34	1	0	69

Groningenprojected 45 pts · band 36–54 · 1.44 scored and 1.55 conceded per game · Dick Lukkien

squad age (by minutes) 23.7minutes from above 0%from below 5%last season’s minutes retained 73%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 95%, the Eerste Divisie 5%.

We project 45 points (36–54), against a division average of 47. Last season: 48 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 9th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+2) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-2), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 21 men who played for them last season, 15 are still on the list. 15 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €34.8m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
the club’s own last season	-2.3
minutes from the Championship or above	+2.1
attacking end	-0.8
squad quality	-0.4
ball-winning	-0.4

In since 1 May

Kaid Becker Groningen · 2026-06-30
Christopher Fafiani Groningen · 2026-06-30
Travis Hernes Newcastle · 2026-06-30
Rijk Janse Nijmegen · 2026-06-30
Pelle Clement Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-30
Nikolas Brandis Trencin · 2026-07-22
Nils Eggens De Graafschap · 2026-06-29
Fofin Turay Oss · 2026-06-29
Noam Emeran FC Emmen · 2026-06-29
Romano Postema FC Emmen · 2026-06-29
Thijs Oosting Zwolle · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Dirk Baron FC Emmen · 2026-06-29
Thijs Oosting Zwolle · 2026-06-29
Hidde Jurjus no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Marvin Peersman no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Mats Seuntjens no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Fofin Turay no club recorded · 2026-06-30
Romano Postema Viking · 2026-07-12
Rui Mendes Telstar · 2026-07-12
Travis Hernes Newcastle · 2026-06-29
Dies Janse Jong Ajax · 2026-06-29
Younes Taha Twente · 2026-06-29
Tygo Land PSV · 2027-06-30

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Stije Resink	M	Groningen	the Eredivisie	2095	24	5	5	97
Thijmen Blokzijl	D	Groningen	the Eredivisie	3052	34	1	1	82
Marco Rente	D	Groningen	the Eredivisie	2278	31	3	4	90
Jorg Schreuders	D	Groningen	the Eredivisie	2834	34	1	2	61
David van der Werff	M	Groningen	the Eredivisie	2068	34	3	2	60
Thom van Bergen	M	Groningen	the Eredivisie	2982	34	9	4	49

Den Haagprojected 44 pts · band 35–52 · 1.49 scored and 1.57 conceded per game · Robin Peter

squad age (by minutes) 23.7minutes from above 0%from below 94%last season’s minutes retained 73%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eerste Divisie 88%, the 3. Liga 6%, the Eredivisie 6%.

We project 44 points (35–52), against a division average of 47. Last season: 89 points in the Eerste Divisie, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+7), ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: minutes from the Championship or above (-6), squad quality (-3), attacking end (-3) points. Of the 19 men who played for them last season, 13 are still on the list. 10 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €10.1m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
the club’s own last season	+7.4
minutes from the Championship or above	-6.0
squad quality	-3.5
attacking end	-2.7
ball-winning	+1.7

In since 1 May

Lasse Wilhelm Saarbrucken · 2026-07-13
Jan Zamburek Heracles · 2026-07-13
Donat Barany Debrecen · 2026-07-14
Niclas Thiede Bochum · 2026-07-14
Yannick Eduardo Hoffenheim · 2026-07-20
Taneli Hamalainen KuPS · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Joey Brandt no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Maikey Houwaart no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Lorenzo Maasland no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Devyn Payne no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Steven van der Sloot Dusseldorf · 2026-06-29
Taneli Hamalainen KuPS · 2026-06-29
Mees Kreekels no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Diogo Tomas no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jari Vlak Castellon · 2026-07-06
Antoine Lejoly Eupen · 2026-07-15
Bryan Fiabema Lech Poznan · 2026-06-29
Yannick Eduardo Hoffenheim · 2027-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Juho Kilo	M	Den Haag	the Eerste Divisie	3140	38	4	9	100
Pascal Mulder	D	FC Emmen	the Eerste Divisie	1799	20	5	2	100
Matteo Waem	D	Den Haag	the Eerste Divisie	3056	37	3	3	90
Milan Hokke	D	Den Haag	the Eerste Divisie	2004	31	1	4	94
Yannick Eduardo	F	Dordrecht	the Eerste Divisie	1808	22	12	4	84
Illaijh de Ruijter	D	Den Haag	the Eerste Divisie	1331	27	2	1	80

