League One 2026/27, matchday one · 15 August 2026 ·
what the twelve matches are worth, and the two clubs whose numbers and points disagree most.
Updated 17 August 2026, 09:29 UTC.
Every table you will read this week is built on one match. So I measured what
one match has actually been worth. Across 794 club-seasons in the EFL divisions and the
Premier League, the opening round correlates with points per game in the rest of that season at
+0.26. Last season's table correlates at +0.46. One round explains 6.8 per cent
of what follows; last season explains 21.3. After ninety minutes, last year is three times
the guide that yesterday is.
from match one
correlation with rest of season
explains
goal difference
+0.260
6.8%
deserved-goal difference
+0.259
6.7%
result (points won)
+0.219
4.8%
own shots on target
+0.199
4.0%
last season, for comparison
+0.462
21.3%
A result against our own number. After a single match our deserved
goals are not better than plain goal difference (+0.259 against +0.260). Over a full
season they are. After one match they are not, and there is no reason to pretend otherwise.
The same archive says when this flips. Measured over 1,221 club-seasons, this season's
own results only overtake last season as a description of a club at the ninth match
(r 0.421 against 0.431 at match eight). Until then a table is a scoreboard, not a ranking.
So who is being misread
If the result is 6.8 per cent of the story, the useful question is not who won but who made
the most and took the least. That is the ordering below: deserved goals are what the
shots on target were worth, and luck is the actual goal margin minus the deserved one.
Positive luck means a club took more than it made.
club
pts
score
deserved
luck
Barnsley
0
0–1
2.55–0.96
-2.59
Blackpool
1
1–1
2.23–1.28
-0.95
Sheffield Wed
3
2–1
1.91–0.96
+0.05
Huddersfield
3
3–0
1.28–0.64
+2.36
Stevenage
1
1–1
0.96–0.64
-0.32
MK Dons
1
2–2
1.59–1.28
-0.31
Bradford City
3
2–0
1.59–1.28
+1.69
Notts County
1
1–1
0.64–0.64
0.00
Leicester
1
1–1
0.64–0.64
0.00
Reading
0
3–4
1.28–1.28
-1.00
Luton
3
4–3
1.28–1.28
+1.00
Cambridge Utd
3
3–2
1.59–1.59
+1.00
Wigan
0
2–3
1.59–1.59
-1.00
Mansfield
3
2–1
1.28–1.28
+1.00
Doncaster
0
1–2
1.28–1.28
-1.00
Plymouth
0
1–3
1.28–1.28
-2.00
Stockport County
3
3–1
1.28–1.28
+2.00
Oxford Utd
1
2–2
1.28–1.59
+0.31
Peterborough
0
0–2
1.28–1.59
-1.69
Burton
1
1–1
0.64–0.96
+0.32
AFC Wimbledon
0
0–3
0.64–1.28
-2.36
Wycombe
1
1–1
1.28–2.23
+0.95
Leyton Orient
0
1–2
0.96–1.91
-0.05
Bromley
3
1–0
0.96–2.55
+2.59
Barnsley deserved the most in the round and took nothing. Bromley deserved the least and
took three points. They played each other. Barnsley had eight shots on target to three,
22 shots to 12, twelve corners to two and 67 per cent of the ball, and lost to a substitute who
had been on the pitch for two minutes. On shots on target that is 2.55 deserved goals to 0.96 —
a gap of 2.59 in both directions, the largest of the twelve matches.
That is the one number here with a measured future. Over 70 club-seasons, scoring
above what you create predicts a fall in points the following season (t = −4.57),
while the underlying play carries forward (t = +7.15). Play transfers; luck comes back.
Six clubs finished the round on a deserved margin of exactly zero — Reading and Luton,
Cambridge and Wigan, Mansfield and Doncaster, Stockport and Plymouth, Notts County and
Leicester. Twelve points were handed out in matches where the shots on target could not
separate the two sides. Four shots on target each is not enough to tell anybody apart.
Sheffield Wednesday are the only side that both won and clearly deserved it
(1.91 to 0.96, luck +0.04). Of the twelve winners, the only one who was given nothing.
Three results that read differently than they look
Huddersfield 3–0 was not a rout. It came from 1.28 deserved goals to 0.64, with
ten men from the 29th minute and 32 approaches to the box against 57. Plymouth 1–3 was
not a collapse — the two sides were dead level on deserved goals. And Bromley, promoted
from the National League, won with three shots on target against eight.
Reading led 3–1 at the break and lost
In this archive that is 149 League One cases of a side three or more up and leading at
half-time, and Reading is the only one to lose. Across all divisions, a 3–1 half-time lead
happens 2,017 times and is lost 40 times — two per cent. Jack Marriott scored a hat-trick in the
defeat; of 1,436 hat-tricks in the archive, 30 ended in one. Deserved goals in that match
were level at 1.28 apiece, and the seven goals came from eight shots on target — something that
has happened twice in 3,872 League One matches with shot data.
