Chacarita Juniors vs San Martín Tucumán Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Chacarita Juniors vs San Martín Tucumán
Model pick: Chacarita Juniors (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 0.85
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chacarita Juniors | San Martín Tucumán |
|---|
| League position | #16 (26 pts) | #10 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*Chacarita Juniors shown at home, San Martín Tucumán shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chacarita Juniors — last 5
DLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
San Martín Tucumán — last 5
DLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chacarita Juniors (home) | San Martín Tucumán (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-2-3 in 11 (1.1 / 0.7 goals per game) | 3-4-5 in 12 (0.7 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 53% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.13
Home wins: 53%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 18%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Chacarita Juniors or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — San Martín Tucumán or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Chacarita Juniors clean sheet | 43% |
| San Martín Tucumán clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chacarita Juniors is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Chacarita Juniors are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chacarita Juniors vs San Martín Tucumán — FAQ
Who will win Chacarita Juniors vs San Martín Tucumán?
Our statistical model makes Chacarita Juniors the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Chacarita Juniors 38%, draw 32%, San Martín Tucumán 30%.
Will both teams score in Chacarita Juniors vs San Martín Tucumán?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chacarita Juniors vs San Martín Tucumán?
Expected goals are 1.02 for Chacarita Juniors and 0.85 for San Martín Tucumán — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chacarita Juniors vs San Martín Tucumán?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Chacarita Juniors or draw is 71%.