Guayaquil City vs Libertad Prediction & Preview
Liga Pro (Ecuador) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA PRO (ECUADOR)
Guayaquil City vs Libertad
Model pick: Libertad (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.01 – 1.04
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Guayaquil City | Libertad |
|---|
| League position | #11 (29 pts) | #10 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
*Guayaquil City shown at home, Libertad shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Guayaquil City — last 5
WDDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Libertad — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Guayaquil City (home) | Libertad (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-5-3 in 12 (0.8 / 0.8 goals per game) | 2-4-6 in 12 (0.8 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 42% |
Liga Pro (Ecuador) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Liga Pro (Ecuador) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.01 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Guayaquil City or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Libertad or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Guayaquil City clean sheet | 35% |
| Libertad clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Libertad is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Despite playing away, Libertad edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Guayaquil City vs Libertad — FAQ
Who will win Guayaquil City vs Libertad?
Our statistical model makes Libertad the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Guayaquil City 34%, draw 31%, Libertad 35%.
Will both teams score in Guayaquil City vs Libertad?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Guayaquil City vs Libertad?
Expected goals are 1.01 for Guayaquil City and 1.04 for Libertad — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Guayaquil City vs Libertad?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (14%). Double chance for Guayaquil City or draw is 64%.