Valur vs KA Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Valur vs KA
Model pick: Valur (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.44 – 1.28
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 67%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Valur | KA |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Valur shown at home, KA shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Valur — last 5
WDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
KA — last 5
WDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Valur (home) | KA (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 67% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.21
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.44 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Valur or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — KA or draw (X2) | 37% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 89% / 11% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 51% / 49% |
| Valur clean sheet | 28% |
| KA clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Valur is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Valur are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Valur vs KA — FAQ
Who will win Valur vs KA?
Our statistical model makes Valur the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Valur 50%, draw 23%, KA 28%.
Will both teams score in Valur vs KA?
The model gives a 67% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Valur vs KA?
Expected goals are 2.44 for Valur and 1.28 for KA — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Valur vs KA?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (9%). Double chance for Valur or draw is 81%.