League One 2026/27: a projection built from the players, club by club
GoalSoon · built 12 August 2026 · every figure is our own
calculation
24 clubs, 660 players currently registered with them,
and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from
what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and
published: ±12 points.
The idea
A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection
built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every
player registered with the 24 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.
The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in
another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on
8,624 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in
consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale, anchored at
League One = 0:
Division
Level, in rating z
Moves seen
the Premier League
+1.46
1015
La Liga
+1.18
1247
the Bundesliga
+1.07
918
Serie A
+1.03
1524
Ligue 1
+0.84
1139
the Championship
+0.61
1189
the Belgian Pro League
+0.44
627
the Eredivisie
+0.36
731
the Primeira Liga
+0.35
652
the Segunda
+0.35
1288
the 2. Bundesliga
+0.27
590
Serie B
+0.23
1120
the Scottish Premiership
+0.02
408
Ligue 2
+0.01
658
League One
+0.00
1560
the 3. Liga
-0.17
270
the HNL
-0.21
279
League Two
-0.27
1267
the Challenger Pro League
-0.27
228
the Eerste Divisie
-0.36
512
The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the
Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries
whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in
(+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not
charged to the divisions.
What goes into a club’s number
Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship
squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:
Input
Weight
What it is
squad quality
+0.300
Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale.
ball-winning
+0.137
Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale.
minutes from higher divisions
+0.118
How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division above this one. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly.
the club’s own last season
+0.102
What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one.
attacking end
+0.101
The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in.
Fitted on 362 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and
League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.
How wrong it is
Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is
scored on data it was fitted on:
Approach
Error, pts/game
Over 46 games
Give every club the division average
0.316
±14.5
Repeat last season, adjusted for level
0.346
±15.9
This model, from the players
0.254
±11.7
So it is worth about 3 points of accuracy over knowing
nothing, and about 4 over assuming last season repeats.
That is a real edge and a small one. The whole projected range across the division is
35 points and the error on any one club is
±12, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered,
and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 24
clubs 1 to 24 in August is not measuring their own error.
The same model run on goals is worth 0.064
of a goal per game against the average for goals scored (0.199 error versus
0.263), and much less for goals conceded (0.213 versus
0.236) — a defence is harder to read off a list of players than an
attack is.
▲ upper group ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection
± half the measured error, not by predicted position.
Club by club
Oxford Utdprojected 85 pts
· band 73–96 · 1.67 scored and 1.03
conceded per game
We project 85 points (73–96), against a division average of 63. Last season: 47 points in the Championship, finishing 22nd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+8), ball-winning (+6), minutes from higher divisions (+6) points. 68 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (18 of 34 players). 10 of the 29 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €29.4m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+7.9
ball-winning
+6.2
minutes from higher divisions
+5.5
attacking end
+2.5
the club’s own last season
-0.6
In since 1 May
Ruben Roosken Heracles · 2026-06-30
Nik Prelec Cagliari · 2026-06-30
Frankie Kent Hearts · 2026-06-30
Aidan Elliott-Wheeler Brackley Town · 2026-05-30
Fraser Barnsley Marine · 2026-05-30
James Golding Southend · 2026-05-30
Stephan Negru Tranmere · 2026-05-30
Will Goodwin Colchester · 2026-05-30
Peter Kioso Peterborough · 2026-05-30
Owen Dale Plymouth · 2026-05-30
Tom Bradshaw Barnsley · 2026-05-30
Stuart Findlay Hearts · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Joshua Johnson Maidenhead · 2026-06-29
Stephan Negru Swindon · 2026-06-29
Will Goodwin Gillingham · 2026-06-29
Jacob Knightbridge no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Myles Peart-Harris Middlesbrough · 2026-06-29
Owen Dale no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Hidde ter Avest Willem II · 2026-06-29
Tom Bradshaw no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Matt Ingram West Brom · 2026-07-01
Stuart Findlay Hearts · 2026-07-01
Ole ter Haar Romeny Sittard · 2026-07-10
Przemyslaw Placheta Austin FC · 2026-07-11
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Cameron Brannagan
M
Oxford Utd
the Championship
3023
36
6
3
96
Ciaron Brown
D
Oxford Utd
the Championship
3236
36
3
1
83
Jack Currie
D
Oxford Utd
the Championship
2191
33
0
1
78
Will Vaulks
M
Oxford Utd
the Championship
1876
45
1
0
84
Jamie McDonnell
M
Mansfield
League One
1650
19
2
0
96
Stanley Mills
M
Oxford Utd
the Championship
2470
44
3
4
62
Stockport Countyprojected 76 pts
· band 65–88 · 1.55 scored and 1.17
conceded per game · Dave Challinor
We project 76 points (65–88), against a division average of 63. Last season: 74 points in League One, finishing 4th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+10), ball-winning (+3), the club’s own last season (+2) points. What pulls them down: minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 62 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (14 of 32 players). 6 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €10.5m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+10.2
ball-winning
+2.6
the club’s own last season
+1.7
minutes from higher divisions
-1.0
attacking end
-0.3
In since 1 May
