Central Ballester vs Leandro N. Alem Prediction & Preview
Primera C Metro (Argentina) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA C METRO (ARGENTINA)
Central Ballester vs Leandro N. Alem
Model pick: Leandro N. Alem (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.24
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Central Ballester | Leandro N. Alem |
|---|
| League position | #12 (23 pts) | #10 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.1 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 20% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Central Ballester shown at home, Leandro N. Alem shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Central Ballester — last 5
WWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Leandro N. Alem — last 5
LWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 25% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Central Ballester (home) | Leandro N. Alem (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-5 in 10 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) | 2-3-6 in 11 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 25% |
Primera C Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.78
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 25%
BTTS: 33%
Use these Primera C Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.19 vs 1.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Central Ballester or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Leandro N. Alem or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Central Ballester clean sheet | 29% |
| Leandro N. Alem clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Leandro N. Alem is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Leandro N. Alem edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Central Ballester vs Leandro N. Alem — FAQ
Who will win Central Ballester vs Leandro N. Alem?
Our statistical model makes Leandro N. Alem the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Central Ballester 35%, draw 28%, Leandro N. Alem 37%.
Will both teams score in Central Ballester vs Leandro N. Alem?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Central Ballester vs Leandro N. Alem?
Expected goals are 1.19 for Central Ballester and 1.24 for Leandro N. Alem — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Central Ballester vs Leandro N. Alem?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Central Ballester or draw is 63%.