The National League 2026/27, in numbers

English football's fifth tier kicks off on 8 August 2026. Everything below is computed from our own database: 4,192 fifth-tier league matches across eight seasons, 6,180 more from the sixth tier, every appearance and minute inside them. Built 08 August 2026.

Over the same eight seasons this division has scored more per game than any of the three EFL divisions above it and drawn fewer of its matches than all three. It has averaged 2.75 goals a game, the home side has won 42.6% of the time and only 25.2% have finished level. Last season it went further still: 2.92 a game, 56.6% of matches over 2.5, and 56.3% with both teams scoring.

The league What a promotion is worth Last season The 24 clubs The players Matchday one Method & what it cannot see

2.92goals per game, 2025/26

43%home wins, 2025/26

23%draws — lower than any EFL division

23%of all goals in the 76-90+ window

11,525goals timed to the minute

552league matches a season, 24 clubs

The league, season by season

Eight seasons of the fifth tier, play-offs excluded — those are a different competition played by six clubs. Everything is per game, because recorded match counts vary between clubs.

Season	Matches	Goals/g	Home g	Away g	Home %	Draw %	Away %	BTTS %	Over 2.5 %	Clean sheet %	Yellow/g	Red/g
2018/2019	551	2.48	1.35	1.14	41.7	25.8	32.5	47.5	45.9	52.5	3.14	0.086
2019/2020	451	2.69	1.46	1.24	40.6	27.5	31.9	55.4	51.0	44.6	3.26	0.094
2020/2021	477	2.71	1.44	1.27	42.6	22.2	35.2	48.6	52.8	51.4	3.36	0.112
2021/2022	506	2.74	1.49	1.25	44.1	22.9	33.0	50.2	49.6	49.8	3.52	0.119
2022/2023	552	2.79	1.54	1.25	44.2	25.7	30.1	56.0	50.7	44.0	3.51	0.077
2023/2024	552	2.94	1.63	1.31	42.2	25.5	32.2	59.2	55.4	40.8	4.02	0.090
2024/2025	552	2.70	1.50	1.20	42.2	28.4	29.3	54.0	50.4	46.0	3.99	0.086
2025/2026	551	2.92	1.59	1.34	43.2	23.2	33.6	56.3	56.6	43.7	3.84	0.104

How it compares with the four divisions above

The same eight seasons, measured the same way, from our own database.

Division	Rank	Matches	Goals/g	Draw %	Home %
Premier League	Tier 1	3,034	2.86	23.0	44.0
Championship	Tier 2	4,362	2.53	26.5	42.8
League One	Tier 3	4,147	2.62	25.6	43.5
League Two	Tier 4	4,142	2.53	27.0	42.6
National League	Tier 5	4,192	2.75	25.2	42.6

The fifth tier outscores every EFL division — 2.75 a game against 2.62 for the best of them — and only the Premier League, at 2.86, scores more. It also draws less than all three EFL divisions (25.2% against 25.6% for the tightest of them); at this level matches resolve. And the home advantage is real but modest: home sides score 1.50 a game to 1.25, a gap of 0.25 goals.

When the goals arrive

All 11,525 goals in our fifth-tier archive, placed to the minute.

Window	Goals	Share
1-15 min	1517	13.2%
16-30 min	1625	14.1%
31-45 min	1947	16.9%
46-60 min	1930	16.7%
61-75 min	1882	16.3%
76-90+ min	2624	22.8%

The last fifteen minutes carry 22.8% of everything — nearly 1.7 times the opening quarter of an hour. That is the single sharpest shape in this division's data and it holds in every one of the eight seasons.

What promotion and relegation are actually worth

Six of the twenty-four clubs did not play in this division last season. Rather than guess what their record means here, we measured it: every club in our archive that made the same move, and what happened to its per-game numbers when it did.

Move	Clubs	Pts/g before	Pts/g after	Points	Goals for	Goals against	After, range
Promoted from the 6th tier	24	1.93	1.14	×0.59	×0.68	×1.61	0.54–1.96
Relegated from League Two	14	0.88	1.40	×1.59	×1.46	×0.84	0.74–2.07

A club promoted from the sixth tier takes about 59% of its points rate with it: 1.93 a game becomes 1.14. Its scoring survives better than its defending — goals for fall by a factor of 0.68, goals against rise by 1.61. Coming the other way, a club relegated out of League Two goes from 0.88 points a game to 1.40, a jump of 1.59×.