Utrechtprojected 43 pts · band 34–51 · 1.42 scored and 1.57 conceded per game · Ron Jans

squad age (by minutes) 24.4minutes from above 0%from below 35%last season’s minutes retained 59%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 65%, the Eerste Divisie 34%.

We project 43 points (34–51), against a division average of 47. Last season: 53 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 6th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-2), attacking end (-1), minutes from the Championship or above (-1) points. Of the 32 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 8 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €62.4m across 30 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
squad quality	-2.3
attacking end	-1.0
minutes from the Championship or above	-0.6
ball-winning	-0.3
the club’s own last season	+0.1

In since 1 May

Chigozle Owen Emmanuel Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-06-30
Jamie Schuldes RB Leipzig · 2026-06-30
Ferdinand Pohl Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-06-30
Angel Alarcon FC Porto · 2026-06-30
Guus Offerhaus Telstar · 2026-06-30
Kevin Paredes Wolfsburg · 2026-06-30
Joris van Overeem Heerenveen · 2026-07-19
Gustav Arcos Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-29
Jesse van de Haar Beveren · 2026-06-29
Neville Ogidi Nwankwo Telstar · 2026-06-29
Tom de Graaff Zwolle · 2026-06-29
Miliano Jonathans Excelsior · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Gustav Arcos Jong Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-29
Jesse van de Haar Waalwijk · 2026-06-29
Lynden Edhart no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Wessel Kooy no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Tom de Graaff Zwolle · 2026-06-29
Can Bozdogan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Mike van der Hoorn AEK Larnaca · 2026-06-29
Sebastien Haller Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 2026-06-29
Nick Viergever Zwolle · 2026-07-01
Neal Viereck Tenerife · 2026-07-16
Emirhan Demircan Telstar · 2026-07-20
Souffian El Karouani Al Qadsiah · 2026-07-20

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Joris van Overeem	M	Heerenveen	the Eredivisie	2938	33	2	9	96
Alonzo Engwanda	M	Utrecht	the Eredivisie	2924	34	0	1	80
Vasilis Barkas	G	Utrecht	the Eredivisie	2931	33	0	0	71
Yoann Cathline	F	Utrecht	the Eredivisie	1896	26	3	4	85
Oualid Agougil	D	Jong Utrecht	the Eerste Divisie	2396	29	0	8	91
Dani de Wit	M	Utrecht	the Eredivisie	2161	27	7	3	71

Sparta Rotterdamprojected 41 pts · band 33–50 · 1.32 scored and 1.64 conceded per game

squad age (by minutes) 24.8minutes from above 2%from below 8%last season’s minutes retained 51%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 85%, the Eerste Divisie 8%, the Primeira Liga 5%.

We project 41 points (33–50), against a division average of 47. Last season: 43 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 10th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+2) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-5), attacking end (-1), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 12 are still on the list. 7 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €23.5m across 19 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
the club’s own last season	-4.6
minutes from the Championship or above	+1.9
attacking end	-1.4
squad quality	-1.2
ball-winning	-0.5