Oliver Whatmuff Manchester City U21 · 2026-06-30
Owen Dodgson Burnley · 2026-06-30
Kyron Gordon Rochdale · 2026-06-30
Ryan Glover Barnet · 2026-06-30
Eoghan O'Connell Barnsley · 2026-06-30
Jason Adigun Chelmsford · 2026-07-06
Harry Wood Shelbourne · 2026-07-15
Ben Osborn Derby · 2026-07-26
Luca Ashby-Hammond Plymouth · 2026-07-30
Andrew Wogan Boston Utd · 2026-05-29
Jid Okeke Walsall · 2026-05-30
Jayden Fevrier Charlton · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Jid Okeke Mannheim · 2026-06-29
Max Metcalfe no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Odin Bailey Portsmouth · 2026-06-29
Callum Connolly Bradford City · 2026-06-29
Ben Hinchliffe no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Christy Grogan Derry City · 2026-07-03
Corey Addai Burton · 2026-07-14
Arian Allen FC Halifax · 2026-07-16
Joseph Olowu Leyton Orient · 2026-07-19
Jayden Fevrier Blackburn · 2026-07-26
Corey Edwards Rochdale · 2026-05-30
Roman Dixon Everton · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Oliver Norwood
M
Stockport County
League One
3565
40
7
11
100
Kyle Wootton
F
Stockport County
League One
3910
45
18
3
99
Ethan Pye
D
Stockport County
League One
4058
45
0
1
89
Ben Osborn
M
Stockport County
League One
2865
37
1
5
89
Jack Diamond
M
Stockport County
League One
3220
45
6
7
85
Ryan Glover
D
Barnet
League Two
2958
34
2
6
88
MK Donsprojected 74 pts
· band 62–86 · 1.53 scored and 1.18
conceded per game · Paul Warne
We project 74 points (62–86), against a division average of 63. Last season: 80 points in League Two, finishing 3rd. What pushes them up: squad quality (+11), the club’s own last season (+2), attacking end (+2) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-3), minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 73 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (14 of 27 players). 9 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €13.4m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+10.6
ball-winning
-3.3
the club’s own last season
+2.4
attacking end
+1.9
minutes from higher divisions
-0.8
In since 1 May
Brooklyn Kazungu MK Dons · 2026-06-30
Charlie Goode Stevenage · 2026-06-30
Cohen Bramall Luton · 2026-07-02
Daniel Barlaser Middlesbrough · 2026-07-03
Ryan Wintle Cardiff · 2026-07-12
Sam Nombe Rotherham · 2026-07-23
Sam Silvera Middlesbrough · 2026-07-30
Simone Troso King · 2026-05-30
Charlie Waller Wealdstone · 2026-05-30
Callum Tripp Brackley Town · 2026-05-30
Kane Thompson-Sommers Bristol Rovers · 2026-05-30
Sam Sherring Cheltenham · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Tom Finch no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Luke Offord Crewe · 2026-06-29
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans Northampton · 2026-06-29
Joe Tomlinson Cheltenham · 2026-06-29
Laurence Maguire Rochdale · 2026-06-29
Jonathan Leko no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Scott Hogan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Kane Thompson-Sommers Fleetwood · 2026-06-30
Aaron Nemane Rotherham · 2026-07-05
Sam Sherring Rochdale · 2026-07-25
Connal Trueman Sheffield Wed · 2026-07-28
Jonathan Mellish Wigan · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Charlie Goode
D
Stevenage
League One
3552
41
1
0
98
Marvin Ekpiteta
D
MK Dons
League Two
3126
41
6
3
97
Jack Sanders
D
MK Dons
League Two
2608
33
2
0
99
Alex Gilbey
M
MK Dons
League Two
3665
41
11
4
96
Ryan Wintle
M
Cardiff
League One
3250
43
1
7
93
Liam Kelly
M
MK Dons
League Two
3267
42
1
8
96
Lutonprojected 74 pts
· band 62–85 · 1.49 scored and 1.17
conceded per game · Jack Wilshere
We project 74 points (62–85), against a division average of 63. Last season: 68 points in League One, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+7), attacking end (+2), the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 71 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (16 of 35 players). 5 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €19.7m across 20 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+7.1
attacking end
+2.5
the club’s own last season
+1.3
minutes from higher divisions
-0.8
ball-winning
+0.6
In since 1 May
Gideon Kodua West Ham · 2026-06-30
George Johnston Bolton · 2026-06-30
Kasey Palmer Hull · 2026-07-03
Harrison Ashby Newcastle · 2026-07-08
Callum Marshall West Ham · 2026-07-29
Jack Lorentzen-Jones Hemel Hempstead · 2026-05-30
Jacob Brown Portsmouth · 2026-05-31
Joseph Gbode Woking · 2026-05-31
Oliver Lynch Tamworth · 2026-05-31
Ethon Archer Port Vale · 2026-06-29
Christ Makosso Oxford Utd · 2026-06-29
Jayden Luker Notts Co · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Zack Nelson AFC Wimbledon · 2026-06-29
Elijah Adebayo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jacob Brown Reading · 2026-06-30
Cohen Bramall MK Dons · 2026-07-01
Oliver Lynch Port Vale · 2026-07-07
Cauley Woodrow Wycombe · 2026-07-08
Ethon Archer Bromley · 2026-07-10
Joseph Gbode Shrewsbury · 2026-07-12
Christ Makosso Auxerre · 2026-07-13
Millenic Alli Charlton · 2026-07-24
Gideon Kodua West Ham · 2026-05-30
Emilio Lawrence Manchester City · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Liam Walsh
M
Luton
League One
2397
32
1
6
97
George Johnston
D
Bolton
League One
3835
44
1
0
92
Kal Naismith
D
Luton
League One
2868
39
3
2
92
Kasey Palmer
M
Luton
League One
1424
19
8
1
98
Jordan Clark
M
Luton
League One
2773
34
11
3
84
George Saville
M
Luton
League One
2190
41
1
5
86
Leicesterprojected 72 pts
· band 60–83 · 1.44 scored and 1.17
conceded per game · Russell Martin
We project 72 points (60–83), against a division average of 63. Last season: 51 points in the Championship, finishing 19th. What pushes them up: minutes from higher divisions (+6), ball-winning (+3), attacking end (+2) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-2) points. 50 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (11 of 28 players). 15 of the 35 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €122.4m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
minutes from higher divisions
+5.7
ball-winning
+2.7
squad quality
-2.0
attacking end
+1.9
the club’s own last season
+0.1
In since 1 May
Conor Chaplin Ipswich · 2026-07-15
Alex McCarthy Southampton · 2026-07-15
Christian McFarlane Manchester City · 2026-07-28
Rollo Szembell Leicester · 2026-07-30
Liam Cullen Swansea · 2026-07-30
Tom Watson Brighton · 2026-07-31
