League Two 2026/27: a projection built from the players, club by club
GoalSoon · built 12 August 2026 · every figure is our own
calculation
24 clubs, 613 players currently registered with them,
and a projected points total for each — not from what the clubs did last season, but from
what the men now in their squads did, wherever in the world they did it. The error is measured and
published: ±11 points.
The idea
A club is not the same thing in August that it was in April. Squads turn over, and a projection
built on last season’s league table cannot see that. So this one starts a level down: every
player registered with the 24 clubs, what he did last season, and where he did it.
The problem with adding players up is that a good season in one division is not a good season in
another. We do not assume the gap — we measure it, on
8,624 players who actually moved and so were rated in both divisions in
consecutive seasons. Fitting all those moves at once puts every division on one scale, anchored at
League Two = 0:
Division
Level, in rating z
Moves seen
the Premier League
+1.46
1015
La Liga
+1.18
1247
the Bundesliga
+1.07
918
Serie A
+1.03
1524
Ligue 1
+0.84
1139
the Championship
+0.61
1189
the Belgian Pro League
+0.44
627
the Eredivisie
+0.36
731
the Primeira Liga
+0.35
652
the Segunda
+0.35
1288
the 2. Bundesliga
+0.27
590
Serie B
+0.23
1120
the Scottish Premiership
+0.02
408
Ligue 2
+0.01
658
League One
+0.00
1560
the 3. Liga
-0.17
270
the HNL
-0.21
279
League Two
-0.27
1267
the Challenger Pro League
-0.27
228
the Eerste Divisie
-0.36
512
The Premier League sits about a point and a half of a standard deviation above League One, the
Championship six tenths, League Two a quarter below. A separate term in the same fit carries
whatever a player gains or loses simply by changing club, whichever division he lands in
(+0.04 on this scale — near enough nothing), so that common effect is not
charged to the divisions.
What goes into a club’s number
Five figures per club, each measured within its own division and season so that a Championship
squad and a League Two squad are read on the same terms. The weights are fitted, not chosen:
Input
Weight
What it is
squad quality
+0.300
Squad quality — the 25 players with the heaviest minutes last season, each scored against his own division and then put on one scale.
ball-winning
+0.137
Ball-winning — tackles per 90 across the squad, on the same scale.
minutes from higher divisions
+0.118
How much of the squad’s minutes were played in a division above this one. It is not a bonus for names; a man who played those minutes badly scores badly.
the club’s own last season
+0.102
What the club itself did last season, points per game, adjusted for the level it did it at — the only club-level input, and a light one.
attacking end
+0.101
The attacking end — the six best goal-and-assist rates in the squad, again measured against the division each man played in.
Fitted on 362 club-seasons from the Championship, League One and
League Two, 2020/21 to 2025/26.
How wrong it is
Checked by holding out one season at a time and predicting it from the others, so nothing is
scored on data it was fitted on:
Approach
Error, pts/game
Over 46 games
Give every club the division average
0.259
±11.9
Repeat last season, adjusted for level
0.310
±14.3
This model, from the players
0.241
±11.1
So it is worth about 1 point of accuracy over knowing
nothing, and about 3 points over assuming last season
repeats.
The first of those two is not a real difference: across the 119 club-seasons tested it comes out at p = 0.10, which is inside the noise. On this division the honest reading is that the squads beat last season’s table (p = 0.002) but not the simple act of giving every club the division average. The whole projected range across the division is
22 points and the error on any one club is
±11, which is why the table below is ordered but not numbered,
and why the bands overlap almost everywhere. Anyone who tells you they can rank 24
clubs 1 to 24 in August is not measuring their own error.
The same model run on goals is worth 0.011
of a goal per game against the average for goals scored (0.209 error versus
0.220), and much less for goals conceded (0.227 versus
0.228) — a defence is harder to read off a list of players than an
attack is.
2 clubs get no projection. Rochdale, York City — fewer than eight of their registered players have a measured season in our data, and a projection built on that few would be a guess wearing a number. They are left out rather than filled in.
▲ upper group ▼ lower group — grouping is by projection
± half the measured error, not by predicted position.
Club by club
Salfordprojected 75 pts
· band 64–86 · 1.53 scored and 1.09
conceded per game · Karl Robinson
We project 75 points (64–86), against a division average of 63. Last season: 81 points in League Two, finishing 4th. What pushes them up: minutes from higher divisions (+8), squad quality (+2), the club’s own last season (+2) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. 75 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (15 of 26 players). 2 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 22. Squad value on our player feed: €5.5m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
minutes from higher divisions
+7.6
squad quality
+2.2
the club’s own last season
+2.1
attacking end
+1.6
ball-winning
-1.1
In since 1 May
Sam Long Bromley · 2026-06-30
Joe Powell Rotherham · 2026-06-30
Will Norris Wycombe · 2026-06-30
Will Aimson Wigan · 2026-06-30
Abraham Odoh Peterborough · 2026-07-01
Macaulay Langstaff Millwall · 2026-07-02
Elliot Bonds Fleetwood · 2026-07-13
Luke Molyneux Doncaster · 2026-07-27
Out since 1 May
Robbie Cleary no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Mackenzie Chapman no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Haji Mnoga Patro Eisden · 2026-06-29
Daniel Chesters Wealdstone · 2026-06-29
Thomas Edwards no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Kadeem Harris Gillingham · 2026-06-29
