BFA Vilnius vs Babrungas Prediction & Preview
1 Lyga (Lithuania) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1 LYGA (LITHUANIA)
BFA Vilnius vs Babrungas
Model pick: BFA Vilnius (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.88 – 0.9
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| BFA Vilnius | Babrungas |
|---|
| League position | #6 (39 pts) | #1 (55 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 1.0 |
*BFA Vilnius shown at home, Babrungas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
BFA Vilnius — last 5
WDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Babrungas — last 5
LWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | BFA Vilnius (home) | Babrungas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-1-3 in 12 (1.7 / 1.1 goals per game) | 8-2-2 in 12 (1.6 / 0.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
1 Lyga (Lithuania) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.93
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 15%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 54%
Use these 1 Lyga (Lithuania) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.88 vs 0.9):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — BFA Vilnius or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Babrungas or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| BFA Vilnius clean sheet | 41% |
| Babrungas clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
BFA Vilnius is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. BFA Vilnius are backed at home, where they average 2.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ BFA Vilnius vs Babrungas — FAQ
Who will win BFA Vilnius vs Babrungas?
Our statistical model makes BFA Vilnius the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: BFA Vilnius 44%, draw 30%, Babrungas 26%.
Will both teams score in BFA Vilnius vs Babrungas?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in BFA Vilnius vs Babrungas?
Expected goals are 0.88 for BFA Vilnius and 0.9 for Babrungas — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in BFA Vilnius vs Babrungas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (17%). Double chance for BFA Vilnius or draw is 66%.