La Liga 2026/27: a projection built from the players, club by club

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GoalSoon · built 05 September 2026 · every figure is our own calculation

20 clubs, 574 players currently registered with them, and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and published: ±7 points.

How to read the number

On this page: how it works · how wrong it is · the 20 clubs · where it disagrees with last season · where the minutes were played · club by club

The idea

A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every player registered with the 20 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.

The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on 8,628 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale. The zero has to sit somewhere and we put it on League One, so every number below reads as “this much above or below a League One season”:

DivisionLevel, in rating zMoves seen
the Premier League+1.461015
La Liga+1.181247
the Bundesliga+1.07918
Serie A+1.031524
Ligue 1+0.831139
the Championship+0.611189
the Belgian Pro League+0.44628
the Eredivisie+0.36731
the Segunda+0.351288
the Primeira Liga+0.35652
the 2. Bundesliga+0.26590
Serie B+0.231120
the Scottish Premiership+0.02408
Ligue 2+0.00662
League One+0.001560
the 3. Liga-0.18270
the HNL-0.21279
League Two-0.271267
the Challenger Pro League-0.27228
the Eerste Divisie-0.36515

The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in (+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not charged to the divisions.

What goes into a club’s number

Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:

InputWeightWhat it is
squad quality+0.453Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale.
the club’s own last season+0.252What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one.
attacking end+0.184The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in.
ball-winning+0.099Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale.
minutes from the Championship or above+0.063How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division rated above League One — the Championship, the Premier League or a foreign division at that level. The threshold is fixed at League One for every page, so the input means the same thing wherever it is used. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly.

Fitted on 117 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.

How wrong it is

Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is scored on data it was fitted on:

ApproachError, pts/gameOver 38 games
Give every club the division average0.361 ±13.7
Repeat last season, adjusted for level0.228 ±8.7
This model, from the players0.181 ±6.9

So it is worth about 7 points of accuracy over knowing nothing, and about 2 points over assuming last season repeats. That is a real edge and a small one — on 117 club-seasons it holds against the division average at p < 0.001. One thing that number does not say on its own: this method was carried over from three English divisions and tested on thirteen more before any of them got a page. Seven failed and have none — almost all of them second tiers, where a squad explains far less of a season. This division is one that passed, so read the figure as a division that survived a selection, not as a single test. The whole projected range across the division is 52 points and the error on any one club is ±7, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered, and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 20 clubs 1 to 20 in August is not measuring their own error.

The same model run on goals rather than points gives 0.200 of a goal per game of error on goals scored against 0.321 for the division average, and 0.181 against 0.243 on goals conceded. Both are small gains, and neither is the point of the page: the model is built and tested on points.

The 20 clubs

ClubProjected ptsBandScored/gameConceded/game SquadNo dataAgeMins from aboveMins from below Last season ptsWhere
Barcelona9083–972.130.7930824.45%3%94La Liga
Real Madrid8578–922.030.83411725.70%0%86La Liga
Villarreal6861–751.651.0925825.90%0%72La Liga
Atl. Madrid6660–731.591.08391427.70%2%69La Liga
Betis6558–721.571.0929827.70%0%60La Liga
Celta Vigo5649–631.381.2330527.10%4%54La Liga
Rayo Vallecano5245–591.261.2423429.40%0%50La Liga
Elche4942–561.211.27311427.00%16%43La Liga
Valencia4842–551.181.30281127.80%9%49La Liga
Sevilla4740–541.171.33301026.20%7%43La Liga
Osasuna4740–541.211.3522529.00%0%42La Liga
Real Sociedad4740–531.201.3831524.40%33%46La Liga
Alaves4437–511.101.3923628.00%5%43La Liga
Ath Bilbao4336–501.081.39341027.30%13%45La Liga
Racing Santander4235–491.161.53241024.80%100%82the Segunda
Levante4134–481.161.5327725.90%31%41La Liga
Espanyol4033–470.981.4327726.44%31%46La Liga
Malaga3932–461.031.4829525.40%100%73the Segunda
Dep. A Coruna3932–461.041.5430826.60%100%77the Segunda
Getafe3831–440.871.4521828.80%0%51La Liga

▲ upper group   ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection ± half the measured error, not by predicted position. Age is the squad’s average age weighted by the minutes each man played last season, so it describes the side that actually plays rather than the registration list. Mins from above and from below are the shares of last season’s measured minutes played in a division rated higher or lower than this one; the rest were played at this level or in a division we cannot place.

Where it disagrees with last season

The plainest rival to this model is “whatever the club did last season, corrected for the division it did it in” — the second row of the error table above. Here is that number next to ours, club by club. Where the two agree, the squad has not really changed. Where they part, the summer did something the table cannot see:

ClubLast seasonRepeat it, level-adjustedThis model Difference
Racing Santander82 pts, the Segunda, 1st6042-18
Dep. A Coruna77 pts, the Segunda, 2nd5539-17
Getafe51 pts, La Liga, 7th5138-13
Malaga73 pts, the Segunda, 4th5239-13
Espanyol46 pts, La Liga, 11th4640-6
Elche43 pts, La Liga, 13th4349+6
Betis60 pts, La Liga, 5th6065+5
Osasuna42 pts, La Liga, 16th4247+5
Sevilla43 pts, La Liga, 15th4347+4
Barcelona94 pts, La Liga, 1st9490-4
Villarreal72 pts, La Liga, 3rd7268-4
Atl. Madrid69 pts, La Liga, 4th6966-3
Rayo Vallecano50 pts, La Liga, 8th5052+2
Ath Bilbao45 pts, La Liga, 12th4543-2
Celta Vigo54 pts, La Liga, 6th5456+2
Levante41 pts, La Liga, 18th4241-1
Alaves43 pts, La Liga, 14th4344+1
Real Madrid86 pts, La Liga, 2nd8685-1
Valencia49 pts, La Liga, 9th4948-1
Real Sociedad46 pts, La Liga, 10th4647+0

Sorted by the size of the disagreement. The level adjustment is why a club promoted from League One does not simply keep its 25/26 points total: a point won a division lower is worth less here, and the size of that discount is the measured one from the transfers table above, not a guess.