Fabio Borini no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Mark Howard no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Loick Ayina Yeovil · 2026-06-30
Cole Stockton Accrington · 2026-07-07
Ossama Ashley Rotherham · 2026-07-08
Matthew Young Sunderland · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Jorge Grant
M
Salford
League Two
3107
41
4
4
97
Adebola Oluwo
D
Salford
League Two
3017
36
5
1
93
Luke Garbutt
D
Salford
League Two
3858
43
2
5
93
Will Aimson
D
Wigan
League One
3677
41
1
0
76
Joe Powell
M
Rotherham
League One
2399
29
0
4
81
Elliot Bonds
M
Fleetwood
League Two
3371
40
2
3
80
Swindonprojected 74 pts
· band 63–85 · 1.45 scored and 1.12
conceded per game · Scott Holloway Ian
We project 74 points (63–85), against a division average of 63. Last season: 75 points in League Two, finishing 9th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+4), squad quality (+3), the club’s own last season (+2) points. 67 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (15 of 29 players). 6 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €4.2m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
ball-winning
+4.0
squad quality
+3.5
the club’s own last season
+2.0
attacking end
+1.7
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Stephan Negru Oxford Utd · 2026-06-30
Mitchell Clark Port Vale · 2026-06-30
Mathew Virtue-Thick Fleetwood · 2026-06-30
James Debayo Hull · 2026-07-01
Harrison Gray Real Bedford · 2026-05-30
Jake Tabor Eastleigh · 2026-05-30
Harry Gray Real Bedford · 2026-05-30
Jaxon Brown Hashtag · 2026-05-30
Sonny Hart St. Albans · 2026-05-30
Ryan Delaney Newport · 2026-05-30
Owen Foye Evesham · 2026-06-29
S. Hart Greenock Morton · 2026-07-01
Out since 1 May
Daniel Gonzalez-Birchall no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Redman Evans no club recorded · 2026-06-29
George Alston no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jaxon Brown no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Darren Oldaker Southend · 2026-06-29
Ryan Delaney Oldham · 2026-06-29
Billy Bodin no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Junior Hoilett no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Will Wright Barnet · 2026-07-08
Jake Tabor Hemel Hempstead · 2026-07-22
Jake Batty Fleetwood · 2026-07-26
Aidan Borland Aston Villa · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Aaron Drinan
F
Swindon
League Two
3175
37
21
4
97
Ryan Tafazolli
D
Swindon
League Two
1489
21
2
0
100
Connor Ripley
G
Swindon
League Two
3780
42
0
2
83
Ollie Palmer
F
Swindon
League Two
2181
37
6
2
85
Gavin Kilkenny
M
Swindon
League Two
3003
36
1
1
75
Ollie Clarke
M
Swindon
League Two
1843
25
5
1
78
Grimsbyprojected 73 pts
· band 62–84 · 1.47 scored and 1.15
conceded per game · David Artell
We project 73 points (62–84), against a division average of 63. Last season: 78 points in League Two, finishing 7th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+8), the club’s own last season (+2), attacking end (+2) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-2) points. 69 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (13 of 27 players). 12 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 14. Squad value on our player feed: €4.4m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+8.0
the club’s own last season
+2.2
ball-winning
-2.1
attacking end
+2.0
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Joe Foulkes Kidderminster · 2026-06-30
Edon Pruti Sutton · 2026-06-30
Josh Andrews Gillingham · 2026-06-30
Andy Cook Bradford City · 2026-06-30
Cian Doyle Bray · 2026-07-26
Harvey Cartwright Hull · 2026-07-27
Zak Gilsenan Gateshead · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Evan Khouri no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jason Svanthorsson KR Reykjavik · 2026-06-29
George McEachran Chesterfield · 2026-06-29
Tyrell Warren Solihull Moors · 2026-06-29
Zak Gilsenan FC Halifax · 2026-07-04
Darragh Burns Derry City · 2026-07-09
Jude Soonsup-Bell Port MTI FC · 2026-07-24
Tyrell Sellars-Fleming Hull · 2026-05-30
Clarke Oduor Bradford City · 2026-05-30
Jackson Smith Barnsley · 2026-06-29
Andy Cook Bradford City · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Cameron McJannet
D
Grimsby
League Two
4157
46
2
2
96
Kieran Green
M
Grimsby
League Two
3485
42
13
6
94
Reece Staunton
D
Grimsby
League Two
2432
41
1
8
94
Charles Vernam
M
Grimsby
League Two
2719
41
10
9
90
Andy Cook
F
Grimsby
League Two
1735
24
8
2
94
Harvey Rodgers
D
Grimsby
League Two
3945
45
3
2
81
Walsallprojected 70 pts
· band 59–81 · 1.38 scored and 1.16
conceded per game · Darren Byfield
We project 70 points (59–81), against a division average of 63. Last season: 65 points in League Two, finishing 13th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+3), attacking end (+3), ball-winning (+1) points. 40 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (10 of 31 players). 9 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 14. Squad value on our player feed: €4.0m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+2.7
attacking end
+2.7
ball-winning
+1.3
the club’s own last season
+0.6
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Lewis Simper Sutton · 2026-06-30
James Connolly Crewe · 2026-06-30
Andrew Dallas Barnsley · 2026-06-30
Sven Sprangler St Johnstone · 2026-06-30
Isaac Moore Coventry · 2026-07-06
Jed Ward Bristol Rovers · 2026-07-09
Tai Sodje Buxton · 2026-07-16
Ryan Sjordesma Walsall · 2026-07-19
Ellis Harris Walsall · 2026-07-19
Archie Bunn Walsall · 2026-07-19
Declan Skura Wycombe · 2026-07-20
Ryan Leak Ross County · 2026-07-20
Out since 1 May
Evan Weir Peterborough · 2026-06-29
Jake Hollman Sydney FC · 2026-06-29
Connor Barrett Wigan · 2026-06-29
Charlie Lakin Barnet · 2026-06-29
Josh Gordon Exeter · 2026-06-29
Sam Hornby Hednesford · 2026-06-29
Brandon Comley Barnet · 2026-06-29
Jamille Matt Bromsgrove · 2026-06-29
Jamie Jellis Rotherham · 2026-07-08
Jid Okeke Stockport County · 2026-05-30
Daniel Kanu Charlton · 2026-05-30
