Lafnitz vs Tillmitsch Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Austria) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Lafnitz vs Tillmitsch
Model pick: Lafnitz (88%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 4.21 – 0.78
Total goals: 5.0
Over 2.5: 75%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lafnitz | Tillmitsch |
|---|
| League position | #7 (42 pts) | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.1 / 2.1 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 0.75 / 1.5 |
*Lafnitz shown at home, Tillmitsch shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lafnitz — last 5
DLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 24% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Tillmitsch — last 5
LLLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lafnitz (home) | Tillmitsch (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-4-5 in 15 (2.1 / 2.1 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 24% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 0% |
Regionalliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Regionalliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (4.21 vs 0.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 4-0 (9%) |
| Double chance — Lafnitz or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — Tillmitsch or draw (X2) | 9% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 94% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Lafnitz clean sheet | 46% |
| Tillmitsch clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lafnitz is the model's most likely outcome at
88%. Lafnitz are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.0, this shapes as an open game (75% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lafnitz vs Tillmitsch — FAQ
Who will win Lafnitz vs Tillmitsch?
Our statistical model makes Lafnitz the most likely result at 88%. Full probabilities: Lafnitz 88%, draw 8%, Tillmitsch 4%.
Will both teams score in Lafnitz vs Tillmitsch?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Lafnitz vs Tillmitsch?
Expected goals are 4.21 for Lafnitz and 0.78 for Tillmitsch — about 5.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lafnitz vs Tillmitsch?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 4-0 (9%). Double chance for Lafnitz or draw is 97%.