Jake Evans Northampton · 2026-05-30
Nathaniel Opoku Newport · 2026-05-30
Thomas Wilson-Brown Swindon · 2026-05-30
Will Alves Huddersfield · 2026-05-30
Chris Popov Morecambe · 2026-05-30
Sammy Braybrooke Chesterfield · 2026-05-31
Out since 1 May
Bilal El Khannouss Stuttgart · 2026-06-29
Chris Popov Hartlepool · 2026-06-29
Jahmari Lindsay King · 2026-06-29
Wanya Marcal no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Logan Briggs Northampton · 2026-07-01
Henry Cartwright Bradford City · 2026-07-01
Jeremy Monga Manchester City · 2026-07-09
Victor Kristiansen Panathinaikos · 2026-07-12
Amani Richards Barnsley · 2026-07-13
Silko Thomas Wycombe · 2026-07-13
Harry Winks Cagliari · 2026-07-13
Jannik Vestergaard no club recorded · 2026-07-14
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Sammy Braybrooke
M
Chesterfield
League Two
1696
20
0
3
100
Jakub Stolarczyk
G
Leicester
the Championship
3203
41
0
0
44
Hamza Choudhury
M
Leicester
the Championship
1517
41
0
0
60
Bobby De Cordova-Reid
F
Leicester
the Championship
1757
37
5
3
54
Luke Thomas
D
Leicester
the Championship
3466
44
1
6
40
Oliver Skipp
M
Leicester
the Championship
2569
43
1
0
43
Plymouthprojected 71 pts
· band 60–83 · 1.44 scored and 1.21
conceded per game · Tom Cleverley
We project 71 points (60–83), against a division average of 63. Last season: 70 points in League One, finishing 7th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+4), ball-winning (+3), the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 64 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (16 of 28 players). 9 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €12.2m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+4.3
ball-winning
+3.0
the club’s own last season
+1.1
minutes from higher divisions
-1.0
attacking end
+0.7
In since 1 May
James Storer Wolves · 2026-06-30
Harvey White Stevenage · 2026-06-30
Alex Hartridge Burton · 2026-06-30
Wes Harding Millwall · 2026-06-30
Murphy Cooper QPR · 2026-07-13
Alex Mitchell Charlton · 2026-07-22
Frederick Issaka Truro · 2026-05-30
Nathaniel Ogbeta Barnsley · 2026-05-30
Michael Baidoo Umm-Salal · 2026-06-29
Callum Wright Wigan · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Jack Matthews Truro · 2026-06-29
Joseph Hatch Barnstaple · 2026-06-29
Zak Baker Torquay · 2026-06-29
Ayman Benarous no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Luca Ashby-Hammond Stockport County · 2026-06-29
Nathaniel Ogbeta Maritimo · 2026-06-29
Callum Wright Hibernian · 2026-06-29
Conor Hazard Wycombe · 2026-06-29
Brendan Galloway no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jamie Paterson no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Lorent Tolaj Bristol City · 2026-07-18
Alex Mitchell Charlton · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Harvey White
M
Stevenage
League One
3500
43
4
7
99
Alex Hartridge
D
Burton
League One
3273
38
2
1
99
Malachi Boateng
M
Plymouth
League One
4023
45
4
8
82
Aribim Pepple
F
Plymouth
League One
2085
35
16
2
88
Alex Mitchell
D
Plymouth
League One
3417
40
3
0
78
Mathias Ross
D
Plymouth
League One
2855
38
4
1
65
Bradford Cityprojected 68 pts
· band 57–80 · 1.41 scored and 1.26
conceded per game · Graham Alexander
We project 68 points (57–80), against a division average of 63. Last season: 74 points in League One, finishing 5th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+4), the club’s own last season (+2) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-1), minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 71 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (14 of 31 players). 5 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €10.2m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+4.1
the club’s own last season
+1.7
attacking end
-0.6
minutes from higher divisions
-0.6
ball-winning
+0.5
In since 1 May
Jon McCracken Dundee FC · 2026-06-30
Macaulay Gillesphey Charlton · 2026-06-30
Adam Phillips Barnsley · 2026-06-30
Jake Beesley Burton · 2026-06-30
Callum Connolly Stockport County · 2026-06-30
Henry Cartwright Leicester · 2026-07-02
Harry Ibbitson Chorley · 2026-05-30
George Goodman Guiseley · 2026-05-30
Clarke Oduor Grimsby · 2026-05-30
Neill Byrne Doncaster · 2026-05-30
Andy Cook Grimsby · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
George Goodman no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jenson Metcalfe Millwall · 2026-06-29
Clarke Oduor no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Joe Hilton no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Ciaran Kelly Bristol Rovers · 2026-06-29
Curtis Tilt Burton · 2026-06-29
Lee Evans no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Max Power Wigan · 2026-06-29
Andy Cook Grimsby · 2026-06-29
Neill Byrne Doncaster · 2026-06-29
Ethan Wheatley Manchester Utd · 2026-05-30
Joe White Newcastle · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Jake Beesley
F
Burton
League One
3919
44
13
6
89
Ibou Touray
D
Bradford City
League One
3558
44
0
2
88
Bobby Pointon
F
Bradford City
League One
2200
34
9
3
92
Josh Neufville
M
Bradford City
League One
3375
45
3
7
80
Joe Wright
D
Bradford City
League One
1826
35
3
0
91
Jon McCracken
G
Dundee FC
the Scottish Premiership
3126
35
0
0
76
Sheffield Wedprojected 67 pts
· band 55–79 · 1.33 scored and 1.23
conceded per game · Henrik Pedersen
We project 67 points (55–79), against a division average of 63. Last season: 15 points in the Championship, finishing 24th. What pushes them up: minutes from higher divisions (+5), ball-winning (+3), attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-6) points. 53 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (13 of 31 players). 8 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €19.4m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
the club’s own last season
-5.6
minutes from higher divisions
+5.1
ball-winning
+3.3
attacking end
+0.8
squad quality
+0.1
In since 1 May
Jordi Liongola RAAL La Louviere · 2026-06-30
Callum Slattery Motherwell · 2026-06-30
Ricardo Santos Swansea · 2026-06-30
Sil Swinkels Aston Villa · 2026-07-01
Harry Gray Leeds · 2026-07-06
Louie Barry Aston Villa · 2026-07-08
Barry Bannan Millwall · 2026-07-08
Joe Lumley Bristol City · 2026-07-10
Billy Mitchell Millwall · 2026-07-18
Connal Trueman MK Dons · 2026-07-29
Mason Burstow Hull · 2026-07-30
Ashley Maynard-Brewer Dundee Utd · 2026-07-30