Aaron Loupalo-Bi Fulham · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Sven Sprangler
M
Newport
League Two
1601
18
0
1
89
Aaron Pressley
F
Walsall
League Two
2360
39
7
2
79
Priestley Farquharson
D
Walsall
League Two
1812
36
5
1
83
Aden Flint
D
Walsall
League Two
3853
45
1
1
75
James Connolly
D
Crewe
League Two
3158
44
3
0
73
Albert Adomah
F
Walsall
League Two
1330
46
6
3
81
Chesterfieldprojected 70 pts
· band 59–81 · 1.40 scored and 1.17
conceded per game · Paul Cook
We project 70 points (59–81), against a division average of 63. Last season: 79 points in League Two, finishing 6th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+3), the club’s own last season (+2), attacking end (+2) points. 63 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (12 of 28 players). 10 of the 31 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €4.9m across 21 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+2.9
the club’s own last season
+2.2
attacking end
+1.8
ball-winning
+0.5
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Junior Eccleston Sutton · 2026-06-30
George McEachran Grimsby · 2026-06-30
Jack Simpson Leyton Orient · 2026-07-01
Alfie Pond Wolves · 2026-07-05
Ruel Sotiriou Hapoel Jerusalem · 2026-07-08
Josh Koroma Leyton Orient · 2026-07-08
Oskar Wozniczka Chesterfield · 2026-07-09
Danni Anisjko Nottingham · 2026-07-16
Remeao Hutton Gillingham · 2026-07-16
Fraser Bryden Crusaders · 2026-07-27
Rafiq Lamptey Millwall · 2026-07-29
Liam Jessop Lincoln Red Imps · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Ashton Rinaldo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Liam Jessop Portadown · 2026-06-29
Bailey Hobson Harrogate · 2026-06-29
Armando Dobra Leyton Orient · 2026-06-29
Freddie Ladapo no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Janoi Donacien Northampton · 2026-06-29
Patrick Madden no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jamie Grimes Boston Utd · 2026-06-29
John Fleck no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Adam Lewis AFC Fylde · 2026-06-30
Vontae Daley-Campbell Southend · 2026-07-04
Sammy Braybrooke Leicester · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Kyle McFadzean
D
Chesterfield
League Two
2986
41
2
0
96
Dilan Markanday
M
Chesterfield
League Two
2439
35
6
5
93
Tom Naylor
M
Chesterfield
League Two
2776
41
8
1
88
Ryan Stirk
M
Chesterfield
League Two
2842
35
1
1
85
Liam Mandeville
M
Chesterfield
League Two
2277
42
6
9
84
Ryan Boot
G
Chesterfield
League Two
630
27
0
0
98
Exeterprojected 68 pts
· band 57–79 · 1.35 scored and 1.22
conceded per game · Kevin McDonald
We project 68 points (57–79), against a division average of 63. Last season: 49 points in League One, finishing 21st. What pushes them up: squad quality (+4), ball-winning (+2) points. 35 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (10 of 23 players). 8 of the 20 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 12. Squad value on our player feed: €5.1m across 17 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+4.1
ball-winning
+1.8
the club’s own last season
-0.5
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
attacking end
-0.2
In since 1 May
Josh Gordon Walsall · 2026-06-30
Gwion Edwards Morecambe · 2026-06-30
Taylor Perry Shrewsbury · 2026-07-16
Tom Dean Truro · 2026-05-30
Kieran Wilson Truro · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Jack Aitchison Bristol Rovers · 2026-06-29
Jack McMillan Falkirk · 2026-06-29
Ilmari Niskanen Blackpool · 2026-06-29
Danny Andrew Fleetwood · 2026-06-29
Pierce Sweeney Cheltenham · 2026-06-29
Josh Magennis Stevenage · 2026-06-29
Johnly Yfeko Kilmarnock · 2026-07-29
Akeel Higgins West Brom · 2026-05-30
Joe Whitworth Crystal Palace · 2026-05-30
Ethan Brierley Brentford · 2026-05-30
Carlos Mendes Bolton · 2026-05-30
Ryan Rydel Stockport County · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Jack Fitzwater
D
Exeter
League One
2511
29
1
1
94
Reece Cole
F
Exeter
League One
1953
34
7
4
94
Jayden Wareham
F
Exeter
League One
3493
45
19
2
75
Jack Bycroft
G
Exeter
League One
637
45
1
0
100
Edward James
D
Exeter
League One
408
5
0
0
90
Luca Woodhouse
D
Exeter
League One
1985
38
1
2
51
Barnetprojected 67 pts
· band 56–78 · 1.37 scored and 1.23
conceded per game · Dean Brennan
We project 67 points (56–78), against a division average of 63. Last season: 76 points in League Two, finishing 8th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+4), the club’s own last season (+2) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-1) points. 69 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (14 of 29 players). 15 of the 32 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €4.9m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+3.9
the club’s own last season
+1.7
ball-winning
-1.5
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
attacking end
+0.1
In since 1 May
Anthony Haralambous Barnet · 2026-06-30
Aaron Talwar Barnet · 2026-06-30
Isiah Noel-Williams Hemel Hempstead · 2026-06-30
Craig Farquhar Crystal Palace · 2026-06-30
Zac Williams Crewe · 2026-06-30
Jack Maskell Darlington · 2026-06-30
Tom Knowles Forest Green · 2026-06-30
Charlie Lakin Walsall · 2026-06-30
Taye Ashby-Hammond Stevenage · 2026-06-30
Brandon Comley Walsall · 2026-06-30
Will Wright Swindon · 2026-07-09
Oisin Gallagher Lincoln · 2026-07-20
Out since 1 May
Joe Wright Billericay · 2026-06-29
Callum Stead Cambridge Utd · 2026-06-29
Ryan Glover Stockport County · 2026-06-29
Joe Kizzi Hornchurch · 2026-06-29
Emmanuel Osadebe Sutton · 2026-06-29
Owen Evans Altrincham · 2026-06-29
Joe Rye Tamworth · 2026-07-09
Britt Assombalonga Harborough · 2026-07-21
Oliver Hawkins Eastleigh · 2026-07-30
Phillip Chinedu Leyton Orient · 2026-05-30
Ben Winterburn Bournemouth · 2026-05-30
Ronnie Stutter Chelsea · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Nnamdi Ofoborh
M
Barnet
League Two
3426
43
5
2
94
Adam Senior
M
Barnet
League Two
3897
45
7
3
88
Matthew Cox
G
Shrewsbury
League Two
1620
22
0
0
96
Daniele Collinge
D
Barnet
League Two
3714
42
2
1
79
Mark Shelton
M
Barnet
League Two
2852
41
