San Lorenzo vs Unión Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Argentina) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (ARGENTINA)
San Lorenzo vs Unión
Model pick: San Lorenzo (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 0.66
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 35%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Lorenzo | Unión |
|---|
| League position | #7 (22 pts) | #8 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.4 |
*San Lorenzo shown at home, Unión shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Lorenzo — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Unión — last 5
DLDLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Lorenzo (home) | Unión (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-3 in 8 (1.2 / 1.4 goals per game) | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.6 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Rodrigo Auzmendi (5) | Cristian Tarragona (7) |
Primera Division (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Primera Division (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 0.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — San Lorenzo or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Unión or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| San Lorenzo clean sheet | 52% |
| Unión clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
San Lorenzo is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. San Lorenzo are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (65% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Lorenzo vs Unión — FAQ
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Unión?
Our statistical model makes San Lorenzo the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: San Lorenzo 42%, draw 34%, Unión 24%.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Unión?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in San Lorenzo vs Unión?
Expected goals are 1.03 for San Lorenzo and 0.66 for Unión — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Lorenzo vs Unión?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for San Lorenzo or draw is 77%.