The round itself was normal
98 shots on target is 4.08 per side, against a long-run League One average of
4.03. The chances were ordinary. The finishing was not: 38.8 per cent went
in against a League One average of 32.6 (median round 32.9, quartiles 29.4–35.8).
Across 95 earlier days with exactly twelve matches in this division, nine were this sharp
— roughly one round in eleven. Worth noting, not a sensation.
Correction, 16 August. This page first said the League One average was
27.7%. It is 32.6%. The old figure came from dividing total goals by total shots on
target across seasons where the goals column is empty (2016–2018) and the shots column is
not — so those seasons counted as zero goals. The empirical claim is unaffected: nine of 95
comparable days were this sharp either way. The baseline was overstated and is corrected here.
4 home wins · 4 draws · 4 away wins · 38 goals,
17 of them before half-time · 225 shots off target · 1161 approaches to
the box · 117 corners · 38 yellow cards, 2 red · 82,650
watching across 8 of the 12 grounds.
Possession said nothing again: the side with more of the ball won four, drew four and lost
four. Leicester had 69 per cent and drew, Barnsley 67 and lost, Wigan 66 and lost, AFC Wimbledon
61 with an extra man from the 29th minute and lost 0–3. Measured over 6,644 matches in this
division, possession and goals scored correlate at r = −0.03. The bench decided five of the
twelve: seven goals came from substitutes, three in the last ten minutes or in stoppage time.
How this is measured, and what it cannot do
Deserved goals are not expected goals. They are our own number: 0.319
goals per shot on target, measured over 6,644 League One club-matches. Deliberately simple, and
on our data it tracks goals better (r = 0.58) than the expected-goals figure we receive for this
division (r = 0.52). It knows nothing about where a shot was taken from.
What is missing. No expected goals, no shot location and no player
ratings exist for League One this round: the detailed feed for this division has been frozen
since 14 August, the day before kick-off, while the Championship has all of it. The source also
does not split shots, attacks or possession by half, so the half tables below carry goals and
corners for every match and shots only for the one match whose minute feed includes them.
Nothing is estimated.
One fixture id returned the wrong match. The call for Bradford
City–Peterborough came back as Bolton–Preston. Ids in this feed are not unique, so
every response is checked against the club names we stored and a mismatch is thrown away. Left
in, this round would have read 39 goals at 41.1 per cent instead of 38 at
38.8.
Every match, if you want to check
The scorelines and the raw match statistics below are on any live-score site.
They are here so every number above can be traced back to the match it came from.
62'Jayden Joseph (Leicester) (assist S. Braybrooke)· 20 · defender
81'Conor Grant (Notts County) · 24 · midfielder · €245k · on at 67'
Points shared on 0.64 deserved goals to 0.64. Conversion: 2 goals from 4 shots on target (50.0%), against a League One average of 32.6%. Leicester held 69% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.03.
90+5'Ciaron Brown (Oxford Utd) (assist G. O'Donkor)· 28 · defender · €1500k
Points shared on 1.28 deserved goals to 1.59. Conversion: 4 goals from 9 shots on target (44.4%), against a League One average of 32.6%. Oxford Utd held 63% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.03.
90+6'Gideon Kodua (Luton) (assist J. Richards)· 21 · forward · €285k · on at 81'
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.28 deserved goals to 1.28) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Conversion: 7 goals from 8 shots on target (87.5%), against a League One average of 32.6%.
The feed does not split shots, attacks or possession by half for this match, so only goals and corners are shown above. Nothing is estimated.
Goals
70'Victor Adeboyejo (Bromley) (assist E. Archer)· 28 · forward · €550k · on at 68'
Barnsley deserved more (2.55 to 0.96) and did not win it. Conversion: 1 goals from 11 shots on target (9.1%), against a League One average of 32.6%. Barnsley held 67% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.03.
75'Nick Powell (Bradford City) (assist A. Phillips)· 32 · forward · €140k · on at 73'
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.59 deserved goals to 1.28) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Conversion: 2 goals from 9 shots on target (22.2%), against a League One average of 32.6%.
73'A. Higgins (Wigan) (assist D. Costelloe)· on at 60'
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.59 deserved goals to 1.59) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Conversion: 5 goals from 10 shots on target (50.0%), against a League One average of 32.6%. Wigan held 66% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.03.
78'Bojan Radulovic (Huddersfield) (assist R. Balker)· 26 · forward · €745k · on at 63'
Huddersfield won it and deserved it (1.28 to 0.64). Conversion: 3 goals from 6 shots on target (50.0%), against a League One average of 32.6%. AFC Wimbledon held 61% of the ball — in this division possession and goals correlate at r = −0.03.
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.28 deserved goals to 1.28) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Conversion: 3 goals from 8 shots on target (37.5%), against a League One average of 32.6%.
79'Xavier Amaechi (Plymouth) · 25 · forward · €495k · on at 57'
On shots on target the two sides were level (1.28 deserved goals to 1.28) and the scoreline was not. Finishing decided this, not chance creation. Conversion: 4 goals from 8 shots on target (50.0%), against a League One average of 32.6%.