8
6
78
Kabongo Tshimanga
F
Barnet
League Two
1721
20
11
1
86
Colchesterprojected 67 pts
· band 56–78 · 1.38 scored and 1.26
conceded per game · Danny Cowley
We project 67 points (56–78), against a division average of 63. Last season: 66 points in League Two, finishing 12th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+8), the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-3), attacking end (-2) points. 55 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (9 of 26 players). 13 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 13. Squad value on our player feed: €3.1m across 19 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+7.9
ball-winning
-2.6
attacking end
-1.6
the club’s own last season
+0.7
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Sean Raggett Rotherham · 2026-06-30
Jake Leake Oldham · 2026-07-01
Paul Digby Dundee FC · 2026-07-06
Bradley Ihionvien Peterborough · 2026-07-08
Leon Chiwome AFC Wimbledon · 2026-07-30
Kien Connolly Dag · 2026-05-30
John-Kymani Gordon Rochdale · 2026-05-30
Jack Baldwin Eastleigh · 2026-05-30
Makise Evans Cray Valley · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Kyreece Lisbie Reading · 2026-06-29
Owura Edwards Peterborough · 2026-06-29
John-Kymani Gordon no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Arthur Read York City · 2026-06-29
Dominic Gape no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Matt Macey Wycombe · 2026-06-29
Jack Baldwin Hornchurch · 2026-06-29
Tom Flanagan no club recorded · 2026-07-09
Finley Barbrook Ipswich · 2026-05-29
Micah Mbick Charlton · 2026-05-30
Romeo Akachukwu Southampton · 2026-05-30
Fin Back Wycombe · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Jack Tucker
D
Colchester
League Two
3966
44
2
1
100
Jack Payne
M
Colchester
League Two
2935
38
12
6
91
Teddy Bishop
M
Colchester
League Two
2319
33
0
2
90
Robert Hunt
M
Colchester
League Two
2716
44
0
1
79
Frankie Terry
D
Colchester
League Two
1086
23
0
2
92
Ellis Iandolo
D
Colchester
League Two
1531
19
0
2
85
Bristol Roversprojected 66 pts
· band 55–77 · 1.32 scored and 1.23
conceded per game · Steve Evans
We project 66 points (55–77), against a division average of 63. Last season: 62 points in League Two, finishing 14th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. 72 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (20 of 34 players). 2 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 24. Squad value on our player feed: €6.9m across 31 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
ball-winning
+2.5
attacking end
+0.6
the club’s own last season
+0.5
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
squad quality
+0.0
In since 1 May
Bobby Kamwa Newport · 2026-06-30
Kofi Balmer Motherwell · 2026-06-30
Ciaran Kelly Bradford City · 2026-06-30
Jack Aitchison Exeter · 2026-06-30
Thomas James Leyton Orient · 2026-06-30
Ben Purrington Cambridge Utd · 2026-06-30
Ollie Dewsbury Weston-super-Mare · 2026-05-30
Jed Ward Yeovil · 2026-05-30
Kamil Conteh Lincoln · 2026-06-29
Isaac Hutchinson Cheltenham · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Joel Senior Tranmere · 2026-06-29
Luke Thomas St. Mirren · 2026-06-29
Kamil Conteh Bromley · 2026-07-07
Jed Ward Walsall · 2026-07-08
Tom Lockyer Melbourne Victory · 2026-07-09
Isaac Hutchinson Doncaster · 2026-07-18
Tom English Cardiff Metropolitan · 2026-07-25
Kane Thompson-Sommers MK Dons · 2026-05-30
Kofi Balmer Motherwell · 2026-05-30
Yusuf Akhamrich Tottenham · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Kofi Balmer
D
Bristol Rovers
League Two
1831
21
2
2
98
Bobby Kamwa
F
Newport
League Two
2557
40
5
3
90
Ellis Harrison
F
Bristol Rovers
League Two
1893
38
11
1
89
Richard Smallwood
M
Tranmere
League Two
1700
28
0
1
85
Josh McEachran
M
Bristol Rovers
League Two
1541
23
1
1
81
Jack Sparkes
D
Bristol Rovers
League Two
3395
41
2
3
71
Port Valeprojected 63 pts
· band 52–74 · 1.25 scored and 1.28
conceded per game · Jon Brady
We project 63 points (52–74), against a division average of 63. Last season: 42 points in League One, finishing 22nd. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+3) points. What pulls them down: the club’s own last season (-1), attacking end (-1) points. 68 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (21 of 35 players). 8 of the 33 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 25. Squad value on our player feed: €9.0m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
ball-winning
+2.6
the club’s own last season
-1.2
attacking end
-0.6
squad quality
-0.4
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Jackson Smith Barnsley · 2026-06-30
Matthew Craig Tottenham · 2026-06-30
Jasper Moon Burton · 2026-06-30
Kyle Dempsey Bolton · 2026-06-30
Mason Terry West Ham · 2026-07-05
Oliver Lynch Luton · 2026-07-07
Mo Faal Wrexham · 2026-07-07
Max Watters Barnsley · 2026-07-15
Lewis Montsma Dundee FC · 2026-07-30
Aaron McGowan Tranmere · 2026-07-30
Rico Richards Walsall · 2026-05-30
Jesse Debrah Bromley · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Arron Davies Cardiff Metropolitan · 2026-06-29
Ruari Paton St Johnstone · 2026-06-29
Jordan Shipley Cheltenham · 2026-06-29
Mitchell Clark Swindon · 2026-06-29
Jack Shorrock Sligo Rovers · 2026-07-27
Rico Richards Southend · 2026-07-29
Martin Sherif Everton · 2026-05-30
Dajaune Brown Derby · 2026-05-30
Joe Gauci Aston Villa · 2026-05-30
Ethon Archer Luton · 2026-06-29
Elijah Campbell Everton · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Ben Garrity
M
Port Vale
League One
1846
24
0
1
80
Liam Gordon
D
Port Vale
League One
1622
28
0
0
77
Jayden Stockley
F
Port Vale
League One
963
27
3
0
87
Connor Hall
D
Port Vale
League One
3223
38
2
0
64
Kyle Dempsey
M
Bolton
League One
1377
29
3
2
77
John Kyle
D
Port Vale
League One
1885
28
1
0
69
Oldhamprojected 63 pts
· band 52–74 · 1.29 scored and 1.30
conceded per game · Micky Mellon