Where the minutes were played

Every club number on this page is built out of last season’s minutes, so it is worth seeing where those minutes come from. Across the division, the 574 registered players carry 7,690 full games of measured playing time from 2025/26, split like this:

Division those minutes were played inMinutesShare Level, in rating z
La Liga522,72475.5%+1.18
the Segunda147,47321.3%+0.35
Ligue 14,7680.7%+0.83
the Primeira Liga3,6600.5%+0.35
the Premier League3,3030.5%+1.46
Ligue 22,8690.4%+0.00
Serie A2,6670.4%+1.03
the Eerste Divisie1,5150.2%-0.36
the HNL1,4160.2%-0.21

Only divisions we hold match-level player data for appear here; minutes played outside them are in the “no measured season” count instead, which is 170 of the 574 registered players. Per-club splits are on each club card below.

Club by club

Barcelonaprojected 90 pts · band 83–97 · 2.13 scored and 0.79 conceded per game · Hansi Flick
squad age (by minutes) 24.4minutes from above 5%from below 3%last season’s minutes retained 88%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 92%, the Premier League 5%, the Bundesliga 3%.

We project 90 points (83–97), against a division average of 52. Last season: 94 points in La Liga, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: squad quality (+19), the club’s own last season (+11), attacking end (+6) points. Of the 24 men who played for them last season, 20 are still on the list. 8 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €1278.4m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+18.7
the club’s own last season+11.5
attacking end+6.4
ball-winning+0.9
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Hamza Abdelkarim Barcelona B · 2026-06-30
  • Anthony Gordon Newcastle · 2026-06-30
  • Karim Adeyemi Dortmund · 2026-07-22
  • Andres Cuenca Gijon · 2026-06-29
  • Aron Yaakobishvili Andorra · 2026-06-29
  • Hector Fort Elche · 2026-06-29
  • Ander Astralaga Granada CF · 2026-06-29
  • Alan Godoy Sabadell · 2026-06-29
  • Ansu Fati Monaco · 2026-06-29
  • Inaki Pena Elche · 2026-06-29
  • Marc-Andre ter Stegen Girona · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Andres Cuenca Como · 2026-06-29
  • Quim Junyent Casanova Almeria · 2026-06-29
  • Victor Barbera Valladolid · 2026-06-29
  • Ansu Fati Monaco · 2026-06-29
  • Inaki Pena Panathinaikos · 2026-06-29
  • Robert Lewandowski Chicago Fire · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Rodriguez Din. Zagreb · 2026-06-30
  • Diego Kochen Lyngby · 2026-07-02
  • Ander Astralaga Atl. Madrid B · 2026-07-21
  • Marcus Rashford Manchester Utd · 2026-06-29
  • Joao Cancelo Al Hilal · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Pau CubarsiDBarcelonaLa Liga2708381098
Yamal LamineFBarcelonaLa Liga2268281611100
Eric GarciaDBarcelonaLa Liga2730371294
PedriMBarcelonaLa Liga21073029100
Gerard MartinDBarcelonaLa Liga2140350094
Anthony GordonFNewcastlethe Premier League1741296297
Real Madridprojected 85 pts · band 78–92 · 2.03 scored and 0.83 conceded per game · Alvaro Arbeloa
squad age (by minutes) 25.7minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 100%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 100%.

We project 85 points (78–92), against a division average of 52. Last season: 86 points in La Liga, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+18), the club’s own last season (+9), attacking end (+5) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 25 are still on the list. 17 of the 41 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €1368.9m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+17.9
the club’s own last season+9.1
attacking end+4.9
ball-winning+0.7
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Bernardo Silva Manchester City · 2026-07-01
  • Marc Cucurella Chelsea · 2026-07-01
  • Ibrahima Konate Liverpool · 2026-07-01
  • Mario Martin Getafe · 2026-06-30
  • Endrick Lyon · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Mario Martin Getafe · 2026-07-01
  • Fran Garcia Betis · 2026-07-08

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Junior ViniciusMReal MadridLa Liga282536165100
Federico ValverdeMReal MadridLa Liga2746335899
Aurelien TchouameniDReal MadridLa Liga2622341098
Kylian MbappeFReal MadridLa Liga26043225598
Dean HuijsenDReal MadridLa Liga20372922100
Jude BellinghamMReal MadridLa Liga1917286498
Villarrealprojected 68 pts · band 61–75 · 1.65 scored and 1.09 conceded per game · Inigo Perez
squad age (by minutes) 25.9minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 79%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 100%.

