Deportivo Saprissa vs Pérez Zeledón Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Deportivo Saprissa vs Pérez Zeledón
Model pick: Deportivo Saprissa (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.42 – 0.71
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Deportivo Saprissa | Pérez Zeledón |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #7 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 2.0 |
*Deportivo Saprissa shown at home, Pérez Zeledón shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Deportivo Saprissa — last 5
WDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 63% of home games go over 2.5.
Pérez Zeledón — last 5
LDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Deportivo Saprissa (home) | Pérez Zeledón (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 53% |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.42 vs 0.71):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Deportivo Saprissa or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Pérez Zeledón or draw (X2) | 25% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Deportivo Saprissa clean sheet | 49% |
| Pérez Zeledón clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Saprissa is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Deportivo Saprissa are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Deportivo Saprissa vs Pérez Zeledón — FAQ
Who will win Deportivo Saprissa vs Pérez Zeledón?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Saprissa the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Deportivo Saprissa 70%, draw 18%, Pérez Zeledón 12%.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Saprissa vs Pérez Zeledón?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Deportivo Saprissa vs Pérez Zeledón?
Expected goals are 2.42 for Deportivo Saprissa and 0.71 for Pérez Zeledón — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Saprissa vs Pérez Zeledón?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Deportivo Saprissa or draw is 91%.