We project 63 points (52–74), against a division average of 63. Last season: 68 points in League Two, finishing 10th. What pushes them up: squad quality (+2), the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-2), ball-winning (-1) points. 78 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (13 of 25 players). 8 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €3.7m across 25 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
+1.9
attacking end
-1.7
ball-winning
-0.9
the club’s own last season
+0.8
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Aston Wilson Barnsley · 2026-06-30
Keenan Appiah-Forson Southend · 2026-06-30
Gus Scott-Morriss Southend · 2026-06-30
Oliver Norburn Notts Co · 2026-06-30
Noah Chilvers Ross County · 2026-07-07
Ryan Delaney Swindon · 2026-07-12
Zain Tahir Sheffield Utd U21 · 2026-07-26
Favour Fawunmi Stoke · 2026-07-29
Kian Harratt Brackley Town · 2026-05-30
Billy Waters FC Halifax · 2026-05-30
Kieron Morris FC Halifax · 2026-05-30
Josh Kay Macclesfield · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Dynel Simeu TNS · 2026-06-29
Reagan Ogle Scunthorpe · 2026-06-29
Tom Conlon Tranmere · 2026-06-29
Tom Donaghy Radcliffe · 2026-06-30
Jake Leake Colchester · 2026-06-30
Joe Garner Morecambe · 2026-07-05
Kian Harratt Worksop · 2026-07-14
Josh Kay Macclesfield · 2026-07-30
Kai Payne Wigan · 2026-05-30
Michael Mellon Burnley U21 · 2026-05-30
Fabio Jalo Barnsley · 2026-06-29
Kane Taylor Aston Villa · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Ryan Woods
M
Oldham
League Two
3250
40
0
4
95
Matthew Hudson
G
Oldham
League Two
3663
41
0
1
82
Manny Monthe
D
Oldham
League Two
3690
41
1
2
79
Tom Pett
M
Oldham
League Two
3003
35
2
2
77
Mike Fondop-Talum
F
Oldham
League Two
2473
38
6
4
77
Ryan Delaney
D
Newport
League Two
1447
18
1
0
75
Fleetwoodprojected 62 pts
· band 51–73 · 1.27 scored and 1.30
conceded per game · Matthew Lawlor
We project 62 points (51–73), against a division average of 63. Last season: 61 points in League Two, finishing 15th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: attacking end (-2) points. 52 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (10 of 25 players). 10 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 14. Squad value on our player feed: €3.2m across 18 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
attacking end
-1.7
ball-winning
+1.0
the club’s own last season
+0.4
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
squad quality
+0.1
In since 1 May
Joshua Thomas Swansea · 2026-06-30
Danny Andrew Exeter · 2026-06-30
Kane Thompson-Sommers MK Dons · 2026-07-01
Andy Cannon Wrexham · 2026-07-13
James Pradic Preston · 2026-07-27
Noah Mawene Preston · 2026-07-27
Jake Batty Swindon · 2026-07-27
Jesse Dempsey Waterford · 2026-07-30
Mikey Lane Hereford · 2026-05-30
Zech Medley Bromley · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Owen Devonport Buxton · 2026-06-29
Luke Hewitson Chester · 2026-06-29
Harrison Holgate no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jordan Davies Tranmere · 2026-06-29
Mathew Virtue-Thick Swindon · 2026-06-29
James Bolton no club recorded · 2026-06-29
James Norwood no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Zech Medley York City · 2026-07-05
Elliot Bonds Salford · 2026-07-12
George Morrison Stoke City U21 · 2026-07-26
Toby Mullarkey Carlisle · 2026-07-26
Noah Mawene Waterford · 2026-07-28
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Mark Helm
M
Fleetwood
League Two
3222
44
10
5
90
Harrison Neal
M
Fleetwood
League Two
2506
42
1
2
89
Shaun Rooney
D
Fleetwood
League Two
1864
22
1
0
80
Danny Andrew
D
Exeter
League One
1546
21
0
1
66
Lewis McCann
M
Fleetwood
League Two
829
16
1
0
73
Ronan Coughlan
F
Fleetwood
League Two
437
10
1
1
75
Creweprojected 60 pts
· band 49–71 · 1.24 scored and 1.31
conceded per game · Lee Bell
We project 60 points (49–71), against a division average of 63. Last season: 67 points in League Two, finishing 11th. What pushes them up: the club’s own last season (+1) points. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-3), squad quality (-1) points. 64 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (13 of 24 players). 9 of the 23 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 14. Squad value on our player feed: €4.8m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
ball-winning
-2.9
the club’s own last season
+0.9
squad quality
-0.7
attacking end
+0.4
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Jordan Gibson Doncaster · 2026-06-30
Luke Offord MK Dons · 2026-06-30
Joe White Newcastle · 2026-07-15
Jordan Hodkin Bamber Bridge · 2026-05-30
Fin Roberts Chester · 2026-05-30
Zac Williams Kilmarnock · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Jordan Hodkin no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Zac Williams Barnet · 2026-06-29
Charlie Finney no club recorded · 2026-06-29
James Connolly Walsall · 2026-06-29
Harrison Sanders Max Notts Co · 2026-06-29
Shilow Tracey no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Omar Bogle no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Louis Moult AFC Telford · 2026-06-29
Jack Powell Hornchurch · 2026-07-01
Oliver Armstrong no club recorded · 2026-07-30
Alfie Pond Wolves · 2026-05-30
Tommi O'Reilly Aston Villa · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Mickey Demetriou
D
Crewe
League Two
3188
38
3
3
99
Josh March
F
Crewe
League Two
3064
40
11
5
86
Reece Hutchinson
D
Crewe
League Two
3854
45
4
5
68
Matus Holicek
M
Crewe
League Two
2315
35
3
1
68
Conor Thomas
M
Crewe
League Two
1582
27
3
0
71
Calum Agius
M
Crewe
League Two
2950
40
6
2
62
Rotherhamprojected 60 pts
· band 49–71 · 1.18 scored and 1.29
conceded per game · Lee Clark
We project 60 points (49–71), against a division average of 63. Last season: 41 points in League One, finishing 23rd. What pushes them up: attacking end (+2), ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), the club’s own last season (-2) points. 57 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (15 of 32 players). 7 of the 27 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 20. Squad value on our player feed: €9.7m across 30 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-4.4
