SKA Khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva Prediction & Preview
1-division (Russia) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 05:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-DIVISION (RUSSIA)
SKA Khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva
Model pick: Torpedo Moskva (64%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.57 – 2.02
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| SKA Khabarovsk | Torpedo Moskva |
|---|
| League position | #17 (3 pts) | #5 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.7 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.2 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
*SKA Khabarovsk shown at home, Torpedo Moskva shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
SKA Khabarovsk — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 16% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Torpedo Moskva — last 5
DLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | SKA Khabarovsk (home) | Torpedo Moskva (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 2-0-1 in 3 (1.7 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 16% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% |
1-division (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.76
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-division (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.57 vs 2.02):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (15%) |
| Double chance — SKA Khabarovsk or draw (1X) | 28% |
| Double chance — Torpedo Moskva or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| SKA Khabarovsk clean sheet | 13% |
| Torpedo Moskva clean sheet | 57% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Torpedo Moskva is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Despite playing away, Torpedo Moskva edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ SKA Khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva — FAQ
Who will win SKA Khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva?
Our statistical model makes Torpedo Moskva the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: SKA Khabarovsk 14%, draw 23%, Torpedo Moskva 64%.
Will both teams score in SKA Khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in SKA Khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva?
Expected goals are 0.57 for SKA Khabarovsk and 2.02 for Torpedo Moskva — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in SKA Khabarovsk vs Torpedo Moskva?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (15%). Double chance for SKA Khabarovsk or draw is 28%.