Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
Model pick: Levski Sofia (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.87 – 1.68
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Botev Plovdiv | Levski Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #6 (7 pts) | #2 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*Botev Plovdiv shown at home, Levski Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Botev Plovdiv — last 5
LWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Levski Sofia — last 5
WWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Botev Plovdiv (home) | Levski Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-0 in 3 (1.7 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Mascote (7) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.87 vs 1.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Botev Plovdiv or draw (1X) | 43% |
| Double chance — Levski Sofia or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Botev Plovdiv clean sheet | 19% |
| Levski Sofia clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Levski Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Levski Sofia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Levski Sofia the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Botev Plovdiv 21%, draw 26%, Levski Sofia 53%.
Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?
Expected goals are 0.87 for Botev Plovdiv and 1.68 for Levski Sofia — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Botev Plovdiv or draw is 43%.