Cerro Porteño vs Nacional Asunción Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Cerro Porteño vs Nacional Asunción
Model pick: Cerro Porteño (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.3 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Cerro Porteño | Nacional Asunción |
|---|
| League position | #1 (197 pts) | #5 (154 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 0.2 |
*Cerro Porteño shown at home, Nacional Asunción shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Cerro Porteño — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Nacional Asunción — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Cerro Porteño (home) | Nacional Asunción (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Pablo Vegetti (3) | Lorenzo Melgarejo (4) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.3 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Cerro Porteño or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Nacional Asunción or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Cerro Porteño clean sheet | 41% |
| Nacional Asunción clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cerro Porteño is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Cerro Porteño are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Cerro Porteño vs Nacional Asunción — FAQ
Who will win Cerro Porteño vs Nacional Asunción?
Our statistical model makes Cerro Porteño the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Cerro Porteño 44%, draw 29%, Nacional Asunción 27%.
Will both teams score in Cerro Porteño vs Nacional Asunción?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Cerro Porteño vs Nacional Asunción?
Expected goals are 1.3 for Cerro Porteño and 0.88 for Nacional Asunción — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Cerro Porteño vs Nacional Asunción?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Cerro Porteño or draw is 75%.