Ilves vs Mariehamn Prediction & Preview
Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VEIKKAUSLIIGA (FINLAND)
Ilves vs Mariehamn
Model pick: Ilves (69%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.36 – 0.88
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ilves | Mariehamn |
|---|
| League position | #9 (22 pts) | #12 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.0 | 0.4 / 2.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 2.8 |
*Ilves shown at home, Mariehamn shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ilves — last 5
WLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Mariehamn — last 5
LLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ilves (home) | Mariehamn (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-2 in 8 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-8 in 9 (0.4 / 2.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 44% |
Veikkausliiga (Finland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Veikkausliiga (Finland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.36 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Ilves or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Mariehamn or draw (X2) | 30% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Ilves clean sheet | 41% |
| Mariehamn clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ilves is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. Ilves are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ilves vs Mariehamn — FAQ
Who will win Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model makes Ilves the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: Ilves 69%, draw 18%, Mariehamn 13%.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Expected goals are 2.36 for Ilves and 0.88 for Mariehamn — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Ilves or draw is 88%.