Rizespor vs Samsunspor Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Rizespor vs Samsunspor
Model pick: Rizespor (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Rizespor | Samsunspor |
|---|
| League position | #5 (3 pts) | #12 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Rizespor shown at home, Samsunspor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Rizespor — last 5
LDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Samsunspor — last 5
DWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Rizespor (home) | Samsunspor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 50% |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Rizespor or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Samsunspor or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Rizespor clean sheet | 25% |
| Samsunspor clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Rizespor is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Rizespor are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor — FAQ
Who will win Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model makes Rizespor the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Rizespor 37%, draw 26%, Samsunspor 36%.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Rizespor and 1.4 for Samsunspor — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Rizespor or draw is 63%.