Mačva Šabac vs Partizan Prediction & Preview
Super Liga (Serbia) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIGA (SERBIA)
Mačva Šabac vs Partizan
Model pick: Partizan (76%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.45 – 2.42
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Mačva Šabac | Partizan |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #7 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.0 | 2.6 / 1.0 |
*Mačva Šabac shown at home, Partizan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Mačva Šabac — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Partizan — last 5
WDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 42% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Mačva Šabac (home) | Partizan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 57% |
Super Liga (Serbia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.62
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Super Liga (Serbia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.45 vs 2.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (17%) |
| Double chance — Mačva Šabac or draw (1X) | 19% |
| Double chance — Partizan or draw (X2) | 95% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Mačva Šabac clean sheet | 9% |
| Partizan clean sheet | 64% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Partizan is the model's most likely outcome at
76%. Despite playing away, Partizan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Mačva Šabac vs Partizan — FAQ
Who will win Mačva Šabac vs Partizan?
Our statistical model makes Partizan the most likely result at 76%. Full probabilities: Mačva Šabac 7%, draw 17%, Partizan 76%.
Will both teams score in Mačva Šabac vs Partizan?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Mačva Šabac vs Partizan?
Expected goals are 0.45 for Mačva Šabac and 2.42 for Partizan — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Mačva Šabac vs Partizan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (17%). Double chance for Mačva Šabac or draw is 19%.