The average hides the spread. Those fourteen relegated clubs landed anywhere between 0.74 and 2.07 points a game — the difference between a relegation fight and a title. The factor is the best single number available and it is still a weak one; it is used below because the alternative is to invent something.

Last season, in full

The 2025/26 fifth-tier table as our archive recorded it, sorted on points per game. Rochdale and York City went up; Brackley Town, Morecambe, Braintree and Truro went down. Eighteen of these clubs are still here.

Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts/g	Home pts/g	Away pts/g
1. York City	46	33	9	4	114	41	+73	2.35	2.39	2.30
2. Rochdale	46	33	7	6	88	41	+47	2.30	2.43	2.17
3. Carlisle	46	29	8	9	87	51	+36	2.07	2.17	1.96
4. Boreham Wood	46	27	9	10	95	58	+37	1.96	2.30	1.61
5. Southend	46	23	12	11	83	47	+36	1.76	2.00	1.52
6. Forest Green	46	23	12	11	82	52	+30	1.76	2.17	1.35
7. Scunthorpe	45	22	13	10	77	62	+15	1.76	1.77	1.74
8. FC Halifax	46	20	10	16	69	66	+3	1.52	1.61	1.43
9. Hartlepool	46	18	14	14	54	59	-5	1.48	1.61	1.35
10. Woking	46	16	15	15	69	54	+15	1.37	1.35	1.39
11. Tamworth	46	17	11	18	63	71	-8	1.35	1.65	1.04
12. Boston Utd	46	15	14	17	63	67	-4	1.28	1.17	1.39
13. Wealdstone	45	15	11	19	67	74	-7	1.24	1.70	0.77
14. Altrincham	46	17	6	23	55	65	-10	1.24	1.74	0.74
15. Solihull Moors	46	14	14	18	71	72	-1	1.22	1.22	1.22
16. Yeovil	46	15	6	25	48	68	-20	1.11	1.39	0.83
17. Eastleigh	46	13	11	22	57	80	-23	1.09	1.17	1.00
18. Gateshead	46	14	8	24	54	90	-36	1.09	0.96	1.22
19. Sutton	46	11	14	21	59	79	-20	1.02	1.09	0.96
20. Aldershot	46	13	7	26	69	87	-18	1.00	0.91	1.09
21. Brackley Town	46	10	12	24	40	75	-35	0.91	1.22	0.61
22. Morecambe	46	9	11	26	66	103	-37	0.83	0.78	0.87
23. Braintree	46	8	12	26	38	76	-38	0.78	0.96	0.61
24. Truro	46	8	10	28	42	72	-30	0.74	0.91	0.57

The 24 clubs for 2026/27

Attack and defence are our own ratings, fitted to eight seasons of results with recent matches weighted more heavily — read them as goals per game against average opposition on neutral ground. Projected points per game runs the whole division against itself, home and away, and is therefore internally consistent rather than a set of independent guesses.

Club	Background	2025/26 pts/g	Attack	Defence	Projected pts/g	Squad	Avg age
Carlisle	1 of 8 seasons here	2.07	1.91	1.00	1.94	22	26.0
Forest Green	2 of 8 seasons here	1.76	1.70	0.94	1.86	22	26.0
Southend	5 of 8 seasons here	1.76	1.54	0.91	1.78	—	—
Boreham Wood	7 of 8 seasons here	1.96	1.67	1.08	1.73	21	28.0
FC Halifax	8 of 8 seasons here	1.52	1.34	1.03	1.54	24	24.0
Scunthorpe	2 of 8 seasons here	1.76	1.63	1.31	1.54	23	26.3
Woking	7 of 8 seasons here	1.37	1.35	1.07	1.52	24	26.3
Solihull Moors	8 of 8 seasons here	1.22	1.53	1.24	1.52	24	25.4
Altrincham	6 of 8 seasons here	1.24	1.45	1.25	1.46	30	25.4
Hartlepool	6 of 8 seasons here	1.48	1.33	1.22	1.40	26	27.4
Gateshead	5 of 8 seasons here	1.09	1.52	1.44	1.37	26	25.3
Tamworth	2 of 8 seasons here	1.35	1.43	1.38	1.35	19	28.5
Boston Utd	2 of 8 seasons here	1.28	1.33	1.29	1.34	27	24.7
Barrow	relegated from League Two 2025	—	1.43	1.43	1.32	22	28.2
Sutton	5 of 8 seasons here	1.02	1.35	1.35	1.32	25	24.9
Kidderminster	promoted, 6th tier 2024/2025	—	1.28	1.30	1.30	—	—
Eastleigh	8 of 8 seasons here	1.09	1.34	1.37	1.30	21	26.1
Aldershot	8 of 8 seasons here	1.00	1.52	1.56	1.29	27	24.8
Wealdstone	6 of 8 seasons here	1.24	1.39	1.44	1.28	20	25.9
Harrogate	relegated from League Two 2025	—	1.20	1.27	1.26	23	28.5
Yeovil	6 of 8 seasons here	1.11	1.09	1.19	1.23	23	26.3
AFC Fylde	promoted, 6th tier 2022/2023	—	1.19	1.54	1.07	—	—
Worthing	promoted, 6th tier 2024/2025	—	1.16	2.03	0.78	—	—
Hornchurch	promoted, 6th tier 2024/2025	—	0.88	1.89	0.66	—	—