We project 68 points (61–75), against a division average of 52. Last season: 72 points in La Liga, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+6), the club’s own last season (+5), attacking end (+4) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 8 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €305.2m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+6.2
the club’s own last season+5.0
attacking end+3.8
ball-winning+0.8
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Rodrigo Rocafort Sanluqueno · 2026-06-29
  • Toni Tamarit Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Fran Gil CE Europa · 2026-06-29
  • Thiago Fernandez Oviedo · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Requena Cordoba · 2026-06-29
  • Carlos Romero Espanyol · 2026-06-29
  • Thiago Ojeda Cultural Leonesa · 2026-06-29
  • Victor Moreno Cultural Leonesa · 2026-06-29
  • Ilias Akhomach Rayo Vallecano · 2026-06-29
  • Ramon Terrats Espanyol · 2026-06-29
  • Alex Fores Oviedo · 2026-06-29
  • Diego Conde Betis · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Yago Moreira Leiria · 2026-06-29
  • Juan Foyth no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Alfonso Pedraza Lazio · 2026-06-29
  • Toni Tamarit Alverca · 2026-07-02
  • Jean Valou Getafe · 2026-07-06
  • Ramon Terrats Getafe · 2026-07-06
  • Thiago Ojeda Valladolid · 2026-07-09
  • Victor Moreno Tenerife · 2026-07-09
  • Diego Conde Betis · 2026-07-20
  • Thiago Fernandez Levante · 2026-08-11
  • Sebastian Salazar Getafe B · 2026-06-29
  • Ivan Rodriguez Andorra · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Nicolas PepeMVillarrealLa Liga2396388897
Pape GueyeMVillarrealLa Liga2143335293
Santiago MourinoDVillarrealLa Liga2384321287
Georges MikautadzeFVillarrealLa Liga21173413692
Alberto MoleiroMVillarrealLa Liga24903810576
Santi ComesanaMVillarrealLa Liga2413353675
Atl. Madridprojected 66 pts · band 60–73 · 1.59 scored and 1.08 conceded per game · Diego Simeone
squad age (by minutes) 27.7minutes from above 0%from below 2%last season’s minutes retained 97%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 98%.

We project 66 points (60–73), against a division average of 52. Last season: 69 points in La Liga, finishing 4th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+8), the club’s own last season (+4), attacking end (+1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 24 are still on the list. 14 of the 39 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €606.7m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+7.8
the club’s own last season+4.1
attacking end+1.3
ball-winning+0.6
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Alejandro Grimaldo Bayer Leverkusen · 2026-07-01
  • Thomas Lemar Girona · 2026-06-30
  • Diego Bri Cordoba · 2026-06-30
  • Pablo Perez Mirandes · 2026-06-30
  • Carlos Martin Rayo Vallecano · 2026-06-30
  • Salim El Jebari Mirandes · 2026-06-30
  • Horatiu Moldovan Eyupspor · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Antoine Griezmann Orlando City · 2026-07-01
  • Clement Lenglet Benfica · 2026-07-01
  • Horatiu Moldovan Eyupspor · 2026-07-14
  • Nicolas Gonzalez Juventus · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
KokeMAtl. MadridLa Liga2236362294
Julian AlvarezFAtl. MadridLa Liga1902328494
Marcos LlorenteMAtl. MadridLa Liga2184300480
Giuliano SimeoneMAtl. MadridLa Liga2109334679
Marc PubillDAtl. MadridLa Liga1382351196
Pablo BarriosMAtl. MadridLa Liga1666231189
Betisprojected 65 pts · band 58–72 · 1.57 scored and 1.09 conceded per game · Manuel Pellegrini
squad age (by minutes) 27.7minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 84%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 100%.

We project 65 points (58–72), against a division average of 52. Last season: 60 points in La Liga, finishing 5th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+5), attacking end (+4), ball-winning (+2) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 8 of the 29 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €232.3m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+5.5
attacking end+4.0
ball-winning+1.7
the club’s own last season+1.4
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Facundo Bernal Fluminense · 2026-07-05
  • Fran Garcia Real Madrid · 2026-07-07
  • Diego Conde Villarreal · 2026-07-19
  • Lamine Gueye Ourense CF · 2026-06-29
  • Alex Perez Torino · 2026-06-29
  • Mateo Flores Arouca · 2026-06-29
  • Nobel Mendy Rayo Vallecano · 2026-06-29
  • Fernandes Guilherme Valladolid · 2026-06-29
  • Vasco Sousa Ponferradina · 2026-06-29
  • Gonzalo Petit Granada CF · 2026-06-29
  • Iker Losada Levante · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Carlos Reina Torreense · 2026-06-29
  • Mateo Flores Arouca · 2026-06-29
  • Nobel Mendy Rayo Vallecano · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Perez Guerrero Valladolid · 2026-06-29
  • Sergi Altimira Sporting CP · 2026-06-29
  • Chimy Avila no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Adrian no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Cedric Bakambu no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Ricardo Rodriguez no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Darling Bladi Heerenveen · 2026-07-01
  • Alex Perez Kalamata · 2026-07-04
  • Pau Lopez Andorra · 2026-07-15

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Pablo FornalsMBetisLa Liga2865389694
AntonyMBetisLa Liga2459328696
Abde EzzalzouliFBetisLa Liga22552910898
Cucho HernandezFBetisLa Liga25923211384
Marc BartraDBetisLa Liga1984301085
Diego LlorenteDBetisLa Liga1226291096
Celta Vigoprojected 56 pts · band 49–63 · 1.38 scored and 1.23 conceded per game · Claudio Giraldez
squad age (by minutes) 27.1minutes from above 0%from below 4%last season’s minutes retained 84%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 96%, Serie A 4%.