Out since 1 May
Pierce Charles Manchester City · 2026-06-29
Olaf Kobacki Wisla Plock · 2026-06-29
Svante Ingelsson Stoke · 2026-06-29
Marvelous Nakamba no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Dominic Iorfa no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Nathaniel Chalobah no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Rio Shipston Solihull Moors · 2026-07-05
Logan Stretch Buxton · 2026-07-19
Zain Silcott-Duberry Rochdale · 2026-07-26
Reece Johnson Eastleigh · 2026-07-28
Ike Ugbo Apollon · 2026-08-01
Murphy Cooper QPR · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Barry Bannan
M
Sheffield Wed
the Championship
2454
28
3
3
98
Jamal Lowe
F
Sheffield Wed
the Championship
3157
44
4
3
68
Jordi Liongola
M
RAAL La Louviere
the Belgian Pro League
2618
31
2
6
78
Callum Slattery
M
Motherwell
the Scottish Premiership
2225
29
3
8
90
Billy Mitchell
M
Millwall
the Championship
1920
26
0
1
81
Sil Swinkels
D
Chesterfield
League Two
1800
20
0
1
82
Readingprojected 66 pts
· band 54–77 · 1.34 scored and 1.26
conceded per game · Leam Richardson
We project 66 points (54–77), against a division average of 63. Last season: 63 points in League One, finishing 12th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+3), squad quality (+2) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-2), minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 67 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (17 of 30 players). 12 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 18. Squad value on our player feed: €17.0m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
attacking end
+2.7
squad quality
+2.2
ball-winning
-1.6
minutes from higher divisions
-0.9
the club’s own last season
+0.0
In since 1 May
Kyreece Lisbie Colchester · 2026-06-30
Udoka Godwin-Malife Burton · 2026-06-30
Jacob Brown Luton · 2026-07-01
Josh Stokes Bristol City · 2026-07-09
Ashqar Ahmed Forest Green · 2026-05-30
Reece Evans Torquay · 2026-05-30
Harrison Rhone Brackley Town · 2026-05-30
Abraham Kanu Forest Green · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Mamadi Camara no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Michael Stickland Aldershot · 2026-06-29
Tivonge Rushesha Radnik Bijeljina · 2026-06-29
Ben Elliott no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Andy Yiadom no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Derrick Williams no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Matt Ritchie no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Tom Norcott Derry City · 2026-07-02
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan Horsens · 2026-07-27
Kadan Young Aston Villa · 2026-05-30
Kamari Doyle Brighton U21 · 2026-05-30
Ryan Nyambe Derby · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Lewis Wing
M
Reading
League One
3986
45
11
11
100
Jack Marriott
F
Reading
League One
1770
24
16
3
98
Benn Ward
D
Accrington
League Two
2060
23
2
0
90
Joel Pereira
G
Reading
League One
3780
42
0
0
72
Udoka Godwin-Malife
D
Burton
League One
3150
37
2
3
71
Charlie Savage
M
Reading
League One
3479
43
2
4
70
Huddersfieldprojected 65 pts
· band 53–77 · 1.35 scored and 1.28
conceded per game · Liam Manning
We project 65 points (53–77), against a division average of 63. Last season: 64 points in League One, finishing 10th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+3), attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-3) points. 62 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (18 of 32 players). 9 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €16.7m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Wycombeprojected 62 pts
· band 51–74 · 1.29 scored and 1.29
conceded per game · Michael Duff
We project 62 points (51–74), against a division average of 63. Last season: 63 points in League One, finishing 11th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+2) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-2) points. 82 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (17 of 27 players). 8 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €9.9m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
ball-winning
-2.4
attacking end
+2.3
minutes from higher divisions
-0.6
squad quality
-0.2
the club’s own last season
+0.0
In since 1 May
Conor Hazard Plymouth · 2026-06-30
Matt Macey Colchester · 2026-06-30
Jahrel McKoy Cambridge Utd · 2026-07-01
Steve Cook QPR · 2026-07-02
Cauley Woodrow Luton · 2026-07-09
Silko Thomas Leicester · 2026-07-14
Emre Tezgel Stoke · 2026-07-22
Samuel Parker Swansea · 2026-07-27
Jaiden Bartolo AFC Totton · 2026-05-30
Fin Back Colchester · 2026-05-30
James Berry-McNally Chesterfield · 2026-05-30
James Tilley AFC Wimbledon · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Laurence Shala no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Fin Back no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Shamal George Bromley · 2026-06-29
Will Norris Salford · 2026-06-29
Jack Matton Aldershot · 2026-06-30
James Berry-McNally Forest Green · 2026-06-30
James Tilley AFC Wimbledon · 2026-07-12
Declan Skura Walsall · 2026-07-20
Alex Lowry Motherwell · 2026-07-24
Nathan Lowe Stoke · 2026-05-30
Luke Harris Fulham · 2026-05-30
Niall Huggins Sunderland · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Dan Casey
D
Wycombe
League One
2062
32
3
1
95
Connor Taylor
D
Wycombe
League One
2062
37
2
2
93
Steve Cook
D
QPR
the Championship
2068
40
1
0
77
Aaron Morley
M
Wycombe
League One
1274
17
2
3
97
Luke Leahy
M
Wycombe
League One
2726
44
0
6
81
Armando Quitirna
F
Wycombe
League One
1575
39
6
1
92
Bromleyprojected 61 pts
· band 50–73 · 1.30 scored and 1.34
conceded per game · Andy Woodman
We project 61 points (50–73), against a division average of 63. Last season: 86 points in League Two, finishing 1st. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+3) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-2), attacking end (-1), minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 71 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (11 of 21 players). 13 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €2.0m across 14 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
the club’s own last season
+2.8
ball-winning
-2.3
attacking end
-1.2
minutes from higher divisions
-1.0
squad quality
-0.2
In since 1 May
Kamil Conteh Bristol Rovers · 2026-07-08