The table is sorted, not numbered — the whole projected range spans 59 points over a season, and the model's own measured error is larger than many of the gaps inside it.

18 of the 24 have a fifth-tier record we can read directly. The other 6 do not: Barrow, Kidderminster, Harrogate, AFC Fylde, Worthing, Hornchurch. Their ratings come from the tier factors above, applied to their last recorded season in the division they came from. For the four promoted clubs that season is 2024/25, not 2025/26 — our sixth-tier archive has no 2025/26, so their promotion campaign itself is invisible to this model. Treat those four ratings as the weakest numbers on the page.

The players

Our archive holds every appearance, minute, goal, booking and substitution in this division since 2018 — 436 players are currently listed in the squads of the 19 clubs we hold a squad for, at an average age of 26.2. A dot marks a player still on one of this season's squad lists.

Top scorers, 2025/26

Player	Goals	Assists	Apps	Minutes	Mins per goal
O. Pearce	34	9	46	3942	116
E. Dieseruvwe	27	7	42	3377	125
M. Rush ●	26	4	49	4084	157
W. Harris ●	22	5	43	3233	147
R. Linney ●	19	10	43	3660	193
C. Roberts	19	8	42	3425	180
J. Nolan	18	7	41	3236	180
Z. Brunt ●	17	12	45	3812	224
A. Dallas	17	2	43	3207	189
A. Blair ●	17	3	39	3148	185
D. Whitehall ●	17	6	42	2894	170
O. Sanderson	17	4	40	2882	170
J. Stones	17	7	41	2499	147
K. McAllister ●	16	6	43	3754	235
A. Abdulmalik ●	15	9	48	3920	261
G. Scott-Morriss	15	4	42	3539	236
M. Obiero ●	14	3	46	3213	230
D. Howe ●	13	3	43	2188	168
G. Kelly ●	13	2	38	2173	167
L. Simper	12	6	46	3752	313

Eight-season scorers

Career fifth-tier totals inside our archive window, minimum 100 appearances.

Player	Goals	Apps	Minutes	Seasons	Mins per goal
P. McCallum	125	279	20811	8	166
M. Cheek	109	259	20823	6	191
E. Dieseruvwe	91	216	15273	6	168
I. Effiong	87	275	19903	8	229
K. Tshimanga	76	144	11534	5	152
N. Kabamba	74	198	14718	6	199
A. Reid	72	240	14789	8	205
A. Dallas	69	177	12940	5	188
J. Rees	60	241	17096	6	285
M. Fondop-Talum	54	189	11044	6	205
J. Kelly	54	227	13501	7	250
D. Whitehall	53	160	9977	4	188
S. Boden	51	164	10803	5	212
H. Beautyman	51	198	14410	5	283
D. Rodney	51	161	9560	5	187

Most minutes played

The players who have simply been there. Minutes are the most reliable column we hold at this level — match totals reconcile to exactly 990 or 1320 in 99.8% of games.

