Almería vs Cádiz Prediction & Preview
Segunda (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA (SPAIN)
Almería vs Cádiz
Model pick: Almería (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.07 – 1.01
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Almería | Cádiz |
|---|
| League position | #16 (3 pts) | #17 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Almería shown at home, Cádiz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Almería — last 5
WWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Cádiz — last 5
WLDDD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Almería (home) | Cádiz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 39% |
| Top scorer | – | Ruben Alcaraz (1) |
Segunda (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.29
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Segunda (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.07 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Almería or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Cádiz or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Almería clean sheet | 36% |
| Cádiz clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Almería is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Almería are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Almería vs Cádiz — FAQ
Who will win Almería vs Cádiz?
Our statistical model makes Almería the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Almería 58%, draw 23%, Cádiz 20%.
Will both teams score in Almería vs Cádiz?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Almería vs Cádiz?
Expected goals are 2.07 for Almería and 1.01 for Cádiz — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Almería vs Cádiz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Almería or draw is 82%.