San Telmo vs Deportivo Morón Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
San Telmo vs Deportivo Morón
Model pick: Deportivo Morón (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.91 – 2.57
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| San Telmo | Deportivo Morón |
|---|
| League position | #16 (23 pts) | #2 (44 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 42% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 1.0 |
*San Telmo shown at home, Deportivo Morón shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
San Telmo — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Morón — last 5
DWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | San Telmo (home) | Deportivo Morón (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-5 in 12 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) | 3-2-6 in 11 (1.2 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 45% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.15
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 20%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.91 vs 2.57):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (10%) |
| Double chance — San Telmo or draw (1X) | 27% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Morón or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 46% / 54% |
| San Telmo clean sheet | 8% |
| Deportivo Morón clean sheet | 40% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Deportivo Morón is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Despite playing away, Deportivo Morón edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ San Telmo vs Deportivo Morón — FAQ
Who will win San Telmo vs Deportivo Morón?
Our statistical model makes Deportivo Morón the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: San Telmo 14%, draw 18%, Deportivo Morón 68%.
Will both teams score in San Telmo vs Deportivo Morón?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in San Telmo vs Deportivo Morón?
Expected goals are 0.91 for San Telmo and 2.57 for Deportivo Morón — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in San Telmo vs Deportivo Morón?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (10%). Double chance for San Telmo or draw is 27%.