Player	Minutes	Apps	Seasons
S. Johnson	31264	348	8
E. Justham	25650	286	7
C. Bush	24468	286	7
C. Howe	23584	288	8
M. Kitching	23130	295	8
F. Ilesanmi	23031	275	7
N. Ashmore	22409	261	7
M. Robinson	21913	273	7
J. McDonnell	21030	235	6
M. Cheek	20823	259	6
P. McCallum	20811	279	8
C. Ross	20790	291	7
H. Taylor	20343	242	7
M. Cousins	19999	227	6
J. Cook	19922	236	6

Discipline

Player	Red	Yellow	Apps	Mins per card
M. Fondop-Talum	6	29	189	316
M. Kosylo	5	58	240	220
C. Bush	4	61	286	376
C. Eastmond	4	32	118	272
K. Storer	3	41	168	302
J. Fyfield	3	35	253	478
D. Kelly-Evans	3	26	175	347
S. Quigley	3	23	148	393
J. Passley	3	19	115	426
B. Goodliffe	3	18	168	636
J. King	2	59	233	272
L. Hogan	2	49	266	383

Matchday one — all twelve

Saturday 8 August 2026. Probabilities are ours, from the attack and defence ratings above run through a Poisson model; where a market price exists we show what it implies, because that is the one comparison that cannot be argued with.

AFC Fylde – Wealdstone14:00

37%

24%

39%

expected goals 1.47 – 1.51 over 2.5 57% both to score 60%

market implies 46% / 26% / 28%our number differs by 11pp at most

4 previous meetings in our archive — AFC Fylde 1, 0 drawn, Wealdstone 3

last meetings: 2024: 1–2 · 2024: 1–0 (a) · 2025: 2–0

AFC Fylde: attack 1.19, defence 1.54, projected 1.07 pts/game

Wealdstone: attack 1.39, defence 1.44, projected 1.28 pts/game

Altrincham – Southend14:00

31%

27%

42%

expected goals 1.14 – 1.36 over 2.5 46% both to score 51%

market implies 22% / 24% / 54%our number differs by 12pp at most

10 previous meetings in our archive — Altrincham 4, 1 drawn, Southend 5

last meetings: 2025: 2–1 (a) · 2025: 3–0 (a) · 2026: 1–0

Altrincham: attack 1.45, defence 1.25, projected 1.46 pts/game

Southend: attack 1.54, defence 0.91, projected 1.78 pts/game

Boreham Wood – Tamworth14:00

58%

22%

20%

expected goals 1.98 – 1.09 over 2.5 59% both to score 57%

market implies 65% / 20% / 15%our number differs by 7pp at most

2 previous meetings in our archive — Boreham Wood 0, 0 drawn, Tamworth 2

last meetings: 2025: 1–2 · 2026: 3–2 (a)

Boreham Wood: attack 1.67, defence 1.08, projected 1.73 pts/game

Tamworth: attack 1.43, defence 1.38, projected 1.35 pts/game

Boston Utd – Aldershot14:00

47%

23%

30%

expected goals 1.78 – 1.39 over 2.5 62% both to score 63%

market implies 47% / 26% / 27%our number differs by 3pp at most

4 previous meetings in our archive — Boston Utd 2, 1 drawn, Aldershot 1

last meetings: 2025: 1–2 (a) · 2025: 2–3 (a) · 2025: 0–2

Boston Utd: attack 1.33, defence 1.29, projected 1.34 pts/game

Aldershot: attack 1.52, defence 1.56, projected 1.29 pts/game

Carlisle – Worthing14:00

85%

10%

expected goals 3.34 – 0.82 over 2.5 78% both to score 54%

market implies 60% / 22% / 19%our number differs by 25pp at most

no previous meeting anywhere in our eight-season archive

last meetings: —

Carlisle: attack 1.91, defence 1.00, projected 1.94 pts/game

Worthing: attack 1.16, defence 2.03, projected 0.78 pts/game

Eastleigh – Gateshead14:00

42%

24%

34%

expected goals 1.66 – 1.47 over 2.5 61% both to score 62%

market implies 42% / 25% / 33%our number differs by 2pp at most

10 previous meetings in our archive — Eastleigh 3, 3 drawn, Gateshead 4

last meetings: 2025: 1–1 · 2025: 0–2 · 2025: 1–3 (a)