attacking end
+1.9
the club’s own last season
-1.7
ball-winning
+1.3
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Alfie Ramsell Rotherham · 2026-06-30
Fabio Tavares Burton · 2026-06-30
Aaron Nemane MK Dons · 2026-07-06
Jamie Jellis Walsall · 2026-07-09
Ossama Ashley Salford · 2026-07-09
Jili Buyabu Sheffield Utd · 2026-07-27
Paul Mullin Wrexham · 2026-07-28
Sean Raggett Cambridge Utd · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Josh Ayres Woking · 2026-06-29
Jack Holmes Boston Utd · 2026-06-29
Dru Yearwood Chaves · 2026-06-29
Joe Powell Salford · 2026-06-29
Shaun McWilliams Cheltenham · 2026-06-29
Jordan Hugill Hartlepool · 2026-06-29
Sean Raggett Colchester · 2026-06-29
Zak Jules Eyupspor · 2026-07-05
Duncan Watmore no club recorded · 2026-07-07
Sam Nombe MK Dons · 2026-07-22
Gabriele Biancheri no club recorded · 2026-05-02
Daniel Gore Manchester Utd · 2026-05-02
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Aaron Nemane
F
MK Dons
League Two
1964
43
2
3
82
Emmanuel Adegboyega
D
Rotherham
League One
596
12
1
0
89
Reece James
M
Rotherham
League One
3072
37
1
2
58
Paul Mullin
F
Wigan
League One
581
18
4
1
82
Hamish Douglas
M
Rotherham
League One
711
15
1
0
76
Ted Cann
G
Rotherham
League One
1350
43
0
0
63
Accringtonprojected 59 pts
· band 48–70 · 1.21 scored and 1.34
conceded per game · John Doolan
We project 59 points (48–70), against a division average of 63. Last season: 53 points in League Two, finishing 16th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-1), attacking end (-1), the club’s own last season (-1) points. 80 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (15 of 24 players). 11 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €2.3m across 17 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-1.4
attacking end
-1.1
the club’s own last season
-0.7
ball-winning
-0.6
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Tom Moore Southport · 2026-06-30
Louie Moulden Norwich · 2026-06-30
Stefan Mols Tamworth · 2026-06-30
Cole Stockton Salford · 2026-07-08
David Tutonda Rochdale · 2026-07-15
Charlie Caton Hartlepool · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
David Abimbola Bolton · 2026-05-30
Isaac Heath Everton · 2026-05-30
Luke Butterfield Chesterfield · 2026-05-30
Oliver Wright Southampton · 2026-05-30
Patrick Madden Chesterfield · 2026-05-30
Joe Bauress Burnley · 2026-05-31
I. Heath Everton · 2026-07-01
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Shaun Whalley
F
Accrington
League Two
2826
33
5
10
89
Isaac Sinclair
F
Accrington
League Two
3111
38
5
4
87
Farrend Rawson
D
Accrington
League Two
2796
33
2
0
87
Charlie Brown
F
Accrington
League Two
1476
43
0
3
80
Seamus Conneely
M
Accrington
League Two
2068
43
1
0
64
Liam Coyle
M
Accrington
League Two
1680
24
0
1
64
Tranmereprojected 59 pts
· band 47–70 · 1.20 scored and 1.34
conceded per game · Pete Wild
We project 59 points (47–70), against a division average of 63. Last season: 41 points in League Two, finishing 21st. What pulls them down: ball-winning (-2), the club’s own last season (-2) points. 53 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (12 of 30 players). 2 of the 18 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €4.0m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
ball-winning
-2.1
the club’s own last season
-2.0
squad quality
+0.4
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
attacking end
-0.3
In since 1 May
Jacob Slater Brighton · 2026-06-30
Joel Senior Bristol Rovers · 2026-06-30
Tom Conlon Oldham · 2026-06-30
Bobby Faulkner Doncaster · 2026-07-15
Zane Okoro Lincoln · 2026-07-20
Jordan Davies Fleetwood · 2026-07-20
Sam Taylor Linfield · 2026-05-30
Josh Davison Cheltenham · 2026-05-30
Harvey Saunders Eastleigh · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Sol Solomon Southport · 2026-06-29
Sam Taylor Altrincham · 2026-06-29
Josh Davison Shrewsbury · 2026-06-29
Ethan Bristow no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Harvey Saunders Northampton · 2026-06-29
Omari Patrick no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Cameron Norman Newport · 2026-06-29
Aaron McGowan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Kaiyne Woolery no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Kristian Dennis Altrincham · 2026-06-29
Jason Lowe no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Nohan Kenneh M. Nazareth · 2026-07-08
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Sam Finley
M
Tranmere
League Two
2299
29
2
0
95
Charlie Whitaker
M
Tranmere
League Two
2812
39
10
3
86
Tom Conlon
M
Oldham
League Two
990
11
0
2
98
Connor Jennings
F
Tranmere
League Two
1245
27
4
3
88
Joe Murphy
G
Tranmere
League Two
1873
26
0
0
78
Joe Ironside
F
Tranmere
League Two
2253
35
5
2
74
Cheltenhamprojected 57 pts
· band 46–68 · 1.17 scored and 1.37
conceded per game · Steve Cotterill
We project 57 points (46–68), against a division average of 63. Last season: 52 points in League Two, finishing 18th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-3), attacking end (-2), the club’s own last season (-1) points. 48 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (10 of 31 players). 1 of the 17 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 16. Squad value on our player feed: €3.3m across 24 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-2.9
attacking end
-1.8
the club’s own last season
-0.8
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
ball-winning
+0.1
In since 1 May
Charlie McCann Barrow · 2026-06-30
Joe Tomlinson MK Dons · 2026-06-30
Jordan Shipley Port Vale · 2026-06-30
Pierce Sweeney Exeter · 2026-06-30
Shaun McWilliams Rotherham · 2026-07-16
Wyll Stanway Barrow · 2026-07-17
Harry Tustin Hereford · 2026-05-30
Tommy Backwell Weston-super-Mare · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Arkell Jude-Boyd Shrewsbury · 2026-06-29
Ben Stevenson no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Tommy Backwell Southend · 2026-07-20
Jordan Thomas Doncaster · 2026-07-26
Cole Deeming West Brom · 2026-05-30
