2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueño Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueño
Model pick: 2 de Mayo (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 0.86
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| 2 de Mayo | Sportivo Luqueño |
|---|
| League position | #8 (138 pts) | #10 (128 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*2 de Mayo shown at home, Sportivo Luqueño shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
2 de Mayo — last 5
DWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 27% of home games go over 2.5.
Sportivo Luqueño — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | 2 de Mayo (home) | Sportivo Luqueño (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Wilson Ayala (1) | Ivan Maggi (9) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 0.86):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — 2 de Mayo or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Sportivo Luqueño or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| 2 de Mayo clean sheet | 42% |
| Sportivo Luqueño clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
2 de Mayo is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. 2 de Mayo are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueño — FAQ
Who will win 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueño?
Our statistical model makes 2 de Mayo the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: 2 de Mayo 45%, draw 29%, Sportivo Luqueño 26%.
Will both teams score in 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueño?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueño?
Expected goals are 1.32 for 2 de Mayo and 0.86 for Sportivo Luqueño — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Luqueño?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for 2 de Mayo or draw is 76%.