Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ukraine) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (UKRAINE)
Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh
Model pick: Chornomorets (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.89 – 0.79
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 35%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Chornomorets | Livyi Bereh |
|---|
| League position | #11 (3 pts) | #10 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
*Chornomorets shown at home, Livyi Bereh shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Chornomorets — last 5
LLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Livyi Bereh — last 5
WDDWD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 30% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Chornomorets (home) | Livyi Bereh (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 30% |
Premier League (Ukraine) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Premier League (Ukraine) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.89 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Chornomorets or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Livyi Bereh or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Chornomorets clean sheet | 45% |
| Livyi Bereh clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Chornomorets is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Chornomorets are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (65% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh — FAQ
Who will win Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model makes Chornomorets the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Chornomorets 35%, draw 34%, Livyi Bereh 30%.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Expected goals are 0.89 for Chornomorets and 0.79 for Livyi Bereh — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (19%). Double chance for Chornomorets or draw is 70%.