We project 56 points (49–63), against a division average of 52. Last season: 54 points in La Liga, finishing 6th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+2), attacking end (+1) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 5 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €174.1m across 31 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality+1.8
attacking end+1.3
the club’s own last season-0.3
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3
ball-winning+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Bernard Somuah Asante Kotoko · 2026-06-30
  • Javi Galan Osasuna · 2026-06-30
  • Aleix Febas Elche · 2026-06-30
  • Damian Rodriguez Racing Santander · 2026-06-29
  • Carlos Dotor Malaga · 2026-06-29
  • Manu Sanchez Levante · 2026-06-29
  • Carles Perez Aris · 2026-06-29
  • Unai Nunez Valencia · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Vicente no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Luis Bilbao no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Vicente Vidal Girona Marc no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Oscar Mingueza Crystal Palace · 2026-06-29
  • Joseph Aidoo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Mihailo Ristic no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Franco Cervi no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Bernard Somuah Asante Kotoko · 2026-06-29
  • Fernando Lopez Wolves · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Aleix FebasMElcheLa Liga3166362294
Marcos AlonsoDCelta VigoLa Liga2770321093
Ilaix MoribaMCelta VigoLa Liga2495362365
Alvaro NunezDElcheLa Liga1652190286
Sergio CarreiraMCelta VigoLa Liga2693372157
Javier RodriguezDCelta VigoLa Liga2561360160
Rayo Vallecanoprojected 52 pts · band 45–59 · 1.26 scored and 1.24 conceded per game · Benat San Jose
squad age (by minutes) 29.4minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 88%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 100%.

We project 52 points (45–59), against a division average of 52. Last season: 50 points in La Liga, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1), squad quality (+1) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-2), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 19 are still on the list. 4 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €103.5m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-1.5
ball-winning+1.2
attacking end-0.8
squad quality+0.7
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Nobel Mendy Betis · 2026-06-30
  • Jozhua Vertrouwd Castellon · 2026-06-30
  • Etienne Eto'o Villarreal · 2026-06-29
  • Pelayo Fernandez Cadiz CF · 2026-06-29
  • Miguel Morro Leixoes · 2026-06-29
  • Raul de Tomas Al Wakra · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Unai Sabroso Lorenzo Cordoba · 2026-06-29
  • Miguel Morro no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Abdul Mumin no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Felipe Luiz no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Pacha Racing Club · 2026-06-29
  • Oscar Trejo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Nobel Mendy Betis · 2026-06-29
  • Ilias Akhomach Villarreal · 2026-06-29
  • Carlos Martin Atl. Madrid · 2026-06-29
  • Jozhua Vertrouwd Castellon · 2026-06-29
  • Gerard Gumbau Granada CF · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Florian LejeuneDRayo VallecanoLa Liga3231372195
Andrei RatiuDRayo VallecanoLa Liga2810350483
Jorge de FrutosMRayo VallecanoLa Liga24833710182
Pathe CissMRayo VallecanoLa Liga2003292188
Pep ChavarriaDRayo VallecanoLa Liga2681371263
Oscar ValentinMRayo VallecanoLa Liga2113371075
Elcheprojected 49 pts · band 42–56 · 1.21 scored and 1.27 conceded per game · Martin Anselmi
squad age (by minutes) 27.0minutes from above 0%from below 16%last season’s minutes retained 56%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 84%, the Segunda 16%.

We project 49 points (42–56), against a division average of 52. Last season: 43 points in La Liga, finishing 13th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-4), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 14 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €68.6m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-3.6
attacking end-1.1
ball-winning+0.8
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3
squad quality+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Sangare Buba AS Roma · 2026-06-30
  • Victor Chust Cadiz CF · 2026-06-30
  • Gonzalo Villar Din. Zagreb · 2026-06-30
  • Diego Sanchez Elche · 2026-07-16
  • Matia Barzic Cultural Leonesa · 2026-06-29
  • Milud Nordin CF Talavera · 2026-06-29
  • Ali Houary Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Luis Roldan Torremolinos · 2026-06-29
  • Abiel Osorio Defensa y Justicia · 2026-06-29
  • Rafael Nunez Eldense · 2026-06-29
  • Bambo Diaby Granada CF · 2026-06-29
  • Axel Werner Aldosivi · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Silva Andre FC Porto · 2026-06-29
  • Aleix Febas Celta Vigo · 2026-06-29
  • Leo Petrot Anderlecht · 2026-06-30
  • Axel Werner Rosario Central · 2026-07-11
  • Alvaro Rodriguez Bournemouth · 2026-07-12
  • Sangare Buba AS Roma · 2026-06-29
  • Hector Fort Barcelona · 2026-06-29
  • Adria Pedrosa Sevilla · 2026-06-29
  • Victor Chust Cadiz CF · 2026-06-29
  • Gonzalo Villar Din. Zagreb · 2026-06-29
  • Rafa Mir Sevilla · 2026-06-29
  • Inaki Pena Barcelona · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
German ValeraDElcheLa Liga2874364584
David AffengruberDElcheLa Liga2953361182
Matias DituroGElcheLa Liga1980380084
Victor ChustDElcheLa Liga2165341077
Pedro BigasDElcheLa Liga2068341378
Marc AguadoMElcheLa Liga2522351257
Valenciaprojected 48 pts · band 42–55 · 1.18 scored and 1.30 conceded per game · Carlos Corberan
squad age (by minutes) 27.8minutes from above 0%from below 9%last season’s minutes retained 71%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 91%, the Primeira Liga 9%.

