CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
Model pick: CSKA Sofia (69%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.96 – 0.53
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| CSKA Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|
| League position | #3 (10 pts) | #12 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.5 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*CSKA Sofia shown at home, Botev Vratsa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
CSKA Sofia — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 51% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Botev Vratsa — last 5
WDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | CSKA Sofia (home) | Botev Vratsa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 51% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 53% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Martin Petkov (4) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.96 vs 0.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — CSKA Sofia or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Botev Vratsa or draw (X2) | 28% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| CSKA Sofia clean sheet | 59% |
| Botev Vratsa clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. CSKA Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa — FAQ
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
Our statistical model makes CSKA Sofia the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: CSKA Sofia 69%, draw 20%, Botev Vratsa 10%.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
Expected goals are 1.96 for CSKA Sofia and 0.53 for Botev Vratsa — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for CSKA Sofia or draw is 91%.