Dobrudzha vs Beroe Prediction & Preview
B PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
B PFG (BULGARIA)
Dobrudzha vs Beroe
Model pick: Beroe (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.51 – 1.57
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dobrudzha | Beroe |
|---|
| League position | #17 (5 pts) | #6 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Dobrudzha shown at home, Beroe shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dobrudzha — last 5
LLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Beroe — last 5
WLWDD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dobrudzha (home) | Beroe (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.2 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-1-2 in 3 (0.7 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Ivaylo Mihaylov (5) | Facundo Alarcon (2) |
B PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.56
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 46%
Use these B PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.51 vs 1.57):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (20%) |
| Double chance — Dobrudzha or draw (1X) | 36% |
| Double chance — Beroe or draw (X2) | 88% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Dobrudzha clean sheet | 21% |
| Beroe clean sheet | 60% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Beroe is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Despite playing away, Beroe edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dobrudzha vs Beroe — FAQ
Who will win Dobrudzha vs Beroe?
Our statistical model makes Beroe the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Dobrudzha 14%, draw 26%, Beroe 60%.
Will both teams score in Dobrudzha vs Beroe?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Dobrudzha vs Beroe?
Expected goals are 0.51 for Dobrudzha and 1.57 for Beroe — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dobrudzha vs Beroe?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (20%). Double chance for Dobrudzha or draw is 36%.