Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza
Model pick: Zawisza (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.37
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Stal Stalowa Wola | Zawisza |
|---|
| League position | #14 (6 pts) | #2 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.0 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Stal Stalowa Wola shown at home, Zawisza shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Stal Stalowa Wola — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Zawisza — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Stal Stalowa Wola (home) | Zawisza (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 100% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Stal Stalowa Wola or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Zawisza or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Stal Stalowa Wola clean sheet | 25% |
| Zawisza clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zawisza is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Zawisza edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza — FAQ
Who will win Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza?
Our statistical model makes Zawisza the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Stal Stalowa Wola 32%, draw 28%, Zawisza 41%.
Will both teams score in Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Stal Stalowa Wola and 1.37 for Zawisza — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Stal Stalowa Wola vs Zawisza?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Stal Stalowa Wola or draw is 58%.