Albion vs Progreso Prediction & Preview
Primera (Uruguay) · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA (URUGUAY)
Albion vs Progreso
Model pick: Progreso (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.28
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Albion | Progreso |
|---|
| League position | #9 (34 pts) | #16 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
*Albion shown at home, Progreso shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Albion — last 5
LLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 14% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Progreso — last 5
LLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Albion (home) | Progreso (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 14% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
Primera (Uruguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera (Uruguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.24 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Albion or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Progreso or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Albion clean sheet | 28% |
| Progreso clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Progreso is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Progreso edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Albion vs Progreso — FAQ
Who will win Albion vs Progreso?
Our statistical model makes Progreso the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Albion 35%, draw 28%, Progreso 37%.
Will both teams score in Albion vs Progreso?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Albion vs Progreso?
Expected goals are 1.24 for Albion and 1.28 for Progreso — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Albion vs Progreso?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Albion or draw is 62%.