Dunav vs Slavia Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Dunav vs Slavia Sofia
Model pick: Slavia Sofia (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Dunav | Slavia Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #12 (4 pts) | #8 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 2.0 | 1.3 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Dunav shown at home, Slavia Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Dunav — last 5
LLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Slavia Sofia — last 5
LDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Dunav (home) | Slavia Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-2 in 3 (0.7 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.3 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 42% |
| Top scorer | – | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.32 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Dunav or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Slavia Sofia or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Dunav clean sheet | 25% |
| Slavia Sofia clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Slavia Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Slavia Sofia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Dunav vs Slavia Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Dunav vs Slavia Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Slavia Sofia the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Dunav 34%, draw 28%, Slavia Sofia 38%.
Will both teams score in Dunav vs Slavia Sofia?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Dunav vs Slavia Sofia?
Expected goals are 1.32 for Dunav and 1.4 for Slavia Sofia — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Dunav vs Slavia Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Dunav or draw is 61%.