Yenisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl Prediction & Preview
1-division (Russia) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 09:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-DIVISION (RUSSIA)
Yenisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl
Model pick: Yenisey (41%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.97
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Yenisey | Shinnik Yaroslavl |
|---|
| League position | #12 (9 pts) | #6 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Yenisey shown at home, Shinnik Yaroslavl shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Yenisey — last 5
WDDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 19% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Shinnik Yaroslavl — last 5
DLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Yenisey (home) | Shinnik Yaroslavl (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-0 in 3 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-1-1 in 4 (1.5 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 19% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% |
1-division (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.76
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-division (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.71 vs 1.97):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Yenisey or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Yenisey clean sheet | 14% |
| Shinnik Yaroslavl clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yenisey is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Yenisey are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Yenisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — FAQ
Who will win Yenisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our statistical model makes Yenisey the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Yenisey 41%, draw 28%, Shinnik Yaroslavl 32%.
Will both teams score in Yenisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Yenisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Expected goals are 1.71 for Yenisey and 1.97 for Shinnik Yaroslavl — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Yenisey vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (8%). Double chance for Yenisey or draw is 56%.