Wigry Suwałki vs Lidzbark Warminski Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Wigry Suwałki vs Lidzbark Warminski
Model pick: Wigry Suwałki (64%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.75 – 0.5
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Wigry Suwałki | Lidzbark Warminski |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 2.8 |
*Wigry Suwałki shown at home, Lidzbark Warminski shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Wigry Suwałki — last 5
DWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Lidzbark Warminski — last 5
LDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Wigry Suwałki (home) | Lidzbark Warminski (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.75 vs 0.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Wigry Suwałki or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — Lidzbark Warminski or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Wigry Suwałki clean sheet | 61% |
| Lidzbark Warminski clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Wigry Suwałki is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Wigry Suwałki are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Wigry Suwałki vs Lidzbark Warminski — FAQ
Who will win Wigry Suwałki vs Lidzbark Warminski?
Our statistical model makes Wigry Suwałki the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Wigry Suwałki 64%, draw 24%, Lidzbark Warminski 12%.
Will both teams score in Wigry Suwałki vs Lidzbark Warminski?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Wigry Suwałki vs Lidzbark Warminski?
Expected goals are 1.75 for Wigry Suwałki and 0.5 for Lidzbark Warminski — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Wigry Suwałki vs Lidzbark Warminski?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Wigry Suwałki or draw is 90%.