Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda
Model pick: Arda (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.98 – 1.16
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Arda |
|---|
| League position | #11 (3 pts) | #5 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Lokomotiv Plovdiv shown at home, Arda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Arda — last 5
DWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 31% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Lokomotiv Plovdiv (home) | Arda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.3 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 31% |
| Top scorer | Mascote (7) | Birsent Karagaren (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.98 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Arda or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet | 31% |
| Arda clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Arda is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Despite playing away, Arda edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda — FAQ
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda?
Our statistical model makes Arda the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 31%, draw 30%, Arda 39%.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda?
Expected goals are 0.98 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.16 for Arda — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw is 60%.