In since 1 May

Nick Verschuren Ajax · 2026-06-30
Casper Terho Leuven · 2026-06-30
Bas Kuipers Twente · 2026-06-30
Jorn Triep Venlo · 2026-06-29
Layee Kromah Venlo · 2026-06-29
Joel Ideho FC Volendam · 2026-06-29
Youri Schoonderwaldt Venlo · 2026-06-29
Tijs Velthuis Zwolle · 2026-06-29
Lance Duijvestijn Sittard · 2026-06-29
Boyd Reith Almere City · 2026-06-29
Nokkvi Thorisson Telstar · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Tijs Velthuis Zwolle · 2026-06-29
Lance Duijvestijn Darmstadt · 2026-06-29
Gaston Kitolano Joshua Bodo/Glimt · 2026-06-29
Said Bakari no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Tobias Lauritsen no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Pelle Clement Groningen · 2026-06-29
Jonathan de Guzman no club recorded · 2026-06-30
Youri Schoonderwaldt Venlo · 2026-07-08
Luc Nieuwenhuijs Nijmegen · 2026-06-29
Andy Visser Duisburg · 2026-06-29
Gustav Arcos Utrecht · 2026-06-29
Casper Terho Leuven · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Marvin Young	D	Sparta Rotterdam	the Eredivisie	2970	33	0	1	83
Bruno Martins Indi	D	Sparta Rotterdam	the Eredivisie	2211	29	1	0	85
Teo Quintero	D	Sparta Rotterdam	the Eredivisie	2475	32	1	1	78
Nick Verschuren	D	FC Volendam	the Eredivisie	2682	32	0	1	67
Shunsuke Mito	M	Sparta Rotterdam	the Eredivisie	1871	25	7	3	76
Mitchell van Bergen	M	Sparta Rotterdam	the Eredivisie	2338	29	3	4	59

G.A. Eaglesprojected 38 pts · band 29–46 · 1.22 scored and 1.80 conceded per game · Melvin Boel

squad age (by minutes) 25.3minutes from above 0%from below 18%last season’s minutes retained 64%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 82%, the Eerste Divisie 18%.

We project 38 points (29–46), against a division average of 47. Last season: 38 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 12th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+1), ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-7), squad quality (-3), attacking end (-2) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 8 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €21.3m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
the club’s own last season	-7.0
squad quality	-2.6
attacking end	-1.5
minutes from the Championship or above	+1.0
ball-winning	+0.7

In since 1 May

Kjetil Haug Toulouse · 2026-06-30
Nick Marsman Sittard · 2026-06-30
Tomas Galvez Manchester City · 2026-07-06
Erik Flataker AIK · 2026-07-07
Milan Smit Stoke · 2026-06-29
Calvin Twigt Willem II · 2026-06-29
Luca Everink FC Emmen · 2026-06-29
Xander Blomme Eindhoven FC · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Milan Smit Stoke · 2026-06-29
Sven Jansen Oss · 2026-06-29
Aske Adelgaard Twente · 2026-06-29
Luca Everink FC Emmen · 2026-06-29
Xander Blomme Eindhoven FC · 2026-06-29
Jari De Busser AZ Alkmaar · 2026-06-29
Jakob Breum St Etienne · 2026-07-01
Jaden Slory Feyenoord · 2026-06-29
Kenzo Goudmijn Derby · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Melle Meulensteen	M	G.A. Eagles	the Eredivisie	2832	34	6	1	90
Joris Kramer	D	G.A. Eagles	the Eredivisie	3015	34	1	3	88
Julius Dirksen	D	G.A. Eagles	the Eredivisie	1174	31	2	0	92
Calvin Twigt	M	Willem II	the Eerste Divisie	1145	13	2	2	97
Mathis Suray	M	G.A. Eagles	the Eredivisie	2603	33	12	2	56
Ingi Sigurdarson Stefan	F	G.A. Eagles	the Eredivisie	637	14	3	0	54

Zwolleprojected 34 pts · band 26–43 · 1.14 scored and 1.76 conceded per game · Henry Van Der Vegt

squad age (by minutes) 26.5minutes from above 0%from below 4%last season’s minutes retained 66%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 96%, Ligue 2 4%.

