CD Coria vs Barakaldo Prediction & Preview
Segunda B (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA B (SPAIN)
CD Coria vs Barakaldo
Model pick: Barakaldo (79%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 3.66
Total goals: 4.7
Over 2.5: 73%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CD Coria | Barakaldo |
|---|
| League position | #18 (0 pts) | #2 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*CD Coria shown at home, Barakaldo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CD Coria — last 5
WWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Barakaldo — last 5
DWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CD Coria (home) | Barakaldo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 42% |
Segunda B (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Segunda B (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 3.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-3 (8%) |
| Double chance — CD Coria or draw (1X) | 16% |
| Double chance — Barakaldo or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 91% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 95% / 5% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| CD Coria clean sheet | 3% |
| Barakaldo clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Barakaldo is the model's most likely outcome at
79%. Despite playing away, Barakaldo edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.7, this shapes as an open game (73% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CD Coria vs Barakaldo — FAQ
Who will win CD Coria vs Barakaldo?
Our statistical model makes Barakaldo the most likely result at 79%. Full probabilities: CD Coria 9%, draw 12%, Barakaldo 79%.
Will both teams score in CD Coria vs Barakaldo?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in CD Coria vs Barakaldo?
Expected goals are 1.02 for CD Coria and 3.66 for Barakaldo — about 4.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CD Coria vs Barakaldo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-3 (8%). Double chance for CD Coria or draw is 16%.