Melgar vs ADT Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Melgar vs ADT
Model pick: Melgar (66%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.96 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Melgar | ADT |
|---|
| League position | #5 (31 pts) | #11 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 2.0 |
*Melgar shown at home, ADT shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Melgar — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
ADT — last 5
DDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Melgar (home) | ADT (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 47% |
| Top scorer | – | Jonatan Bauman (5) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.96 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Melgar or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — ADT or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Melgar clean sheet | 48% |
| ADT clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Melgar is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. Melgar are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Melgar vs ADT — FAQ
Who will win Melgar vs ADT?
Our statistical model makes Melgar the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: Melgar 66%, draw 21%, ADT 13%.
Will both teams score in Melgar vs ADT?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Melgar vs ADT?
Expected goals are 1.96 for Melgar and 0.74 for ADT — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Melgar vs ADT?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Melgar or draw is 87%.