Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor
Model pick: Fatih Karagümrük (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 0.83
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fatih Karagümrük | Bursaspor |
|---|
| League position | #18 (30 pts) | #3 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.4 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 35% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Fatih Karagümrük shown at home, Bursaspor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük — last 5
WWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Bursaspor — last 5
LWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 59% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fatih Karagümrük (home) | Bursaspor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-8 in 17 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 59% |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 0.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Bursaspor or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet | 44% |
| Bursaspor clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Fatih Karagümrük are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor — FAQ
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor?
Our statistical model makes Fatih Karagümrük the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 50%, draw 28%, Bursaspor 23%.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor?
Expected goals are 1.49 for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.83 for Bursaspor — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Bursaspor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Fatih Karagümrük or draw is 79%.