Jake Bickerstaff Wrexham · 2026-05-30
Josh Davison Tranmere · 2026-05-30
Sam Sherring MK Dons · 2026-05-30
Jakubas Mazionis Ipswich U21 · 2026-05-31
Harry Ashfield Wrexham · 2026-06-29
Mo Faal Wrexham · 2026-06-29
Isaac Hutchinson Bristol Rovers · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Charlie McCann
M
Barrow
League Two
2745
35
5
1
92
Pierce Sweeney
D
Exeter
League One
3168
39
2
0
78
Luke Young
M
Cheltenham
League Two
3603
45
2
5
82
Jordan Shipley
M
Port Vale
League One
1494
31
0
4
62
Joe Tomlinson
M
MK Dons
League Two
835
26
0
0
73
George Miller
F
Cheltenham
League Two
1582
31
7
1
67
Northamptonprojected 57 pts
· band 46–68 · 1.15 scored and 1.35
conceded per game · Colin Calderwood
We project 57 points (46–68), against a division average of 63. Last season: 35 points in League One, finishing 24th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+1) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-5), the club’s own last season (-2) points. 65 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (16 of 24 players). 7 of the 28 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 21. Squad value on our player feed: €8.3m across 27 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-4.5
the club’s own last season
-1.8
ball-winning
+1.1
attacking end
-0.4
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
George Daldy Northampton · 2026-06-30
James Maxwell Doncaster · 2026-06-30
Zach Jeacock Lincoln · 2026-06-30
Harvey Saunders Tranmere · 2026-06-30
Janoi Donacien Chesterfield · 2026-06-30
Logan Briggs Leicester · 2026-07-01
Matthew Warhurst Manchester City · 2026-07-20
Connor Lemonheigh-Evans MK Dons · 2026-07-21
Joshua Tomlinson Bedford · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Cameron McGeehan Barnsley · 2026-06-29
Lee Burge no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Nesta Guinness-Walker Aberdeen · 2026-07-06
Theo Avery Ilkeston · 2026-07-29
Jake Evans Leicester · 2026-05-30
Michael Forbes West Ham · 2026-05-30
Terry Taylor Charlton · 2026-05-30
Ben Hammond Nottingham · 2026-06-29
Kyle McAdam Nottingham U21 · 2026-06-29
Jordan Thorniley Oxford Utd · 2026-06-30
Zach Jeacock Lincoln · 2027-05-31
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Dean Campbell
M
Northampton
League One
3297
40
0
4
92
Ross Fitzsimons
G
Northampton
League One
2250
43
0
0
76
Jon Guthrie
D
Northampton
League One
1107
18
1
1
84
Sam Hoskins
F
Northampton
League One
2704
39
6
0
56
James Maxwell
D
Doncaster
League One
1460
25
0
2
59
Joe Wormleighton
D
Northampton
League One
676
19
0
0
60
Shrewsburyprojected 55 pts
· band 43–66 · 1.12 scored and 1.38
conceded per game
We project 55 points (43–66), against a division average of 63. Last season: 49 points in League Two, finishing 19th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-6), the club’s own last season (-1), ball-winning (-1) points. 68 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (13 of 27 players). 9 of the 26 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 17. Squad value on our player feed: €4.0m across 23 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-6.3
the club’s own last season
-0.9
ball-winning
-0.7
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
attacking end
-0.1
In since 1 May
Arkell Jude-Boyd Cheltenham · 2026-06-30
Byron Pendleton Birmingham · 2026-06-30
Josh Davison Tranmere · 2026-06-30
Isaac Fletcher Barrow · 2026-06-30
Jack Price Brackley Town · 2026-07-01
Jay Turner-Cooke FC Halifax · 2026-07-03
Joseph Gbode Luton · 2026-07-12
Sam Proctor Aston Villa · 2026-07-16
Harrison Biggins Newport · 2026-05-30
Alex Gilliead Carlisle · 2026-05-30
Callum Stewart Aldershot · 2026-06-29
Out since 1 May
Harrison Biggins Newport · 2026-06-29
Nick Freeman no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Isaac Godwin TNS · 2026-07-04
Taylor Perry Exeter · 2026-07-15
Iwan Morgan Brentford · 2026-05-02
Tommy McDermott Burnley · 2026-05-12
Trey Samuel-Ogunsuyi Sunderland · 2026-05-30
Ismeal Kabia Arsenal · 2026-05-30
Bradley Ihionvien Peterborough · 2026-05-30
Temple Ojinnaka Wolves · 2026-05-30
Matthew Cox Brentford · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Sam Clucas
M
Shrewsbury
League Two
2460
32
1
5
86
William Boyle
D
Shrewsbury
League Two
3494
40
4
3
72
Sam Stubbs
D
Shrewsbury
League Two
2274
34
2
2
72
Thomas Sang
M
Shrewsbury
League Two
2306
36
2
2
56
Isaac England
D
Shrewsbury
League Two
433
26
0
0
30
Kevin Berkoe
M
Shrewsbury
League Two
1498
18
0
2
50
Gillinghamprojected 54 pts
· band 43–65 · 1.13 scored and 1.39
conceded per game · Gareth Ainsworth
We project 54 points (43–65), against a division average of 63. Last season: 53 points in League Two, finishing 17th. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), ball-winning (-3) points. 66 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (17 of 26 players). 14 of the 37 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 23. Squad value on our player feed: €5.1m across 26 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-4.3
ball-winning
-3.3
the club’s own last season
-0.6
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
attacking end
-0.1
In since 1 May
Zane Albarus Brighton · 2026-06-30
Will Goodwin Oxford Utd · 2026-06-30
James Brophy Cambridge Utd · 2026-06-30
Kadeem Harris Salford · 2026-06-30
Liam Gordon Motherwell · 2026-06-30
Lennon Maclorg Charlton · 2026-07-02
Oliver Wright Southampton · 2026-07-02
Samuel Tabares Southampton · 2026-07-28
Logan Dobbs Ramsgate · 2026-05-30
Marcus Wyllie Ebbsfleet · 2026-05-30
Taite Holtam Cray Valley · 2026-05-30
Elliott Nevitt Cambridge Utd · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Josh Andrews Grimsby · 2026-06-29
Max Clark no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Lenni Cirino Hednesford · 2026-06-30
Remeao Hutton Chesterfield · 2026-07-15
Shadrach Ogie Woking · 2026-07-23
Sam Gale Barnsley · 2026-07-29
Travis Akomeah Watford · 2026-05-30
Jonny Smith Wigan · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Armani Little
M
Gillingham