Eastleigh: attack 1.34, defence 1.37, projected 1.30 pts/game

Gateshead: attack 1.52, defence 1.44, projected 1.37 pts/game

Forest Green – FC Halifax14:00

51%

26%

22%

expected goals 1.50 – 0.89 over 2.5 43% both to score 46%

market implies 58% / 24% / 19%our number differs by 6pp at most

4 previous meetings in our archive — Forest Green 2, 1 drawn, FC Halifax 1

last meetings: 2025: 2–1 (a) · 2025: 1–2 (a) · 2026: 2–1

Forest Green: attack 1.70, defence 0.94, projected 1.86 pts/game

FC Halifax: attack 1.34, defence 1.03, projected 1.54 pts/game

Harrogate – Solihull Moors14:00

35%

26%

39%

expected goals 1.28 – 1.38 over 2.5 50% both to score 54%

market implies 58% / 23% / 19%our number differs by 23pp at most

3 previous meetings in our archive — Harrogate 1, 1 drawn, Solihull Moors 1

last meetings: 2018: 3–1 · 2018: 2–0 (a) · 2019: 2–2

Harrogate: attack 1.20, defence 1.27, projected 1.26 pts/game

Solihull Moors: attack 1.53, defence 1.24, projected 1.52 pts/game

Hartlepool – Barrow14:00

47%

24%

29%

expected goals 1.63 – 1.23 over 2.5 55% both to score 57%

market implies 42% / 27% / 31%our number differs by 5pp at most

4 previous meetings in our archive — Hartlepool 1, 2 drawn, Barrow 1

last meetings: 2019: 1–0 (a) · 2019: 0–1 (a) · 2019: 2–2

Hartlepool: attack 1.33, defence 1.22, projected 1.40 pts/game

Barrow: attack 1.43, defence 1.43, projected 1.32 pts/game

Hornchurch – Kidderminster14:00

21%

24%

55%

expected goals 0.98 – 1.71 over 2.5 50% both to score 51%

market implies 36% / 27% / 37%our number differs by 18pp at most

no previous meeting anywhere in our eight-season archive

last meetings: —

Hornchurch: attack 0.88, defence 1.89, projected 0.66 pts/game

Kidderminster: attack 1.28, defence 1.30, projected 1.30 pts/game

Scunthorpe – Yeovil14:00

53%

24%

23%

expected goals 1.66 – 1.01 over 2.5 50% both to score 52%

market implies 50% / 26% / 24%our number differs by 2pp at most

4 previous meetings in our archive — Scunthorpe 3, 1 drawn, Yeovil 0

last meetings: 2022: 0–0 (a) · 2025: 1–0 · 2026: 0–3 (a)

Scunthorpe: attack 1.63, defence 1.31, projected 1.54 pts/game

Yeovil: attack 1.09, defence 1.19, projected 1.23 pts/game

Woking – Sutton14:00

50%

25%

expected goals 1.56 – 1.02 over 2.5 48% both to score 51%

market implies 47% / 26% / 27%our number differs by 3pp at most

8 previous meetings in our archive — Woking 0, 2 drawn, Sutton 6

last meetings: 2025: 1–1 (a) · 2025: 1–1 · 2026: 2–1 (a)

Woking: attack 1.35, defence 1.07, projected 1.52 pts/game

Sutton: attack 1.35, defence 1.35, projected 1.32 pts/game

How this was built, and what it cannot see

Attack and defence are fitted together on 4,192 matches by weighted maximum likelihood, with a season half-life of 1.6 — last season counts roughly three times what 2022/23 counts. The home term the fit recovers is 1.212× on goals. Clubs with no fifth-tier history are translated in with the measured tier factors, not assumed average.

Then we check it, by fitting on everything before a season and predicting that season's matches cold, over 1,655 matches across 2023/2024, 2024/2025, 2025/2026:

Approach	Right result	Log loss	Brier	Total-goals error
Coin flip across three outcomes	—	1.099	—	—
The division's historic home/draw/away rates	42.5%	1.078	0.652	1.34
This model	45.7%	1.061	0.640	1.34

It beats knowing nothing, and it beats knowing only the base rates. It picks the right 1X2 outcome 45.7% of the time against 42.5% for always backing the home side, and misses a match's total goals by 1.34 on average. That is the accuracy on offer here, and it is not a large edge.

What this does not know. There is no expected-goals data at this level and there never has been: our source returns nothing for shots or xG in the fifth and sixth tiers while the same call for League Two returns half a megabyte. Everything here is built on goals and results alone. Attendances are absent for every match in the archive. Assists exist only from 2024/25 and only in the fifth tier, so career assist totals would be misleading and are not published. The sixth tier has no 2025/26 season in our data, which is exactly the season the four promoted clubs just played. The model uses results only — no transfers, no injuries, no managers, no budgets. It cannot see the summer it is projecting, and a club that has rebuilt its squad is precisely where it will be most wrong. It is a description of the division, not a betting product.