Varnsdorf vs Usti nad Labem Prediction & Preview
Czechia Cup (Czech_Republic) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CZECHIA CUP (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Varnsdorf vs Usti nad Labem
Model pick: Usti nad Labem (78%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.27 – 2.22
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 37%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Varnsdorf | Usti nad Labem |
|---|
| League position | n/a | #4 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Varnsdorf shown at home, Usti nad Labem shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Varnsdorf — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Usti nad Labem — last 5
WWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 60% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Varnsdorf (home) | Usti nad Labem (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
Czechia Cup (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.95
Home wins: 34%
Draws: 0%
Away wins: 66%
Over 2.5: 77%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Czechia Cup (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.27 vs 2.22):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (20%) |
| Double chance — Varnsdorf or draw (1X) | 17% |
| Double chance — Usti nad Labem or draw (X2) | 97% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Varnsdorf clean sheet | 11% |
| Usti nad Labem clean sheet | 76% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Usti nad Labem is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. Despite playing away, Usti nad Labem edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Varnsdorf vs Usti nad Labem — FAQ
Who will win Varnsdorf vs Usti nad Labem?
Our statistical model makes Usti nad Labem the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: Varnsdorf 5%, draw 17%, Usti nad Labem 78%.
Will both teams score in Varnsdorf vs Usti nad Labem?
The model gives a 37% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Varnsdorf vs Usti nad Labem?
Expected goals are 0.27 for Varnsdorf and 2.22 for Usti nad Labem — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Varnsdorf vs Usti nad Labem?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (20%). Double chance for Varnsdorf or draw is 17%.