Chanse Headman Harrogate · 2026-07-09
Jacob Mendy Peterborough · 2026-07-09
Shamal George Wycombe · 2026-07-09
Ethon Archer Luton · 2026-07-10
Deonysus Woodman Wealdstone · 2026-07-10
Victor Adeboyejo Mansfield · 2026-07-12
Hayden Bullas Leyton Orient · 2026-07-22
Joshua McKiernan John Lincoln · 2026-07-26
Richard Taylor Bolton · 2026-07-26
Charlie Burton Bromley · 2026-07-29
Kamarl Grant Millwall · 2026-07-31
Out since 1 May
Brooklyn Ilunga Hartlepool · 2026-06-29
Sam Long Salford · 2026-06-29
Idris Odutayo Dundee FC · 2026-06-29
Marcus Dinanga Aldershot · 2026-06-29
Kyle Cameron Newport · 2026-06-29
Carl Jenkinson no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Samuel German Walton · 2026-07-01
Jude Arthurs Crawley · 2026-07-01
Byron Webster no club recorded · 2026-07-26
Ben Krauhaus Brentford · 2026-05-30
Damola Ajayi Tottenham · 2026-05-30
Lakyle Samuel Manchester City · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Mitchell Pinnock
M
Bromley
League Two
3983
45
2
9
97
Omar Sowunmi
D
Bromley
League Two
3375
41
7
0
95
Michael Cheek
F
Bromley
League Two
2811
34
15
3
92
Shamal George
G
St. Mirren
the Scottish Premiership
2708
31
0
1
80
Ashley Charles
M
Bromley
League Two
3643
44
2
4
81
Marcus Ifill
D
Bromley
League Two
3124
40
3
1
81
Leyton Orientprojected 60 pts
· band 49–72 · 1.21 scored and 1.31
conceded per game · Richie Wellens
We project 60 points (49–72), against a division average of 63. Last season: 48 points in League One, finishing 21st. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2), attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), the club’s own last season (-2) points. 59 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (16 of 32 players). 8 of the 30 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €12.6m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-4.1
ball-winning
+2.4
the club’s own last season
-2.2
attacking end
+1.4
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Fin Stevens St. Pauli · 2026-06-30
Tony Springett Norwich · 2026-06-30
Armando Dobra Chesterfield · 2026-06-30
Nathan Baxter Watford · 2026-07-02
Isaac Hayden QPR · 2026-07-09
Yusuf Akhamrich Tottenham · 2026-07-10
Joseph Olowu Stockport County · 2026-07-20
Somto Boniface Ipswich · 2026-07-27
Tariq Al-Sadi Leyton Orient · 2026-08-01
Phillip Chinedu Barnet · 2026-05-30
Hayden Bullas Enfield Town · 2026-05-30
Zech Obiero Tranmere · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Makai Welch Hornchurch · 2026-06-29
Hayden Bullas Bromley · 2026-06-29
Toby Oluwayemi no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Sonny Perkins Wigan · 2026-06-29
Daniel Happe Aberdeen · 2026-06-29
Diallang Jaiyesimi no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Thomas James Bristol Rovers · 2026-06-29
Jack Simpson Chesterfield · 2026-06-30
Azeem Abdulai Hibernian · 2026-07-02
Josh Koroma Chesterfield · 2026-07-08
Ajay Matthews Millwall · 2026-05-30
Favour Fawunmi Stoke · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Dominic Ballard
F
Leyton Orient
League One
3298
38
21
3
94
Aaron Connolly
F
Leyton Orient
League One
1646
20
8
4
98
Idris El Mizouni
M
Leyton Orient
League One
1673
23
5
1
80
Tyreeq Bakinson
M
Leyton Orient
League One
2564
38
2
2
71
Theodore Archibald
F
Leyton Orient
League One
1424
22
2
2
78
Yusuf Akhamrich
M
Bristol Rovers
League Two
881
19
6
1
86
Mansfieldprojected 59 pts
· band 48–71 · 1.24 scored and 1.34
conceded per game · Nigel Clough
We project 59 points (48–71), against a division average of 63. Last season: 64 points in League One, finishing 9th. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-2), squad quality (-1), minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 89 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (20 of 24 players). 4 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €7.0m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
ball-winning
-2.1
squad quality
-1.3
minutes from higher divisions
-0.7
attacking end
+0.3
the club’s own last season
+0.2
In since 1 May
Jonathan Russell Barnsley · 2026-06-30
David McGoldrick Barnsley · 2026-06-30
Michael Smith Preston · 2026-07-12
Max Dickov Tranmere · 2026-05-30
George Cooper Truro · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Jakub Kruszynski Alfreton · 2026-06-29
George Cooper Buxton · 2026-06-29
Victor Adeboyejo Bromley · 2026-06-29
Aaron Lewis no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Dom Dwyer no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Max Dickov Eastleigh · 2026-07-11
Oliver Irow Tottenham · 2026-05-30
George Abbott Tottenham · 2026-05-30
Jonathan Russell Barnsley · 2026-05-30
Joe Gardner Nottingham · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Louis Reed
M
Mansfield
League One
2802
33
2
5
96
David McGoldrick
F
Barnsley
League One
2449
38
15
3
90
Lucas Akins
M
Mansfield
League One
2010
26
9
2
89
Liam Roberts
G
Mansfield
League One
3786
42
0
1
74
Stephen McLaughlin
M
Mansfield
League One
2444
41
3
3
73
Baily Cargill
D
Mansfield
League One
1341
20
1
1
86
Peterboroughprojected 59 pts
· band 48–71 · 1.24 scored and 1.37
conceded per game · Luke Williams
We project 59 points (48–71), against a division average of 63. Last season: 53 points in League One, finishing 16th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-2), the club’s own last season (-1), minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 60 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (13 of 28 players). 9 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €8.8m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
attacking end
-2.0
the club’s own last season
-1.4
minutes from higher divisions
-1.0
squad quality
+0.9
ball-winning
-0.3
In since 1 May
Collin Andeng Ndi Southend · 2026-06-30
Harrison Jones Sunderland · 2026-06-30
Owura Edwards Colchester · 2026-06-30
Evan Weir Walsall · 2026-06-30
Thomas O'Connor Wrexham · 2026-06-30
Bradley Ihionvien Shrewsbury · 2026-05-30
Chris Conn-Clarke Carlisle · 2026-05-30
Klaidi Lolos Crawley · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Kovaci Vora · 2026-06-29
Jacob Mendy Bromley · 2026-06-29
Archie Collins no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Tom Lees Harrogate · 2026-06-29
Cian Hayes Rochdale · 2026-06-30
Abraham Odoh Salford · 2026-06-30
Bradley Ihionvien Colchester · 2026-07-08
Oluwalopemiwa Aderoju Crawley · 2026-07-09