We project 34 points (26–43), against a division average of 47. Last season: 37 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 15th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+2) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-7), squad quality (-5), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 22 men who played for them last season, 14 are still on the list. 14 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 13. Squad value on our player feed: €16.1m across 19 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
the club’s own last season	-7.4
squad quality	-5.1
minutes from the Championship or above	+2.3
attacking end	-1.4
ball-winning	-0.9

In since 1 May

Rodney Kroeze Zwolle · 2026-05-01
Tom de Graaff Utrecht · 2026-06-30
Tijs Velthuis Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-30
Thijs Oosting Groningen · 2026-06-30
Elias Sorensen Valerenga · 2026-06-30
Nick Viergever Utrecht · 2026-06-30
Tobias Sommer Sonderjyske · 2026-07-08
Dylan Mbayo Laval · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

David Voute FC Emmen · 2026-06-29
Anselmo Garcia MacNulty Magdeburg · 2026-06-29
Kaj de Rooij Valladolid · 2026-06-29
Thomas Buitink Sparta Nijkerk · 2026-06-29
Samir Lagsir no club recorded · 2026-06-30
Jamiro Monteiro Nijmegen · 2026-07-11
Jan Faberski Ajax · 2026-06-29
Tom de Graaff Utrecht · 2026-06-29
Tristan Gooijer Ajax · 2026-06-29
Zico Buurmeester AZ Alkmaar · 2026-06-29
Shola Shoretire PAOK · 2026-06-29
Tijs Velthuis Sparta Rotterdam · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Ryan Thomas	M	Zwolle	the Eredivisie	2157	29	1	1	91
Younes Namli	M	Zwolle	the Eredivisie	1057	13	2	4	99
Koen Kostons	F	Zwolle	the Eredivisie	2887	34	11	6	64
Simon Graves	D	Zwolle	the Eredivisie	2681	32	0	2	61
Thijs Oosting	M	Zwolle	the Eredivisie	2652	34	6	3	45
Nick Viergever	D	Utrecht	the Eredivisie	1750	30	0	0	48

Sittardprojected 33 pts · band 24–42 · 1.09 scored and 1.71 conceded per game · Danny Buijs

squad age (by minutes) 26.9minutes from above 2%from below 6%last season’s minutes retained 61%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 92%, the Challenger Pro League 6%.

We project 33 points (24–42), against a division average of 47. Last season: 39 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 11th. What pushes them up: minutes from the Championship or above (+2) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-7), squad quality (-5), attacking end (-3) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 12 are still on the list. 8 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 15. Squad value on our player feed: €30.8m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
the club’s own last season	-6.5
squad quality	-5.1
attacking end	-2.7
minutes from the Championship or above	+2.1
ball-winning	-1.7

In since 1 May

Gani Buyukhan Sittard · 2026-05-08
Sven Simons Eindhoven FC · 2026-06-30
Lequincio Zeefuik AZ Alkmaar · 2026-06-30
Siebe Wylin Club Brugge KV · 2026-07-09
Ole ter Haar Romeny Oxford Utd · 2026-07-10
Onur Demir Petrzalka · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Hasip Korkmazyurek no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Onur Demir no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Niels Martens no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Luka Tunjic no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Tristan Schenkhuizen Venlo · 2026-06-29
Daan Bisschops FC Volendam · 2026-06-29
Shawn Adewoye no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Kaj Sierhuis Nijmegen · 2026-06-29
Daley Sinkgraven no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Paul Gladon NAC Breda · 2026-06-29
Samuel Bastien no club recorded · 2026-07-06
Neraysho Kasanwirjo Feyenoord · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Mohammed Ihattaren	M	Sittard	the Eredivisie	1946	28	6	10	92
Philip Brittijn	D	Sittard	the Eredivisie	2415	32	4	1	73
Kristoffer Peterson	F	Sittard	the Eredivisie	1696	34	3	2	60
Syb van Ottele	D	Sittard	the Eredivisie	901	22	0	0	70
Lequincio Zeefuik	F	Heracles	the Eredivisie	1061	16	2	0	61
Edouard Michut	M	Sittard	the Eredivisie	1592	20	0	0	48

Excelsiorprojected 33 pts · band 24–41 · 1.02 scored and 1.81 conceded per game · Ruben den Uil

squad age (by minutes) 23.6minutes from above 0%from below 34%last season’s minutes retained 58%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eredivisie 66%, the Eerste Divisie 34%.