We project 48 points (42–55), against a division average of 52. Last season: 49 points in La Liga, finishing 9th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-2), the club’s own last season (-2), attacking end (-1) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 11 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €146.2m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-2.0
the club’s own last season-1.8
attacking end-1.4
ball-winning+1.0
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Victor Fernandez Levante · 2026-06-30
  • Justin De Haas Famalicao · 2026-06-30
  • Ryunosuke Sato FC Tokyo · 2026-07-06
  • Aliou Dieng Al Ahly · 2026-07-06
  • Iker Cordoba Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Ismael Santana Vera UD Logrones · 2026-06-29
  • Pablo Lopez Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Alberto Mari Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Cenk Ozkacar FC Koln · 2026-06-29
  • Sergi Canos Valladolid · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Ruben Munoz de Morales no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Diego Lopez no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Eray Comert no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Thierry Rendall Venezia · 2026-06-29
  • Saravia Renzo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Baptiste Santamaria PAOK · 2026-07-11
  • Cenk Ozkacar Trabzonspor · 2026-07-16
  • Victor Fernandez Levante · 2026-06-29
  • Julen Agirrezabala Ath Bilbao · 2026-06-29
  • Lucas Beltran Fiorentina · 2026-06-29
  • Largie Ramazani Leeds · 2026-06-29
  • Unai Nunez Celta Vigo · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
PepeluMValenciaLa Liga2232382086
Justin De HaasDFamalicaothe Primeira Liga2700305093
Luis RiojaDValenciaLa Liga2636373667
Guido RodriguezMValenciaLa Liga1308164096
Javi GuerraMValenciaLa Liga2086384661
Arnaut DanjumaFValenciaLa Liga1627373268
Sevillaprojected 47 pts · band 40–54 · 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded per game · Luis Garcia Plaza
squad age (by minutes) 26.2minutes from above 0%from below 7%last season’s minutes retained 73%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 93%, Ligue 1 7%.

We project 47 points (40–54), against a division average of 52. Last season: 43 points in La Liga, finishing 15th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2), attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), the club’s own last season (-4) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 10 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €154.7m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-4.1
the club’s own last season-3.6
ball-winning+1.6
attacking end+0.9
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Patrik Mercado Ind. del Valle · 2026-06-30
  • Arouna Sangante Le Havre · 2026-06-30
  • Antonio Iglesias Sanchez Juan Getafe · 2026-06-30
  • Jon Guridi Alaves · 2026-06-30
  • Adria Pedrosa Elche · 2026-06-29
  • Alfonso Gonzalez Villarreal · 2026-06-29
  • Rafa Mir Elche · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Nicolas Guilen no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Adnan Januzaj no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Orjan Nyland no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Nemanja Gudelj no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Cesar Azpilicueta no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Alexis Sanchez no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Tanguy Nianzou Lille · 2026-07-16
  • Akor Adams Venezia · 2026-07-22
  • Batista Mendy Trabzonspor · 2026-06-29
  • Neal Maupay Marseille · 2026-06-29
  • Odysseas Vlachodimos Newcastle · 2027-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Antonio Iglesias Sanchez JuanDGetafeLa Liga3189381275
Kike SalasDSevillaLa Liga2208342087
Lucien AgoumeMSevillaLa Liga2693351363
Akor AdamsFSevillaLa Liga20703310365
CastrinDSevillaLa Liga1281321088
Angel Carmona JoseDSevillaLa Liga2564361348
Osasunaprojected 47 pts · band 40–54 · 1.21 scored and 1.35 conceded per game · Miguel Ramis Luis
squad age (by minutes) 29.0minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 86%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 100%.

We project 47 points (40–54), against a division average of 52. Last season: 42 points in La Liga, finishing 16th. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-4), squad quality (-2), ball-winning (-1) points. Of the 22 men who played for them last season, 18 are still on the list. 5 of the 22 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €65.3m across 19 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
the club’s own last season-3.9
squad quality-1.5
ball-winning-0.7
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3
attacking end+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Sheraldo Becker Mainz · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Victor Munoz Liverpool · 2026-06-29
  • Javi Galan Celta Vigo · 2026-06-29
  • Sheraldo Becker Mainz · 2026-06-29
  • Juan Cruz no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Manu Rico Huesca · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Alejandro CatenaDOsasunaLa Liga3073353278
Ante BudimirFOsasunaLa Liga29533717076
Jon MoncayolaMOsasunaLa Liga3028360467
Flavien BoyomoDOsasunaLa Liga2545321258
Ruben GarciaMOsasunaLa Liga2247352565
Aimar OrozMOsasunaLa Liga2152310257
Real Sociedadprojected 47 pts · band 40–53 · 1.20 scored and 1.38 conceded per game · Pellegrino Matarazzo
squad age (by minutes) 24.4minutes from above 0%from below 33%last season’s minutes retained 87%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 67%, the Segunda 33%.

We project 47 points (40–53), against a division average of 52. Last season: 46 points in La Liga, finishing 10th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), the club’s own last season (-3) points. Of the 32 men who played for them last season, 25 are still on the list. 5 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 26. Squad value on our player feed: €246.2m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-4.5
the club’s own last season-2.7
attacking end+1.2
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3
ball-winning-0.2

In since 1 May

  • Kazunari Kita Kyoto · 2026-06-30
  • Iker Ropero Barakaldo · 2026-06-29
  • Mikel Goti Lopez Cordoba · 2026-06-29
  • Javi Lopez Oviedo · 2026-06-29
  • Jon Pacheco Alaves · 2026-06-29
  • Carlos Fernandez Mirandes · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Jakes Gorosabel no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Zac Shuaib Saarbrucken · 2026-06-29
  • Egoitz Arana Gijon · 2026-06-29
  • Aritz Elustondo PAOK · 2026-06-29
  • Alberto Dadie Izagirre Burgos CF · 2026-07-03
  • Dario Ramirez Gimnastic · 2026-07-07
  • Brais Mendez Columbus Crew · 2026-07-11
  • Mikel Rodriguez Alaves · 2026-07-14
  • Kazunari Kita Kyoto · 2026-06-29
  • Wesley Al Nassr · 2026-06-29
  • Duje Caleta-Car Lyon · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Mikel OyarzabalMReal SociedadLa Liga27143515492
Sergio GomezDReal SociedadLa Liga2705360676
Carlos SolerMReal SociedadLa Liga2332344385
Luken BeitiaDReal Sociedad Bthe Segunda2328271196
Jon MartinDReal SociedadLa Liga2250332070
Goncalo GuedesFReal SociedadLa Liga1839328482
Alavesprojected 44 pts · band 37–51 · 1.10 scored and 1.39 conceded per game · Quique Sanchez Flores
squad age (by minutes) 28.0minutes from above 0%from below 5%last season’s minutes retained 78%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 95%, the HNL 5%.

