Radomlje vs Aluminij Prediction & Preview
1-SNL (Slovenia) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-SNL (SLOVENIA)
Radomlje vs Aluminij
Model pick: Radomlje (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.62 – 1.23
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Radomlje | Aluminij |
|---|
| League position | #7 (4 pts) | #10 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
*Radomlje shown at home, Aluminij shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Radomlje — last 5
LLDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 13% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Aluminij — last 5
DDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Radomlje (home) | Aluminij (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 13% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% |
1-SNL (Slovenia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-SNL (Slovenia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.62 vs 1.23):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Radomlje or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Aluminij or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Radomlje clean sheet | 29% |
| Aluminij clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Radomlje is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Radomlje are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Radomlje vs Aluminij — FAQ
Who will win Radomlje vs Aluminij?
Our statistical model makes Radomlje the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Radomlje 42%, draw 27%, Aluminij 32%.
Will both teams score in Radomlje vs Aluminij?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Radomlje vs Aluminij?
Expected goals are 1.62 for Radomlje and 1.23 for Aluminij — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Radomlje vs Aluminij?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Radomlje or draw is 71%.