We project 33 points (24–41), against a division average of 47. Last season: 38 points in the Eredivisie, finishing 13th. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-7), attacking end (-6), squad quality (-1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 11 are still on the list. 12 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 15. Squad value on our player feed: €21.0m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
the club’s own last season	-7.0
attacking end	-5.6
squad quality	-1.3
minutes from the Championship or above	-0.4
ball-winning	+0.2

In since 1 May

Marlon van de Wetering Eindhoven FC · 2026-06-30
Yaqub Finey Sundsvall · 2026-06-30
Kasey Bos Mainz · 2026-06-30
Daniel van Vianen Dordrecht · 2026-06-30
David Garden Quick Boys · 2026-07-07
Jan Plug Feyenoord · 2026-07-12
Ilano Silva Timas Maastricht · 2026-07-14
Celton Biai Dordrecht · 2026-07-17
Aymen Sliti Feyenoord · 2026-08-04
Nolan Martens De Graafschap · 2026-06-29
Zach Booth Real Salt Lake · 2026-12-31

Out since 1 May

Hamdi Akujobi no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Arthur Zagre no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Emil Hansson Zaragoza · 2026-06-29
Mike van Duinen no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Ilias Bronkhorst Huddersfield · 2026-07-01
Jerroldino Bergraaf Jong AZ · 2026-07-07
Calvin Raatsie Dordrecht · 2026-07-15
Adam Carlen Artis Brno · 2026-07-16
Derensili Sanches Fernandes Huddersfield · 2026-07-19
Szymon Wlodarczyk Sturm Graz · 2026-06-23
Lewis Schouten AZ Alkmaar · 2026-06-29
Miliano Jonathans Utrecht · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Casper Widell	D	Excelsior	the Eredivisie	3054	34	1	1	81
Stijn van Gassel	G	Excelsior	the Eredivisie	2820	32	0	1	83
Irakli Yegoian	M	Excelsior	the Eredivisie	2675	31	5	2	82
Gyan de Regt	F	Excelsior	the Eredivisie	2662	34	3	7	73
Jan Plug	D	Dordrecht	the Eerste Divisie	1264	14	1	0	92
Rick Meissen	D	Excelsior	the Eredivisie	2513	34	0	3	52

Cambuurprojected 32 pts · band 23–41 · 1.08 scored and 1.75 conceded per game · Henk de Jong

squad age (by minutes) 22.8minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 44%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eerste Divisie 94%, Ligue 2 6%.

We project 32 points (23–41), against a division average of 47. Last season: 78 points in the Eerste Divisie, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+3), ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-8), minutes from the Championship or above (-7), squad quality (-5) points. Of the 20 men who played for them last season, 8 are still on the list. 11 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 15. Squad value on our player feed: €11.1m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
attacking end	-7.6
minutes from the Championship or above	-6.5
squad quality	-4.6
the club’s own last season	+2.8
ball-winning	+1.2

In since 1 May

Louka Vanderbruggen De Graafschap · 2026-06-30
Morgan Costarelli Lille · 2026-06-30
Lucas Jetten Ajax · 2026-06-30
Ryan van de Pavert Jong Ajax · 2026-06-30
Skye Vink Jong Ajax · 2026-06-30
Ilyes Hamache Schalke · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