We project 44 points (37–51), against a division average of 52. Last season: 43 points in La Liga, finishing 14th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-5), the club’s own last season (-4), minutes from the Championship or above (-1) points. Of the 22 men who played for them last season, 15 are still on the list. 6 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €63.2m across 19 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-5.1
the club’s own last season-3.6
ball-winning+1.3
minutes from the Championship or above-1.1
attacking end+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Ville Koski Istra 1961 · 2026-06-30
  • Mikel Rodriguez Real Sociedad · 2026-07-15
  • Julen Lartitegi Arenas Getxo · 2026-06-29
  • Ander Sanchez Aurrera de Vitoria · 2026-06-29
  • Adrian Pica Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Mamadou Diallo Selu Cultural Leonesa · 2026-06-29
  • Jose de Leon Barakaldo · 2026-06-29
  • Gustavo Albarracin Istra 1961 · 2026-06-29
  • Tomas Mendes Alverca · 2026-06-29
  • Unai Ropero Hercules · 2026-06-29
  • Hugo Novoa Ramos Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Moussa Diarra Anderlecht · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Jon Guridi Sevilla · 2026-06-29
  • Asier Villalibre Racing Santander · 2026-06-29
  • Raul Fernandez Leganes · 2026-06-29
  • Egoitz Munoz Cordoba · 2026-06-30
  • Victor Parada Spartak Moscow · 2026-07-12
  • Adrian Pica Penafiel · 2026-07-13
  • Calebe Fortaleza · 2026-06-29
  • Ibrahim Diabate GAIS · 2026-06-29
  • Jon Pacheco Real Sociedad · 2026-06-29
  • Ville Koski Istra 1961 · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Toni MartinezFAlavesLa Liga27253814394
Antonio BlancoMAlavesLa Liga3116372376
Nahuel TenagliaDAlavesLa Liga3239382068
Lucas BoyeFAlavesLa Liga19592911163
Otto JonnyDAlavesLa Liga2998370040
Pablo IbanezMAlavesLa Liga2253371143
Ath Bilbaoprojected 43 pts · band 36–50 · 1.08 scored and 1.39 conceded per game · Edin Terzic
squad age (by minutes) 27.3minutes from above 0%from below 13%last season’s minutes retained 95%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 87%, the Segunda 13%.

We project 43 points (36–50), against a division average of 52. Last season: 45 points in La Liga, finishing 12th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-5), the club’s own last season (-3), attacking end (-2) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 22 are still on the list. 10 of the 34 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €240.5m across 30 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-5.0
the club’s own last season-3.0
attacking end-1.7
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3
ball-winning+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Iker Varela Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Aingeru Olabarrieta Andorra · 2026-06-29
  • Peio Canales Racing Santander · 2026-06-29
  • Oier Gastesi Arenas Getxo · 2026-06-29
  • Hugo Rincon Girona · 2026-06-29
  • Benat Gerenabarrena Castellon · 2026-06-29
  • Julen Agirrezabala Valencia · 2026-06-29
  • Alvaro Djalo Al-Gharafa · 2026-06-29
  • Unai Vencedor Levante · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Inigo Lekue no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jon De Luis Kifisia · 2026-07-02
  • Ibon Sanchez Cadiz CF · 2026-07-05
  • Aimar Dunabeitia Gijon · 2026-07-06
  • Unai Gomez Udinese · 2026-07-06
  • Ibai Sanz Cordoba · 2026-07-06
  • Eder Garcia Cordoba · 2026-07-07
  • Izeta Cadiz CF · 2026-07-09
  • Iker Alday Eibar · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Yuri BerchicheDAth BilbaoLa Liga2709340692
Peio CanalesMRacing Santanderthe Segunda2864356993
Inigo Ruiz de GalarretaMAth BilbaoLa Liga2231351287
Nico WilliamsFAth BilbaoLa Liga1687256393
Benat GerenabarrenaMCastellonthe Segunda2608392188
Aymeric LaporteDAth BilbaoLa Liga2060270173
Racing Santanderprojected 42 pts · band 35–49 · 1.16 scored and 1.53 conceded per game · Jose Lopez
squad age (by minutes) 24.8minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 63%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Segunda 100%.

