Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow
Model pick: Unia Swarzedz (100%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 25.49 – 0.77
Total goals: 26.3
Over 2.5: 1%
Both teams score: 2%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Unia Swarzedz | Notec Czarnkow |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.6 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
*Unia Swarzedz shown at home, Notec Czarnkow shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Unia Swarzedz — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Notec Czarnkow — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Unia Swarzedz (home) | Notec Czarnkow (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (25.49 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 8-0 (32%) |
| Double chance — Unia Swarzedz or draw (1X) | 100% |
| Double chance — Notec Czarnkow or draw (X2) | 0% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 100% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 100% / 0% |
| Unia Swarzedz clean sheet | 46% |
| Notec Czarnkow clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Unia Swarzedz is the model's most likely outcome at
100%. Unia Swarzedz are backed at home, where they average 2.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (99% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow — FAQ
Who will win Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow?
Our statistical model makes Unia Swarzedz the most likely result at 100%. Full probabilities: Unia Swarzedz 100%, draw 0%, Notec Czarnkow 0%.
Will both teams score in Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow?
The model gives a 2% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow?
Expected goals are 25.49 for Unia Swarzedz and 0.77 for Notec Czarnkow — about 26.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Unia Swarzedz vs Notec Czarnkow?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 8-0 (32%). Double chance for Unia Swarzedz or draw is 100%.