Orn vs Sarpsborg 08 2 Prediction & Preview
3 Divisjon (Norway) · Sep 07, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 DIVISJON (NORWAY)
Orn vs Sarpsborg 08 2
Model pick: Orn (57%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.47 – 1.4
Total goals: 3.9
Over 2.5: 65%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Orn | Sarpsborg 08 2 |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 3.6 / 2.0 |
*Orn shown at home, Sarpsborg 08 2 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Orn — last 5
LWLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Sarpsborg 08 2 — last 5
LDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Orn (home) | Sarpsborg 08 2 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
3 Divisjon (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 4.54
Home wins: 50%
Draws: 13%
Away wins: 37%
Over 2.5: 79%
BTTS: 69%
Use these 3 Divisjon (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.47 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Orn or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Sarpsborg 08 2 or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Orn clean sheet | 25% |
| Sarpsborg 08 2 clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Orn is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Orn are backed at home, where they average 0.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.9, this shapes as an open game (65% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Orn vs Sarpsborg 08 2 — FAQ
Who will win Orn vs Sarpsborg 08 2?
Our statistical model makes Orn the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Orn 57%, draw 21%, Sarpsborg 08 2 22%.
Will both teams score in Orn vs Sarpsborg 08 2?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Orn vs Sarpsborg 08 2?
Expected goals are 2.47 for Orn and 1.4 for Sarpsborg 08 2 — about 3.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Orn vs Sarpsborg 08 2?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Orn or draw is 79%.