Jochem Nap Waalwijk · 2026-06-29
Sybrand Veldhuis FC Emmen · 2026-06-29
Toni Jonker no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Bram Marsman Roda · 2026-06-29
Diyae Jermoumi no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Tony Rolke no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Remco Balk Bali United · 2026-06-29
Jort van der Sande Bali United · 2026-06-29
Mark Diemers no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Kian Visser TPS · 2026-07-01
Ichem Ferrah Lille · 2026-06-29
Tomas Galvez Manchester City · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Ismael Baouf	D	Cambuur	the Eerste Divisie	2608	29	6	1	97
Jamal Amofa	D	Cambuur	the Eerste Divisie	3128	36	1	6	93
Thijs Jansen	G	Cambuur	the Eerste Divisie	3418	38	0	1	80
Rik Mulders	D	Cambuur	the Eerste Divisie	2225	31	0	2	83
Iwan Henstra	F	Cambuur	the Eerste Divisie	585	38	5	2	73
Ryan van de Pavert	D	Jong Ajax	the Eerste Divisie	441	13	0	0	74

Willem IIprojected 28 pts · band 20–37 · 0.93 scored and 1.90 conceded per game · John Stegeman

squad age (by minutes) 24.7minutes from above 0%from below 97%last season’s minutes retained 60%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Eerste Divisie 97%.

We project 28 points (20–37), against a division average of 47. Last season: 68 points in the Eerste Divisie, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-8), minutes from the Championship or above (-6), squad quality (-5) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 14 are still on the list. 7 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €9.3m across 19 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes from	Pts
attacking end	-8.3
minutes from the Championship or above	-6.3
squad quality	-4.5
ball-winning	+1.8
the club’s own last season	-1.4

In since 1 May

Finn Stam AZ Alkmaar · 2026-06-30
Jaden Slory Feyenoord · 2026-07-06
Eser Gurbuz Heerenveen · 2026-07-21
Emilio Kehrer Ingolstadt · 2026-06-29
Boris Lambert Kortrijk · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

Mika de Jonge Eindhoven FC · 2026-06-29
Feliciano de Ruijter no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Dani Mathieu no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Emilio Kehrer Winterthur · 2026-06-29
Boris Lambert Kortrijk · 2026-06-29
Nick Doodeman FC Volendam · 2026-06-29
Raffael Behounek Wolfsberger AC · 2026-06-29
Mounir El Allouchi no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Junior Poortvliet Eindhoven FC · 2026-06-30
Gijs Besselink Twente · 2026-06-29
Finn Stam AZ Alkmaar · 2026-06-29
Samuel Bamba Bochum · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

Player	Pos	Where in 2025/26	Division	Mins	Apps	G	A	Rating pct
Devin Haen	F	Willem II	the Eerste Divisie	2897	33	18	4	90
Justin Hoogma	D	Willem II	the Eerste Divisie	2760	33	2	2	89
Thomas Didillon Hodl	G	Willem II	the Eerste Divisie	3150	35	0	0	82
Finn Stam	D	Willem II	the Eerste Divisie	1196	20	1	0	90
Thomas Verheydt	F	Willem II	the Eerste Divisie	1519	29	10	3	84
Alessandro Ciranni	D	Willem II	the Eerste Divisie	1418	21	0	2	77

What this does not know. Squads are as our club feed returned them on 2026-07-28, and the window is still open — a signing made after that is missing, and the model would rate him if he were there. 149 of the 510 registered players have no measured season in our data at all: academy graduates and men signed from divisions we do not cover. They are simply left out of their club’s number rather than guessed at — which is its own kind of blindness, and the count is printed on every club card. We tried making the count of them an input: it improved the backtest and we dropped it anyway, because in the backtest a squad is the men who played and today it is the men a club has registered, so clubs with large academies were being marked down for paperwork. Ratings come from our match-level player records, which start to thin out below the fourth tier. The model has no transfer fees, no injuries, no coaches, no budgets and no pre-season, and it treats last season’s minutes as the guide to this season’s — so a club that has just changed manager and bought a first eleven is exactly where it will be most wrong. It is a projection of a season, not a guide to a match, and it is not a betting product.

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