We project 42 points (35–49), against a division average of 52. Last season: 82 points in the Segunda, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-5), ball-winning (-5), attacking end (-2) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 14 are still on the list. 10 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 14. Squad value on our player feed: €70.3m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-5.5
ball-winning-4.6
attacking end-2.3
the club’s own last season+1.4
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Belal Attia Al Ahly · 2026-06-30
  • Facundo Gonzalez Juventus · 2026-06-30
  • Asier Villalibre Alaves · 2026-06-30
  • Sergio Canales Monterrey · 2026-06-30
  • Yassir Zabiri Rennes · 2026-07-29
  • Neco Celorio Lugo · 2026-06-29
  • Yeray Cabanzon Andorra · 2026-06-29
  • Clement Michelin Valladolid · 2026-06-29
  • Aritz Aldasoro Oviedo · 2027-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Neco Celorio no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Clement Michelin Valladolid · 2026-06-29
  • Marco Sangalli no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jaime Mata no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Javier Castro Cadiz CF · 2026-07-04
  • Jokin Ezkieta Cadiz CF · 2026-07-04
  • Mario Garcia Widzew Lodz · 2026-07-08
  • Aritz Aldasoro Oviedo · 2026-07-08
  • Manex Lozano Basconia · 2026-06-29
  • Peio Canales Ath Bilbao · 2026-06-29
  • Damian Rodriguez Celta Vigo · 2026-06-29
  • Facundo Gonzalez Juventus · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Inigo VicenteMRacing Santanderthe Segunda328441920100
Andres MartinMRacing Santanderthe Segunda34614123999
Gustavo PuertaMRacing Santanderthe Segunda2678323195
Asier VillalibreFRacing Santanderthe Segunda13403316297
Yeray CabanzonMAndorrathe Segunda868212495
ManuDRacing Santanderthe Segunda1969421266
Levanteprojected 41 pts · band 34–48 · 1.16 scored and 1.53 conceded per game · Luis Castro
squad age (by minutes) 25.9minutes from above 0%from below 31%last season’s minutes retained 60%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 69%, Ligue 2 9%, Ligue 1 8%, the Segunda 7%.

We project 41 points (34–48), against a division average of 52. Last season: 41 points in La Liga, finishing 18th. What pulls them down: minutes from the Championship or above (-4), the club’s own last season (-4), ball-winning (-2) points. Of the 29 men who played for them last season, 17 are still on the list. 7 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €112.1m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
minutes from the Championship or above-4.5
the club’s own last season-3.8
ball-winning-2.3
squad quality-1.4
attacking end+0.4

In since 1 May

  • Enzo Bardeli Dunkerque · 2026-06-30
  • Aissa Mandi Lille · 2026-07-15
  • Thiago Fernandez Villarreal · 2026-08-11
  • Jorge Cabello Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Victor Fernandez Valencia · 2026-06-29
  • Edgar Alcaniz FC Cartagena SAD · 2026-06-29
  • Grande Xavi Maritimo · 2026-06-29
  • Daniel Martin Huesca · 2026-06-29
  • Hugo Redon Teruel · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Cayetano Romero no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Victor Fernandez Valencia · 2026-06-29
  • Pablo Martinez Andres no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Diego Varela Pampin no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Jose Morales no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Mathew Ryan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Matias Moreno Fiorentina · 2026-06-29
  • Enrique Herrero Real Madrid C · 2026-06-29
  • Alan Matturro Genoa · 2026-06-29
  • Ugo Raghouber Lille · 2026-06-29
  • Iker Losada Betis · 2026-06-29
  • Unai Vencedor Ath Bilbao · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Aissa MandiDLilleLigue 12435311098
DelaDLevanteLa Liga2693333190
Ivan RomeroFLevanteLa Liga2287347182
Enzo BardeliMDunkerqueLigue 22869349692
Carlos AlvarezMLevanteLa Liga1890303171
Kervin ArriagaMLevanteLa Liga1454303380
Espanyolprojected 40 pts · band 33–47 · 0.98 scored and 1.43 conceded per game · Manolo Gonzalez
squad age (by minutes) 26.4minutes from above 4%from below 31%last season’s minutes retained 78%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 66%, the Segunda 29%, the Premier League 4%.

We project 40 points (33–47), against a division average of 52. Last season: 46 points in La Liga, finishing 11th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-7), attacking end (-4), the club’s own last season (-3) points. Of the 23 men who played for them last season, 16 are still on the list. 7 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €153.5m across 31 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-6.7
attacking end-3.8
the club’s own last season-2.7
ball-winning+0.4
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Alex Calatrava Castellon · 2026-07-01
  • Quilindschy Hartman Burnley · 2026-07-06
  • Moscardo Gabriel PSG · 2026-07-07
  • Roger Hinojo Cultural Leonesa · 2026-06-29
  • Rafel Bauza Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Marcos Fernandez Sanchez Ceuta · 2026-06-29
  • Javier Hernandez Mirandes · 2026-06-29
  • Justin Smith Gijon · 2026-06-29
  • Omar Sadik Pau FC · 2026-06-29
  • Hugo Perez Gimnastic · 2026-06-29
  • Pablo Ramon Racing Santander · 2026-06-29
  • Jose Gragera Dep. A Coruna · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Miguel Londono no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Hugo Perez Torreense · 2026-06-29
  • Justin Smith Eldense · 2026-07-06
  • Omar Sadik Ceuta · 2026-07-07
  • Lluc Castell Burnley · 2026-07-10
  • Jose Catala Sabadell · 2026-07-12
  • Fernando Calero Malaga · 2026-07-12
  • Carlos Romero Villarreal · 2026-06-29
  • Ramon Terrats Villarreal · 2026-06-29
  • Cyril Ngonge Napoli · 2026-06-29
  • Charles Pickel Cremonese · 2026-06-29
  • Quilindschy Hartman Burnley · 2027-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Alex CalatravaFCastellonthe Segunda33994013899
ExpositoMEspanyolLa Liga2542371692
Marko DmitrovicGEspanyolLa Liga3330380065
Leandro CabreraDEspanyolLa Liga3330373061
Tyrhys DolanFEspanyolLa Liga2431362569
Omar El HilaliDEspanyolLa Liga2828370253
Malagaprojected 39 pts · band 32–46 · 1.03 scored and 1.48 conceded per game · Juan Funes
squad age (by minutes) 25.4minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 99%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Segunda 100%.