Jeremiah Lisbie Kyrell Millwall · 2026-07-24
Jimmy-Jay Morgan Chelsea · 2026-05-30
Peter Kioso Oxford Utd · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Alex Bass
G
Peterborough
League One
3420
38
0
0
96
David Okagbue
D
Peterborough
League One
2237
34
0
0
96
Evan Weir
D
Walsall
League Two
2626
32
3
3
95
Harry Leonard
F
Peterborough
League One
2799
35
15
5
81
Matthew Garbett
M
Peterborough
League One
2019
28
3
2
79
Harley Mills
D
Peterborough
League One
1618
23
0
0
80
Cambridge Utdprojected 57 pts
· band 46–69 · 1.22 scored and 1.39
conceded per game · Neil Harris
We project 57 points (46–69), against a division average of 63. Last season: 82 points in League Two, finishing 2nd. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+2) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-3), attacking end (-2), ball-winning (-1) points. 70 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (14 of 27 players). 7 of the 21 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 14. Squad value on our player feed: €5.2m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-3.3
attacking end
-1.9
the club’s own last season
+1.9
ball-winning
-1.5
minutes from higher divisions
-1.0
In since 1 May
Isaac Heath Everton · 2026-06-30
Callum Stead Barnet · 2026-06-30
Gassan Ahadme Charlton · 2026-06-30
Patrick Bauer AFC Wimbledon · 2026-07-02
Callum Perry Coventry · 2026-07-20
George Munday Hereford · 2026-05-30
Ryan Loft Crawley · 2026-05-30
Zeno Ibsen Rossi Shelbourne · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
George Munday Brighton U21 · 2026-06-29
Zeno Ibsen Rossi Glentoran · 2026-06-29
James Gibbons Notts Co · 2026-06-29
James Brophy Gillingham · 2026-06-29
Ben Purrington Bristol Rovers · 2026-06-29
Elias Kachunga no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Korey Smith no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Michael Morrison no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jahrel McKoy Wycombe · 2026-06-30
Adam Mayor Millwall · 2026-05-30
Kylian Kouassi Blackpool · 2026-05-30
Elliott Nevitt Gillingham · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Kelland Watts
D
Cambridge Utd
League Two
4060
46
6
0
92
Sullay Kaikai
F
Cambridge Utd
League Two
3004
44
9
3
91
Callum Stead
F
Barnet
League Two
2531
33
13
4
92
Mamadou Jobe
D
Cambridge Utd
League Two
3222
46
2
1
83
Dominic Ball
M
Cambridge Utd
League Two
2756
35
2
2
83
Benjamin Knight
M
Cambridge Utd
League Two
2391
45
11
3
80
Barnsleyprojected 56 pts
· band 45–68 · 1.17 scored and 1.38
conceded per game · Conor Hourihane
We project 56 points (45–68), against a division average of 63. Last season: 59 points in League One, finishing 13th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-6), attacking end (-1) points. 51 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (12 of 27 players). 13 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 15. Squad value on our player feed: €5.7m across 17 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-6.4
ball-winning
+1.5
attacking end
-1.1
the club’s own last season
-0.4
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Cameron McGeehan Northampton · 2026-06-30
Isaac Smith Manchester City · 2026-07-01
Clayton Taylor Newcastle Jets · 2026-07-01
Cieran Slicker Ipswich · 2026-07-12
Tyrese Noslin Telstar · 2026-07-13
Amani Richards Leicester · 2026-07-14
Makenzie Kirk Portsmouth · 2026-07-15
Sam Gale Gillingham · 2026-07-30
Jonathan Russell Mansfield · 2026-05-30
Fabio Jalo Oldham · 2026-06-29
Jackson Smith Grimsby · 2026-06-29
Kacper Lopata Walsall · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Aston Wilson Oldham · 2026-06-29
Jackson Smith Port Vale · 2026-06-29
Max Watters Port Vale · 2026-06-29
Jonathan Russell Mansfield · 2026-06-29
Andrew Dallas Walsall · 2026-06-29
Tennai Watson no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Adam Phillips Bradford City · 2026-06-29
Marc Roberts no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Eoghan O'Connell Stockport County · 2026-06-29
David McGoldrick Mansfield · 2026-06-29
Bin Xu Wolves · 2026-05-30
Tawanda Chirewa Wolves · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Luca Connell
M
Barnsley
League One
3352
39
4
3
86
Reyes Cleary
M
Barnsley
League One
2470
44
7
13
73
Jack Shepherd
D
Barnsley
League One
3073
43
0
0
69
Josh Earl
D
Barnsley
League One
1679
21
1
0
81
Tyrese Noslin
D
Telstar
the Eredivisie
2306
34
2
3
60
Cieran Slicker
G
Barnet
League Two
3785
42
0
0
72
Wiganprojected 56 pts
· band 44–68 · 1.18 scored and 1.41
conceded per game · Gary Caldwell
We project 56 points (44–68), against a division average of 63. Last season: 56 points in League One, finishing 15th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-3), squad quality (-3), the club’s own last season (-1) points. 47 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (10 of 27 players). 10 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €5.7m across 18 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
attacking end
-3.4
squad quality
-3.1
the club’s own last season
-0.9
ball-winning
+0.7
minutes from higher divisions
-0.5
In since 1 May
Jeremiah Chilokoa-Mullen Dunfermline · 2026-06-30
Sonny Perkins Leyton Orient · 2026-06-30
Connor Barrett Walsall · 2026-06-30
Max Power Bradford City · 2026-06-30
Akeel Higgins West Brom · 2026-07-02
Hindolo Mustapha Crystal Palace U21 · 2026-07-03
Joe Walsh QPR · 2026-07-08
Ryan Trevitt Brentford · 2026-07-20
Tobias Brenan Harrogate · 2026-05-30
Kai Payne Oldham · 2026-05-30
Ronan Darcy Crawley · 2026-05-30
Jonathan Mellish MK Dons · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Alex Hughes Connahs Q. · 2026-06-29
Sam Tickle Bristol City · 2026-06-29
Tyrese Francois no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Toby Savin Torquay · 2026-06-29
Steven Sessegnon AFC Wimbledon · 2026-06-29
Jason Kerr Hibernian · 2026-06-29
Will Aimson Salford · 2026-06-29
Jack Hunt York City · 2026-06-29
Luke Robinson Dunfermline · 2026-07-04
Christy Edwards Southport · 2026-07-16
Harrison Bettoni Chelsea · 2026-07-21
Ryan Trevitt Brentford · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Max Power
M
Bradford City
League One
3783
42
0
4
95
Fraser Murray
M
Wigan
League One
3653
44
5
8
92
Connor Barrett
M
Walsall
League Two
2580
36
3
3
82
Jensen Weir
M
Wigan
League One
2808
39
2
0
67
Morgan Fox
