Leek vs Warrington Town Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Leek vs Warrington Town
Model pick: Warrington Town (78%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.28 – 3.99
Total goals: 5.3
Over 2.5: 77%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Leek | Warrington Town |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Leek shown at home, Warrington Town shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Leek — last 5
DDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Warrington Town — last 5
WDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Leek (home) | Warrington Town (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 48% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.92
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.28 vs 3.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-3 (7%) |
| Double chance — Leek or draw (1X) | 17% |
| Double chance — Warrington Town or draw (X2) | 93% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 91% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Leek clean sheet | 2% |
| Warrington Town clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Warrington Town is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. Despite playing away, Warrington Town edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 5.3, this shapes as an open game (77% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Leek vs Warrington Town — FAQ
Who will win Leek vs Warrington Town?
Our statistical model makes Warrington Town the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: Leek 10%, draw 12%, Warrington Town 78%.
Will both teams score in Leek vs Warrington Town?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Leek vs Warrington Town?
Expected goals are 1.28 for Leek and 3.99 for Warrington Town — about 5.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Leek vs Warrington Town?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-3 (7%). Double chance for Leek or draw is 17%.