Aluminij vs Grosuplje Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Aluminij vs Grosuplje
Model pick: Grosuplje (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.16
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aluminij | Grosuplje |
|---|
| League position | #7 (5 pts) | #8 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Aluminij shown at home, Grosuplje shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aluminij — last 5
DLLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Grosuplje — last 5
LDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aluminij (home) | Grosuplje (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 53%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.15 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Aluminij or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Grosuplje or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Aluminij clean sheet | 31% |
| Grosuplje clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Grosuplje is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Grosuplje edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Aluminij vs Grosuplje — FAQ
Who will win Aluminij vs Grosuplje?
Our statistical model makes Grosuplje the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Aluminij 35%, draw 29%, Grosuplje 36%.
Will both teams score in Aluminij vs Grosuplje?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Aluminij vs Grosuplje?
Expected goals are 1.15 for Aluminij and 1.16 for Grosuplje — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aluminij vs Grosuplje?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Aluminij or draw is 64%.