Vila Nova vs Ceará Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 21:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Vila Nova vs Ceará
Model pick: Vila Nova (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.01
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Vila Nova | Ceará |
|---|
| League position | #3 (41 pts) | #17 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.0 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 73% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Vila Nova shown at home, Ceará shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Vila Nova — last 5
LLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 31% of home games go over 2.5.
Ceará — last 5
WWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 39% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Vila Nova (home) | Ceará (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-2-1 in 11 (2.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-4-5 in 11 (0.9 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 39% |
| Top scorer | Janderson (4) | – |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.39 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Vila Nova or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Ceará or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Vila Nova clean sheet | 36% |
| Ceará clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vila Nova is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Vila Nova are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Vila Nova vs Ceará — FAQ
Who will win Vila Nova vs Ceará?
Our statistical model makes Vila Nova the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Vila Nova 47%, draw 28%, Ceará 25%.
Will both teams score in Vila Nova vs Ceará?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Vila Nova vs Ceará?
Expected goals are 1.39 for Vila Nova and 1.01 for Ceará — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Vila Nova vs Ceará?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Vila Nova or draw is 73%.