D
Wigan
League One
2578
33
0
3
67
Joseph Hungbo
F
Wigan
League One
1598
36
0
3
69
Notts Coprojected 56 pts
· band 44–68 · 1.20 scored and 1.40
conceded per game
We project 56 points (44–68), against a division average of 63. Last season: 80 points in League Two, finishing 4th. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+2) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-3), ball-winning (-3), attacking end (-1) points. 65 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (16 of 29 players). 10 of the 29 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €4.1m across 19 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-3.4
ball-winning
-3.4
the club’s own last season
+1.6
attacking end
-1.1
minutes from higher divisions
-1.0
In since 1 May
Elias Reaney Notts Co · 2026-06-30
Darius Lipsiuc Stoke · 2026-06-30
Harrison Sanders Max Crewe · 2026-06-30
James Gibbons Cambridge Utd · 2026-06-30
Callum Roberts Scunthorpe · 2026-06-30
Emile Acquah Dundee FC · 2026-07-07
Matthew Baker Newport · 2026-07-16
Jack Evans Harrogate · 2026-07-23
Luka Smyth VPS · 2026-07-26
Ryley Reynolds Kidderminster · 2026-05-30
Madou Cisse Hereford · 2026-05-30
Jack Hinchy Wealdstone · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Milai Perott no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Madou Cisse Quorn · 2026-06-29
Jack Hinchy Altrincham · 2026-06-29
Keanan Bennetts Ingolstadt · 2026-06-29
Oliver Norburn Oldham · 2026-06-29
Matthew Dennis Burton · 2026-07-02
Alassana Jatta Casa Pia · 2026-07-27
Mai Traore no club recorded · 2026-07-30
Tyrese Hall Tottenham · 2026-05-30
Tom Iorpenda Huddersfield · 2026-06-29
Jayden Luker Luton · 2026-06-29
Nilsen Tangen Harald Sarpsborg 08 · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Harrison Sanders Max
M
Crewe
League Two
3097
37
3
4
98
Jodi Jones
F
Notts Co
League Two
2456
38
8
4
99
James Gibbons
D
Cambridge Utd
League Two
2956
45
6
6
94
Matt Palmer
M
Notts Co
League Two
2337
28
1
5
93
Matthew Platt
D
Notts Co
League Two
1852
25
1
0
89
Nicholas Tsaroulla
D
Notts Co
League Two
3007
39
4
5
80
Burtonprojected 56 pts
· band 44–67 · 1.19 scored and 1.42
conceded per game · Gary Bowyer
We project 56 points (44–67), against a division average of 63. Last season: 53 points in League One, finishing 17th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-3), ball-winning (-3), the club’s own last season (-2) points. 46 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (10 of 25 players). 10 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 14. Squad value on our player feed: €6.7m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
attacking end
-2.8
ball-winning
-2.7
the club’s own last season
-1.5
minutes from higher divisions
-1.0
squad quality
+0.7
In since 1 May
Curtis Tilt Bradford City · 2026-06-30
Matthew Dennis Notts Co · 2026-07-03
Corey Addai Stockport County · 2026-07-14
Gbemi Arubi Dundalk · 2026-07-17
Josh Taroni Spalding United · 2026-05-30
Jack Newall Alfreton · 2026-05-30
Millar Matthews Lewis Yeovil · 2026-05-30
Geraldo Bajrami Crawley · 2026-05-30
Alex Bannon Derry City · 2026-06-29
Tomas Kalinauskas Roda · 2026-06-29
Jack Cooper-Love Roda · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Josh Taroni no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jordan Amissah Dundee Utd · 2026-06-29
Alex Bannon Cliftonville · 2026-06-29
Jasper Moon Port Vale · 2026-06-29
Fabio Tavares Rotherham · 2026-06-29
Geraldo Bajrami Teuta · 2026-06-29
Udoka Godwin-Malife Reading · 2026-06-29
Alex Hartridge Plymouth · 2026-06-29
Jake Beesley Bradford City · 2026-07-01
Julian Larsson Helsingborg · 2026-07-05
Jack Cooper-Love FC Emmen · 2026-07-11
Nick Akoto Eastleigh · 2026-07-11
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Charlie Webster
M
Burton
League One
1782
22
6
3
94
Kgaogelo Chauke
F
Burton
League One
3101
38
0
0
79
Tyrese Shade
F
Burton
League One
2777
38
9
1
79
Jack Armer
M
Burton
League One
2619
38
2
1
74
George Evans
M
Burton
League One
2572
32
2
4
74
Kyran Lofthouse
M
Burton
League One
3924
44
5
7
68
Stevenageprojected 56 pts
· band 44–67 · 1.17 scored and 1.40
conceded per game
We project 56 points (44–67), against a division average of 63. Last season: 72 points in League One, finishing 6th. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-7), attacking end (-2), minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 75 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (16 of 25 players). 6 of the 25 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €7.3m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-6.6
attacking end
-1.6
the club’s own last season
+1.4
minutes from higher divisions
-1.0
ball-winning
+0.1
In since 1 May
Oliver Sanderson Fulham · 2026-06-30
Terry Taylor Charlton · 2026-06-30
Josh Magennis Exeter · 2026-06-30
Terence Vancooten Burton · 2026-07-24
Jovan Malcolm Barrow · 2026-05-30
Frank Norris Bishop's Stortford · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Ellis Bates Aveley · 2026-06-29
Mathaeus Roberts no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Tyreece Simpson no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Beryly Lubala no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Harvey White Plymouth · 2026-06-29
Taye Ashby-Hammond Barnet · 2026-06-29
Dan Sweeney AFC Wimbledon · 2026-06-29
Charlie Goode MK Dons · 2026-06-29
Matt Phillips no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Harry Cornick Bristol City · 2026-05-30
Gassan Ahadme Charlton · 2026-06-29
G. Yahyai Charlton Athletic · 2026-07-01
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Carl Piergianni
D
Stevenage
League One
3604
44
3
1
97
Lewis Freestone
D
Stevenage
League One
2480
37
2
0
79
Terry Taylor
M
Northampton
League One
3152
41
0
3
60
Dan Butler
D
Stevenage
League One
846
19
0
1
80
Josh Magennis
F
Exeter
League One
1562
36
7
1
59
Louis Thompson
M
Stevenage
League One
1530
33
2
0
56
Blackpoolprojected 55 pts
· band 43–67 · 1.13 scored and 1.38
conceded per game · Ian Evatt
We project 55 points (43–67), against a division average of 63. Last season: 51 points in League One, finishing 19th. What pushes them up: attacking end (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-7), the club’s own last season (-1), minutes from higher divisions (-1) points. 77 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (18 of 29 players). 5 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €50.8m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-7.2
