Radomiak Radom vs Zagłębie Lubin Prediction & Preview
Ekstraklasa (Poland) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 12:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EKSTRAKLASA (POLAND)
Radomiak Radom vs Zagłębie Lubin
Model pick: Radomiak Radom (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.48 – 1.16
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Radomiak Radom | Zagłębie Lubin |
|---|
| League position | #17 (3 pts) | #5 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Radomiak Radom shown at home, Zagłębie Lubin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Radomiak Radom — last 5
LLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 19% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Zagłębie Lubin — last 5
LWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Radomiak Radom (home) | Zagłębie Lubin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 19% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Abdoul Tapsoba (6) | – |
Ekstraklasa (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Ekstraklasa (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.48 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Radomiak Radom or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Zagłębie Lubin or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Radomiak Radom clean sheet | 31% |
| Zagłębie Lubin clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Radomiak Radom is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Radomiak Radom are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Radomiak Radom vs Zagłębie Lubin — FAQ
Who will win Radomiak Radom vs Zagłębie Lubin?
Our statistical model makes Radomiak Radom the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Radomiak Radom 41%, draw 28%, Zagłębie Lubin 31%.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Zagłębie Lubin?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Radomiak Radom vs Zagłębie Lubin?
Expected goals are 1.48 for Radomiak Radom and 1.16 for Zagłębie Lubin — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Radomiak Radom vs Zagłębie Lubin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Radomiak Radom or draw is 70%.