We project 39 points (32–46), against a division average of 52. Last season: 73 points in the Segunda, finishing 4th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-5), attacking end (-5), ball-winning (-2) points. Of the 27 men who played for them last season, 25 are still on the list. 5 of the 29 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €17.5m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-5.3
attacking end-4.8
ball-winning-2.3
the club’s own last season-1.0
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • nothing recorded

Out since 1 May

  • Carlos Dotor Celta Vigo · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
David LarrubiaMMalagathe Segunda32603910398
Diego MurilloDMalagathe Segunda3114392098
ChupeFMalagathe Segunda26584024594
Carlos PugaDMalagathe Segunda2589340193
Daniel LorenzoMMalagathe Segunda2526374192
Joaquin MunozMMalagathe Segunda2478395685
Dep. A Corunaprojected 39 pts · band 32–46 · 1.04 scored and 1.54 conceded per game · Antonio Hidalgo
squad age (by minutes) 26.6minutes from above 0%from below 100%last season’s minutes retained 97%

Last season those minutes were played in: the Segunda 100%.

We project 39 points (32–46), against a division average of 52. Last season: 77 points in the Segunda, finishing 2nd. What pulls them down: squad quality (-8), attacking end (-3), ball-winning (-3) points. Of the 25 men who played for them last season, 23 are still on the list. 8 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €54.9m across 29 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-7.9
attacking end-3.1
ball-winning-3.0
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3
the club’s own last season+0.1

In since 1 May

  • Mohamed Bouldini Granada CF · 2026-06-30
  • Luis Chacon Cultural Leonesa · 2026-06-30
  • Alex Petxa Andorra · 2026-06-30

Out since 1 May

  • Stoichkov Granada CF · 2026-06-30
  • Jose Gragera Espanyol · 2026-06-30
  • Samuele Mulattieri Sassuolo · 2026-06-30

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
Mario SorianoMDep. A Corunathe Segunda3613426897
Yeremay HernandezFDep. A Corunathe Segunda300239111096
Adria AltimiraDDep. A Corunathe Segunda1883221593
Miguel LoureiroDDep. A Corunathe Segunda3298390077
Luismi CruzMDep. A Corunathe Segunda24794031084
Lucas NoubiDDep. A Corunathe Segunda2067371084
Getafeprojected 38 pts · band 31–44 · 0.87 scored and 1.45 conceded per game · Jose Bordalas Jimenez
squad age (by minutes) 28.8minutes from above 0%from below 0%last season’s minutes retained 49%

Last season those minutes were played in: La Liga 100%.

We project 38 points (31–44), against a division average of 52. Last season: 51 points in La Liga, finishing 7th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-10), attacking end (-5), the club’s own last season (-1) points. Of the 26 men who played for them last season, 12 are still on the list. 8 of the 21 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 13. Squad value on our player feed: €67.8m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.

Points, against the division average

Where it comes fromPts
squad quality-9.8
attacking end-5.5
ball-winning+1.5
the club’s own last season-1.2
minutes from the Championship or above+0.3

In since 1 May

  • Sebastian Boselli River Plate · 2026-06-30
  • Mario Martin Real Madrid · 2026-06-30
  • Martin Satriano Lyon · 2026-06-30
  • Zaid Romero Club Brugge KV · 2026-06-30
  • Jean Valou Villarreal · 2026-07-06
  • Ramon Terrats Villarreal · 2026-07-07
  • Andres Garcia Aston Villa · 2026-07-15
  • Coba da Costa Anderlecht · 2026-05-30
  • Christantus Uche Crystal Palace · 2026-06-29
  • Federico Peter Valladolid · 2026-06-29
  • Yvan Neyou Al Okhdood · 2026-06-29
  • Juan Berrocal Gonzalez Atlanta Utd · 2026-06-29

Out since 1 May

  • Christantus Uche no club recorded · 2026-06-29
  • Hugo Solozabal Andorra · 2026-06-29
  • Antonio Iglesias Sanchez Juan Sevilla · 2026-06-29
  • Luis Milla Como · 2026-07-01
  • Mauro Arambarri River Plate · 2026-07-01
  • Damian Caceres Cordoba · 2026-07-03
  • Federico Peter Gornik Zabrze · 2026-07-09
  • Coba da Costa Al Kholood · 2026-07-20
  • Adrian Liso Zaragoza · 2026-06-29
  • Alejandro Mestanza Rayo Majadahonda · 2026-06-29
  • Sebastian Boselli River Plate · 2026-06-29
  • Mario Martin Real Madrid · 2026-06-29

The six the model leans on most

PlayerPosWhere in 2025/26DivisionMins AppsGARating pct
David SoriaGGetafeLa Liga3420380068
Zaid RomeroDGetafeLa Liga1350151089
Martin SatrianoFGetafeLa Liga1604186178
Abdel AbqarDGetafeLa Liga1440230253
Borja MayoralFGetafeLa Liga1068214160
DjeneDGetafeLa Liga2585340025
What this does not know. Squads are as our club feed returned them on 2026-07-28, and the window is still open — a signing made after that is missing, and the model would rate him if he were there. 170 of the 574 registered players have no measured season in our data at all: academy graduates and men signed from divisions we do not cover. They are simply left out of their club’s number rather than guessed at — which is its own kind of blindness, and the count is printed on every club card. We tried making the count of them an input: it improved the backtest and we dropped it anyway, because in the backtest a squad is the men who played and today it is the men a club has registered, so clubs with large academies were being marked down for paperwork. Ratings come from our match-level player records, which start to thin out below the fourth tier. The model has no transfer fees, no injuries, no coaches, no budgets and no pre-season, and it treats last season’s minutes as the guide to this season’s — so a club that has just changed manager and bought a first eleven is exactly where it will be most wrong. It is a projection of a season, not a guide to a match, and it is not a betting product.

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