Nafta vs Maribor Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Nafta vs Maribor
Model pick: Maribor (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.86 – 1.88
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Nafta | Maribor |
|---|
| League position | #6 (7 pts) | #1 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.3 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Nafta shown at home, Maribor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Nafta — last 5
WWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 12% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Maribor — last 5
DDWDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Nafta (home) | Maribor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (2.0 / 2.3 goals per game) | 0-3-0 in 3 (0.7 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 12% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 56% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.86 vs 1.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Nafta or draw (1X) | 39% |
| Double chance — Maribor or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Nafta clean sheet | 15% |
| Maribor clean sheet | 42% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Maribor is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Despite playing away, Maribor edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Nafta vs Maribor — FAQ
Who will win Nafta vs Maribor?
Our statistical model makes Maribor the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Nafta 19%, draw 24%, Maribor 58%.
Will both teams score in Nafta vs Maribor?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Nafta vs Maribor?
Expected goals are 0.86 for Nafta and 1.88 for Maribor — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Nafta vs Maribor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (12%). Double chance for Nafta or draw is 39%.