the club’s own last season
-1.5
attacking end
+0.8
minutes from higher divisions
-0.7
ball-winning
+0.5
In since 1 May
Dion Charles Huddersfield · 2026-06-30
Ilmari Niskanen Exeter · 2026-06-30
Karoy Anderson Charlton · 2026-07-20
Jordan Williams Portsmouth · 2026-07-28
Kylian Kouassi Cambridge Utd · 2026-05-30
Dan Sassi Altrincham · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Ryan Finnigan Dundee FC · 2026-06-29
Dan Sassi Newport · 2026-06-29
Ashley Fletcher Huddersfield · 2026-06-29
James Husband Doncaster · 2026-06-29
Karoy Anderson Charlton · 2026-05-30
Kamarl Grant Millwall · 2026-05-30
Joel Randall Bolton · 2026-05-30
Michael Obafemi Burnley · 2026-05-30
Reuell Walters Luton · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Ilmari Niskanen
D
Exeter
League One
4057
45
3
13
79
CJ Hamilton
F
Blackpool
League One
2398
42
3
4
73
Albie Morgan
M
Blackpool
League One
1275
17
0
1
75
Bailey Peacock-Farrell
G
Blackpool
League One
3562
40
0
0
61
Michael Ihiekwe
D
Blackpool
League One
2131
25
0
0
62
Fraser Horsfall
D
Blackpool
League One
1912
30
0
0
64
Doncasterprojected 55 pts
· band 43–66 · 1.14 scored and 1.41
conceded per game · Grant McCann
We project 55 points (43–66), against a division average of 63. Last season: 57 points in League One, finishing 14th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-5), attacking end (-1), the club’s own last season (-1) points. 64 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (15 of 28 players). 12 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €5.0m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-5.1
attacking end
-1.0
the club’s own last season
-0.9
ball-winning
-0.9
minutes from higher divisions
-0.7
In since 1 May
Leon Ayinde Ipswich · 2026-06-30
Francis Okoronkwo Everton · 2026-06-30
Tommy Simkin Stoke · 2026-06-30
Alfie May Huddersfield · 2026-06-30
Neill Byrne Bradford City · 2026-06-30
James Husband Blackpool · 2026-06-30
Josh Clarke Partick Thistle · 2026-07-06
Isaac Hutchinson Bristol Rovers · 2026-07-19
Jordan Thomas Cheltenham · 2026-07-27
Bobby Faulkner Harrogate · 2026-05-29
Aaron Cashmore Stamford · 2026-05-30
Will Flint Buxton · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
James Maxwell Northampton · 2026-06-29
Kyle Hurst Scunthorpe · 2026-06-29
Jordan Gibson Crewe · 2026-06-29
Zain Westbrooke Yeovil · 2026-06-29
Joe Sbarra Solihull Moors · 2026-06-29
Ben Close no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Billy Sharp no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Bobby Faulkner Tranmere · 2026-07-15
Will Flint FC Halifax · 2026-07-26
Luke Molyneux Salford · 2026-07-26
Sam Straughan-Brown Spalding United · 2026-07-31
Elliot Lee Wrexham · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Isaac Hutchinson
M
Cheltenham
League Two
2870
34
15
3
96
Edward Bailey Owen John
M
Doncaster
League One
4050
45
13
4
88
Matthew Pearson
D
Doncaster
League One
2316
40
1
0
75
Jordan Thomas
M
Cheltenham
League Two
3055
39
6
5
74
Hakeeb Adelakun
F
Doncaster
League One
1099
20
2
2
80
George Broadbent
M
Doncaster
League One
2099
40
1
2
62
AFC Wimbledonprojected 49 pts
· band 37–61 · 1.04 scored and 1.47
conceded per game · Johnnie Jackson
We project 49 points (37–61), against a division average of 63. Last season: 53 points in League One, finishing 18th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-8), attacking end (-2), the club’s own last season (-2) points. 85 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (17 of 25 players). 8 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 19. Squad value on our player feed: €5.5m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-8.4
attacking end
-1.8
the club’s own last season
-1.5
ball-winning
-1.2
minutes from higher divisions
-1.0
In since 1 May
Zack Nelson Luton · 2026-06-30
Steven Sessegnon Wigan · 2026-06-30
Dan Sweeney Stevenage · 2026-06-30
James Tilley Wycombe · 2026-07-13
Ollie Harrison Chelsea · 2026-07-30
Delano McCoy-Splatt Yeovil · 2026-05-29
Harry Hedges Horsham FC · 2026-05-30
Harry Sidwell Dorking · 2026-05-30
Ethan Sutcliffe Tonbridge · 2026-05-30
Josh Kelly Woking · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Leo Young no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Ethan Sutcliffe no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Josh Kelly Woking · 2026-06-29
Sam Hutchinson Farnham · 2026-06-29
Omar Bugiel Suzhou Dongwu · 2026-07-01
Patrick Bauer Cambridge Utd · 2026-07-01
Harry Sidwell Eastleigh · 2026-07-06
Osman Foyo Rhode Island · 2026-07-21
Leon Chiwome Colchester · 2026-07-30
Nathan Asiimwe Charlton · 2026-05-30
Brodi Hughes Chelsea U21 · 2026-05-30
James Tilley Wycombe · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Marcus Browne
F
AFC Wimbledon
League One
2662
35
12
2
92
Steve Seddon
M
AFC Wimbledon
League One
4017
45
1
8
83
James Tilley
M
AFC Wimbledon
League One
1005
13
2
2
92
Ryan Johnson
D
AFC Wimbledon
League One
3454
39
4
0
67
Jake Reeves
M
AFC Wimbledon
League One
2802
45
1
3
54
Dan Sweeney
D
Stevenage
League One
1150
41
2
0
49
What this does not know.
Squads are as our club feed returned them
on 2026-08-12, and the
window is still open — a signing made after that is missing, and the model would rate him if
he were there. 211 of the 660 registered players have no measured
season in our data at all: academy graduates and men signed from divisions we do not cover. They
are simply left out of their club’s number rather than guessed at — which is its own
kind of blindness, and the count is printed on every club card. We tried making the count of them an
input: it improved the backtest and we dropped it anyway, because in the backtest a squad is the
men who played and today it is the men a club has registered, so clubs with large academies were
being marked down for paperwork. Ratings come from our
match-level player records, which start to thin out below the fourth tier. The model has no
transfer fees, no injuries, no coaches, no budgets and no pre-season, and it treats last
season’s minutes as the guide to this season’s — so a club that has just changed
manager and bought a first eleven is exactly where it will be most wrong. It is a projection of a
season, not a guide to a match, and it is not a betting product.