Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes
Model pick: Deportivo Maipu (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.53 – 0.7
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Maipu | Quilmes |
|---|
| League position | #7 (35 pts) | #9 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 58% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Deportivo Maipu shown at home, Quilmes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Maipu — last 5
DLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Quilmes — last 5
LDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Maipu (home) | Quilmes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-3 in 12 (1.3 / 0.8 goals per game) | 1-4-7 in 12 (0.9 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.13
Home wins: 53%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 18%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.53 vs 0.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Maipu or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Quilmes or draw (X2) | 23% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Deportivo Maipu clean sheet | 50% |
| Quilmes clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Maipu is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Deportivo Maipu are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Maipu the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Maipu 72%, draw 18%, Quilmes 11%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes?
Expected goals are 2.53 for Deportivo Maipu and 0.7 for Quilmes — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Deportivo Maipu or draw is 92%.