League Two
2570
32
5
3
88
James Brophy
M
Cambridge Utd
League Two
2864
46
3
8
80
Robbie McKenzie
M
Gillingham
League Two
3058
37
4
0
73
Ethan Coleman
M
Gillingham
League Two
1991
32
0
1
75
Bradley Dack
M
Gillingham
League Two
2475
41
7
1
66
Garath McCleary
M
Gillingham
League Two
1363
26
4
3
69
Newportprojected 54 pts
· band 43–65 · 1.09 scored and 1.39
conceded per game
We project 54 points (43–65), against a division average of 63. Last season: 43 points in League Two, finishing 20th. What pushes them up: ball-winning (+2) points. What pulls them down: squad quality (-8), the club’s own last season (-2), attacking end (-1) points. 41 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (10 of 29 players). 7 of the 19 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 12. Squad value on our player feed: €3.0m across 22 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-8.5
ball-winning
+2.0
the club’s own last season
-1.6
attacking end
-0.8
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Yahya Bamba Forest Green · 2026-06-30
Dan Sassi Blackpool · 2026-06-30
Kieron Evans Eastleigh · 2026-06-30
Harrison Biggins Shrewsbury · 2026-06-30
Cameron Norman Tranmere · 2026-06-30
Kyle Cameron Bromley · 2026-06-30
Christian Doidge Forest Green · 2026-06-30
Jack Norris Barry · 2026-05-30
Riley Lonergan Newport City · 2026-05-30
Keenan Patten Barry · 2026-05-30
Out since 1 May
Jack Norris no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Nelson Sanca no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Riley Lonergan no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Michael Spellman no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Jaden Warner no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Bobby Kamwa Bristol Rovers · 2026-06-29
Matthew Baker Notts Co · 2026-06-29
Anthony Driscoll-Glennon no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Courtney Baker-Richardson Tranmere · 2026-06-29
Liam Shephard Penybont · 2026-07-01
Lewis Jamieson Ross County · 2026-07-21
Nathaniel Opoku Leicester · 2026-05-30
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Cameron Norman
D
Tranmere
League Two
2176
39
2
1
75
Lee Jenkins
D
Newport
League Two
2627
34
1
2
72
Harrison Biggins
M
Newport
League Two
1692
21
3
2
48
Matt Smith
M
Newport
League Two
971
25
0
2
38
Gerard Garner
F
Newport
League Two
1237
29
2
1
27
Ciaran Brennan
M
Newport
League Two
1099
29
0
0
23
Crawleyprojected 53 pts
· band 42–64 · 1.10 scored and 1.42
conceded per game
We project 53 points (42–64), against a division average of 63. Last season: 40 points in League Two, finishing 22nd. What pulls them down: squad quality (-4), attacking end (-2), the club’s own last season (-2) points. 37 per cent of the minutes they played last season are still in the building (10 of 34 players). 12 of the 24 registered players have no season in our data, so the projection is built on the other 12. Squad value on our player feed: €5.2m across 28 players — recorded here for context, it is not in the model.
Points, against the division average
Where it comes from
Pts
squad quality
-4.1
attacking end
-2.5
the club’s own last season
-2.2
ball-winning
-0.5
minutes from higher divisions
-0.4
In since 1 May
Pele Arganese-McDermott Tottenham · 2026-06-30
Stephen Duke-McKenna Harrogate · 2026-06-30
Vito Mannone Lille · 2026-06-30
Jude Arthurs Bromley · 2026-07-02
Ty Ewens-Findlay Charlton · 2026-07-08
Oluwalopemiwa Aderoju Peterborough · 2026-07-09
Gianmarco Di Biase Juventus · 2026-07-09
Malcolm Ebiowei Blackpool · 2026-07-23
Klaudio Krasniqi Glacis United · 2026-07-23
Jackson Izquierdo Crystal Palace · 2026-07-24
Omari Mrisho Huddersfield · 2026-07-27
Nathan Tinsdale Hull · 2026-07-31
Out since 1 May
William Heater no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Louis Flower no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Antony Papadopoulos Dag · 2026-06-29
Josh Flint no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Harry Forster Dorking · 2026-06-29
Max Anderson no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Taylor Richards no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Joe Wollacott no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Theo Vassell no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Harry McKirdy no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Reece Brown no club recorded · 2026-06-29
Scott Malone no club recorded · 2026-06-29
The six the model leans on most
Player
Pos
Where in 2025/26
Division
Mins
Apps
G
A
Rating pct
Charlie Barker
D
Crawley
League Two
3735
45
1
2
76
Stephen Duke-McKenna
M
Harrogate
League Two
1571
29
5
1
70
Kellan Gordon
D
Crawley
League Two
1100
14
1
0
62
Lewis Richards
D
Crawley
League Two
702
15
0
0
58
Akinwale Odimayo
D
Crawley
League Two
480
22
0
0
35
Danny Cashman
F
Crawley
League Two
298
5
0
0
20
What this does not know.
Squads are as our club feed returned them
on 2026-08-12, and the
window is still open — a signing made after that is missing, and the model would rate him if
he were there. 182 of the 613 registered players have no measured
season in our data at all: academy graduates and men signed from divisions we do not cover. They
are simply left out of their club’s number rather than guessed at — which is its own
kind of blindness, and the count is printed on every club card. We tried making the count of them an
input: it improved the backtest and we dropped it anyway, because in the backtest a squad is the
men who played and today it is the men a club has registered, so clubs with large academies were
being marked down for paperwork. Ratings come from our
match-level player records, which start to thin out below the fourth tier. The model has no
transfer fees, no injuries, no coaches, no budgets and no pre-season, and it treats last
season’s minutes as the guide to this season’s — so a club that has just changed
manager and bought a first eleven is exactly where it will be most wrong. It is a projection of a
season, not a guide to a match, and it is not a betting product.